Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[johnholmes]

Sorry I don't usually repeat my posts but I missed a part off, quite significant so here it is

Not a full post but just showing the latest NOAA 6-14 day charts. Both have a gneral rather cold westerly 500 MB pattern. Not yet showing any signal for deep cold from a northerly point.

The contour over southern England on the 6-10 day is 534 DM which is quite cold so even lower further north. Any ppn in the north would likely be snow and over most hills further south possibly lower at times depending on the actual synoptic pattern.

Add there is a -ve height anomaly over the UK. In spite of the broad westerly at 500 mb this may be a signal for a surface feature to be over/east of the UK. Perhaps picking up on my highlighted original post. Maybe the ECMWF output may show this, I'll go have a look.

[Eagle Eye]

Can we pretend this isn't at like day 15.

Its a CAD episode if it did come off. 

Edited February 2 by Eagle Eye

[jules216]

What is most bemusing we Can have 2 major stratospheric warmings this winter yet surface outcome overall with about +2/+3 anomally this winter is as mild as some previous winters with no SSW and record strong vortex. We are talking here of possible cold snap after 10.2 with "maybe" a day or two of T850hPa approaching -6/-8 after about 3 weeks of no winter synoptics. I wonder did anyone actually realize how little effect the relatively weak vortex this winter had on troposferic outcome. If I take my location there is 0 difference between this winter and some of the most recent mildest winters.

[Battleground Snow]

Looks like the mjo plots have had a malfunction today, and the ecm hasn't even updated.

But generally looks on track to stay away from cod and get to phase 8 in 10 days or so

[Lukesluckybunch]

Who else is excited for the 12z runs...let's hope we pick up an increasingly cold and snowy outlook..approaching next weekend!

[MJB]

 

Well worth a watch 

 

 

 

[SussexSnow]

Blimey - over the past couple of weeks I've been following the models quite loosely, just checking the latest GFS ensemble when I remember, and today I saw more agreement on something interesting next week.  Only then did I peruse the other models...  Goodness the latest GEM is some eye candy. 

I'm back baby! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

31 minutes ago, MJB said:

Well worth a watch 

Very encouraging..add the ec46 to that and we could be onto somthing!

[bluearmy]

 Met4Cast looking through the stamps NH profile, I wouldn’t wonder about clusters too much

 

06z control further south 

[Pembroke Dangler]

 bluearmy Is that the ecm 6z control further south? 

[bluearmy]

 Pembroke Dangler yep

not worth analysis at day 6 yet but would be nice to start seeing the envelope narrow down 

[Pembroke Dangler]

 bluearmy Thanks for that feels like the middle of January system a bit, could miss to the south altogether and head into France at this rate

[bluearmy]

 Pembroke Dangler don’t see this system in that way atm - January was an Azores low escaping ne and fighting against the northerly. This system is different but still is some way from pinning down ref wedges, northerly and the phasing which will dictate how much it deepens. It could be that it disrupts and the second system is the one that hits. Could also run straight through n England. very uncertain indeed. 

[E17boy]

 Pembroke Dangler lol hope not this time. I am in London and was gutted  in January seeing we were so close to the snow yet so far. I was just about to give up hope for this season but the output since yesterday has calmed my nerves a bit. Can we make it to the end this time?

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND CONTINUES 

[Pembroke Dangler]

 E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe.

[Ali1977]

The low on the 06z EC Control Is certainly further south than on the previous run!! And better heights into Labrador 

Edited February 2 by Ali1977

[chris55]

 TillyS where’s the fun in that lol  

[Norrance]

Please go to the appropriate thread if you wish to discuss theMet O update.

Thanks.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Don't be looking at the ICON guys. ..it's a real mess not what we want!

[northwestsnow]

ICON is a big downgrade.

12z v 6z 168

[Norrance]

Any further Met O posts will disappear!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON is a big downgrade.

Bit like the ecm..touch and go if we enter the cold air or not..in fact ecm had milder uppers across central and eastern europe..cold uppers were limited to Scandinavia..hopefully ICON has modelled the low wrong..and it's cold and white!

Edited February 2 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Snowman.]

 northwestsnow

Gone UKMO route.

[nick sussex]

The ICON 12 hrs run is wildly different from its 00hrs run . This isn’t just the area around the UK so it’s questionable whether it’s found the right evolution now .

[northwestsnow]

 nick sussex hopefully not nick..big 12z runs ..