Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[LRD]

If it's cold you want, the 6z GFS is looking good from Friday next week. What a contrast it could be in terms of conditions and temps to this weekend's benign bore

[LRD]

As Nick says, MOGREPS better this morning. Not great but it's better for cold prospects from this time next week than last night's suite looked

 

[Battleground Snow]

That's quite an adjustment south with the cold air on the mean, things looking positive for some snow for the south on Thursday 

[Lukesluckybunch]

26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 6z has very nice wedge at T144, helps the cold flood south b

The gefs mean also has that wedge of heights...your referring too mike!

[CoventryWeather]

Not a bad chart for mid Feb. 

[frosty ground]

 CoventryWeather

I have seen worse 

[MJB]

33 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Over before it started in this run?Azores high wants too ruin things

Settle for that though Luke 

[Ali1977]

That would do ️ and rival 2018 

Edited February 2 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Deffinate shift South with the low at 156 on the mean..problem is we have the Azores high pointing northeast behind the low..could it mean the cold is short-lived like the op showed..hope not!

Edited February 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[CoventryWeather]

 Lukesluckybunch if we have a short lived snowy spell then a weak wedge that moves NE to Scandi, I think most people would take that TBF..

[Ali1977]

Control at 162 - things are getting exciting again!! Early days though 

[Day 10]

 TEITS

Not half! Absolute belter!

[MJB]

JFF of course

 

If this verified, I'd be happy with this as an end to Winter 

[Rain All Night]

13 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

12z ensemble means, Fri 2nd to Fri 16th (day 15)

ECM briefly gives us a mean northerly over the UK on 10th/11th Feb. I've noticed that these means are all showing the big low clearing away from us a little more quickly than had previously been suggested - it now looks likely that we will be out of its influence by Monday 12th Feb. The height rises that follow soon after it departs are really rather striking, particularly on the GEM, and though they may amount to nothing more than an Azores high extension over the UK, there is scope at this range for this signal to result in something altogether more interesting. Either way, it doesn't look like we need to brace ourselves for any more than about four or so days of wet weather late next week.

12z deterministic runs, Thu 8th (day 7)

I'll show a broad selection of models this evening, since some of them are showing snow events at this timeframe.

0z/6z deterministic runs, Fri 2nd to Fri 9th (day 7)

GEM is what we'd wish for, ECM/UKMO are what I suspect we will get. But you never know...

0z ensemble means, Fri 2nd to Sat 17th (day 15)

We have slightly more agreement now on a (brief) mean northerly on 10th/11th Feb. Again the passage of the low through us is looking a little faster, it looks to be over with by the start of Monday 12th Feb. The later height rise has slipped east a bit on the ECM ensemble, making it less appealing, though it is still leaning against a trough downstream over Scandinavia and eastern Europe. GEM's version, while still further west, doesn't look quite as striking as in previous runs. Nonetheless, it's still a strong signal for high pressure to take back control in some form.

[Ali1977]

THIS IS THE BEST CHART OF THE YEAR - a mean at 180 showing nationwide snow pretty much !  

Edited February 2 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

THIS IS THE BEST CHART OF THE YEAR - a mean at 168 showing nationwide snow pretty much !  

Yes the mean is considerably better ali.. -8 as a mean at day 8!wow

Edited February 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[joggs]

 TEITS kudos mate.

[Met4Cast]

We've probably got a window of opportunity for cold weather interests 10th-20th February. Away from a few deterministic runs though we're not really seeing much of a signal for strong high latitude blocking, the cold being signalled within this period from NWP modelling is mostly Scandi trough driven with the Atlantic jet south shifted in response to the recent surge in momentum.

Indeed, the ECM mean shows the above quite well. No real block but strong Scandi trough signal funnelling cold air southwards across the UK and more broadly NW Europe.

AAM tendency is now falling following the passage of the MJO into the Pacific and where we go from there is rather uncertain, especially when you factor in the (for now) potential of yet another SSW. The lack of any real sustained blocking appearing on NWP modelling is a concern for me re: longevity of any potential colder patterns, we don't really want to be relying on nothing more than a Scandi trough. Certainly those in the north are far more certain to see something of interest vs those of us in the south based on current modelling. 

Still a long way off with quite a few different variables at play, in any case though - Certainly colder than we've seen recently.

[Methuselah]

 Ali1977: And, what with the modern propensity for going from one extreme to the other (19.9C in January being one such extreme) I wouldn't be all that surprised were it to verify, in one form or another.

Edited February 2 by Methuselah

[Chesil View]

 That ECM

Good post ECM.

We have a range of cold options on the table going forward the unclear part is how and where  and how much the Atlantic Intrusions affect that situation later next week.

[feb1991blizzard]

30 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The lack of any real sustained blocking appearing on NWP modelling

[Met4Cast]

 feb1991blizzard 

Yes, single deterministic runs approaching day 15 aren’t really worth getting excited about.. 

Especially given the current lack of ensemble support for that solution. 

[Froze were the Days]

Good old 06z still throwing out the more extreme runs...ditch!

[feb1991blizzard]

 Met4Cast

[AO-]

Just to visualize:

 

The 06EPS vs the 00EPS. Quite an improvement. The number of easterlies increasing. With some snow it would be a great scenario. The EPS is following the Control and operational of the 00h. Let's see if it is a trend EC picks up tonight.