Moans, ramps and banter

[B87]

 Scorcher London is about 1c warmer than Edmonton for summer average highs (comparing airport to airport).

Jun: 21.6c vs 20.7c

Jul: 23.9c vs 23.0c

Aug: 23.4c vs 22.4c

[SunSean]

Spring 2024 so far!

[MP-R]

 Bristawl Si Need to de grime my patio but it needs 2 days of guaranteed dry after so, of course, haven’t done it yet and I’m going away next week!

[richie3846]

 Scorcher my mum down in Swansea is fuming. Two days of utter carp. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

[Metwatch]

Couldn't really fault today apart from the moderate SE'ly breeze but even that didn't feel cold anymore. Probably added up another 10 hours of sunshine today, bringing the monthly total to over 135 hours, not too far from the average of 147 hours.

Also a great example of cloud streets or horizontal convective rolls this afternoon:

Edited April 30 by Metwatch

[markyo]

 SunSean I was right!.....sorry mate couldn't resist..Honestly hope it clears up soon for a better May sunshine wise, you must be going crackers with all this cloud. 

[WYorksWeather]

And GFS tonight throws the high pressure for next week out the window, after the wobble from the ECM this morning. GEM still good tonight, but I have a sinking feeling about where this is going again - we've only been here about 27,461 times since last June. You'd practically put money on the worst possible option verifying as far as any sort of prolonged dry spell for the UK. The wait has to end at some point though...

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Summer8906 Very much the case out there, especially in Alberta and BC. 

When I visited Calgary and the rocky mountains a few years back, I was checking the weather closely in the few weeks before we arrived there. In May it went from 30c, to snowing, back to 30c again. During my 2 weeks there it was a mix hail, some snow at elevation, and then solid days of sunny and 20-30c (this was in June). 

Its a mix but it quickly flips back to pleasant conditions again. I'd honestly rather have that than the UK's situation wherein we get stuck in the same 10-15c and mostly cloudy pattern for literally weeks (or months) on end.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 *Stormforce~beka* another day in Cloudshester, Cloudshire eh

[Josh Rubio]

So settled weather being shown on day 10 models are now being replaced by much cooler and unsettled weather? Shock(!)

[Alderc 2.0]

Gfs in full backtrack mode, what a dreadful chart now on D10, ECM chart for D10 is almost identical as well.

Edited April 30 by Alderc 2.0

[Andy Bown]

I’ve had a quick run through 15z temperatures on the whole latest GFS run and I’m sure I can’t see a 20c anywhere. The highest looks to be tomorrow at 19c! 

Edited April 30 by Andy Bown

[reef]

13.3 hours of sunshine today, so the most since 5th September. Previous to today only 30th March and 21st April had more than 9.0 hours. Such a write-off has Spring been so far.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons It was fine til 330pm. We just can't manage a full day of sun!!

[danm]

 WYorksWeather GFS mean still looks good. Probably just an Op run wobble. 

[Alderc 2.0]

 danm  problem is the Ops run has been against the mean for 3 or 4 times consecutively now. When it does that it’s usually sniffing something out. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 anything that far out is crystal ball stuff tbh. It'll probably change numerous times between now and then.

The forecast for the BH Sat and Sunday in my area has changed from 18/19c and sunny to 15c and rainy and now back up to 18c and mostly sunny again, all in the space of the last 24 hours

[Scorcher]

Everyone is getting hysterical about the charts for next week but no one has mentioned that the weekend has improved again- much better charts from the ECM and UKMO.

As I said 2 days ago, there is a lot of uncertainty even 3 or 4 days out so I wouldn't be getting despondent about next week.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

[CryoraptorA303]

 Scorcher I hope Saturday is fine, I'm going to a wedding. I'm not really bothered about temps as long as it's 16°C or higher, which seems highly likely at this time of year when any Sun is involved, I just don't want it to be overcast all day or raining.

[Don]

After a chilly start, this afternoon was warmish but sun never quite made an appearance.  Back to rain this evening.....

[raz.org.rain]

Surprisingly mild night, feels more like an average summer night.

 Scorcher judging by some of the posts around here, forecasts are only reliable when they're forecasting crap. Anything remotely nice is fantasy or will get downgraded.

[danm]

 Alderc 2.0 maybe, maybe not. Let’s see what the morning runs say. ECM mean also still looking very good. 

[CryoraptorA303]

The infamous May heat spike that occurs in so many of this year's proposed analogues is coming up, so I'd be inclined to err on the side of a notable warm spell occuring when it's being suggested.

All of them that occured in analogues reached at least 25°C, and almost all of them higher, so we can expect at least this warm for at least a day. How much wet soil may nerf the spell depends on how much it's able to dry between now and when it happens. At this time of year the Sun is very strong now, even a few days with a few hours of sunlight would likely significantly reduce the amount of wet soil, and by that point most of the nerfing effect is already gone.

Most of the soil here had already mostly dried out until we got another 28mm over the weekend. This did wet things up a bit again but assuming only a few more mm or less falls between now and the spell then you can pretty much guarentee that we'll be back to where we were before it by then with how strong the Sun is now.