Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards

[Mapantz]

Weird looking split sky at the moment

Wareham Weather - Weather Cam

WAREHAMWX.CO.UK

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Live RTSP webcam feed of the sky, pointed toward Poole and Bournemouth, using a Reolink 511WA IP Camera

 

[Metwatch]

Showers east / north east of here lit up nicely by the sunset.

The storms in Dorset look quite interesting but not expecting them to reach here.

[jtay]

T&L over the horizon, to the SW of Salisbury from this...

Edited March 27 by jtay

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in. 

[Metwatch]

Probably closer to hail here but superb capture whoever caught it!

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

that was pretty cool

[ChannelThunder]

JFF of course, and we've got a hell of a lot of weather to get through first, but ECM is throwing up a record(?)-early plume at the end of its 12z. 

[Andy Bown]

Is nocturnal cooling a thing this early in the year!? Perhaps it is with the changing climate!? 

[CoventryWeather]

New cells near Salisbury now seem the main lightning producers. Be interesting to see if they get any further inland, not expecting any here. 

[MP-R]

 Andy Bown Would’ve thought it’s a thing all year Andy.

[Eagle Eye]

31 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in. 

Sounding to prove it. That low-level hook is extremely rare for the UK. 

[Andy Bown]

 MP-R probably it’s just everything kicked off around and just after sunset. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Damn it, just missed out on the fireworks. Missed here by about 12miles.

[Jasper Foxx]

Been quite impressive just outside of Frome.

Security Camera isn't really the best for catching lightning but can see the end of the fork just behind the tree as it disappates. If the Blitzortung is roughly accurate, that went down just about 2 miles south west of me.
 

 

[Southern Storm]

I knew there was going to be some convective activity today but I was under the impression that any storms that developed would be much further west, gutted I wasn't paying attention as I could easily have got to a decent location. Oh well, I did send the drone up for a brief look, not a bad looking storm for march

[The Tall Weatherman]

Tomorrow in the South-western areas looks to be quite interesting as @Eagle Eye pointed out. Locally could expect <1000 j/kg of Surface based Cape tomorrow in the South west and central areas along with a strongly sheared environment (0-1km SRH) that coincides with a curved hodograph. I would not be surprised that if storms matured in this environment especially in the south-west, we could see properly strong storms even later on into the evening hours tomorrow as seen on the Arome model. A tornado seems unlikely but could still happen if the ingredients line up.

[Southern Storm]

 Jasper Foxx awesome, and so it begins

[Eagle Eye]

 The Tall Weatherman

Buoyancy is high, streamwise vorticity in a high LLS environment, if this can line up properly with high 3CAPE which is there and even on that sounding, I see no real reason why there can't be a tornado at all. High momentum inside the storm is likely with conditions for PV towers with potential momentum buildiers as well. However, saturation is often an issue and with the developments here, I think it could be an issue for a lot of the strongest hooked places. Longest lasting storms will have the best chance, it's not a real early type of event, instead, a tornado would want the air parcel to have the longest time to take up energy. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

 Eagle Eye One heck of a profile that is for UK standards. If only we had >1000 J/Kg of CAPE...

Just hoping we get sufficient instability to build with enough diurnal heating. Definitely capable of a low-topped supercell with large 3CAPE.

Edited March 27 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

 Ben Sainsbury Quite often the case with the UK, it's of ifs and buts... 

If anything, if it was summer, we could well have that much energy. However, this setup won't happen in summer because of sods law. 

Edited March 27 by Eagle Eye

[WeatherArc]

Completely agree with @Eagle Eye and @The Tall Weatherman

Pretty decent environment 

Effective helicity over 300, almost a dixie alley type hodograph with lots of speed shear. Your 850mb winds are reaching around 60 knots! 

mlcape under 300 here but could have areas with higher values, thing that stands out to me is the instability in lowest 3km, ive seen some other soundings with 3cape in excess of 100. That level of instability concentrated in the lowest levels with that hodograph does interest me. 

Dry slot at 700mb also noted. 

Will just depend on whether cells can sustain with the low cape or not, would defo watch any of the strongest cells that can develop tmrw. 

[Andy Bown]

 Jasper Foxx that’s great. If you use Facebook go to Spotted in Warminster Town for a remarkable video doorbell shot! 

[WeatherArc]

 Eagle Eye @Ben Sainsbury Seems in winter and spring we have these powerful lows come through with strong low and deep level shear but just not enough heating or moisture to give us any sufficient instability and then in summer we have good instability but never enough shear to do anything interesting, plus lapse rates become a bit iffy the later we go on.

One of these years though we'll get lucky, hopefully its this year 

I think the key to tornado or just severe convective events in the UK is having a spanish plume or trough park itself off to the west/southwest that supplies warmth and moisture, then have a surface low develop that can enhance low level shear. Thats my thinking anyway. 

 

This is from tornado archives from the Birmingham 2005 tornado*

[Willsy]

looks like there’s another active storm moving up through similar areas from earlier. bit of back building/ training in action. great to see so early in the year 

[ChannelThunder]

Wool area (Dorset) lighting up AGAIN today! Storm magnet