Model banter and emotions

[Sweatyman]

 bluearmy Wow incredible falls

[Big Gally]

 Ali1977 good for the north.

[Johnp]

Horrendous ECM, low just sitting there and filling. 

[CoventryWeather]

Weather forecasting a funny old thing isn't it?!

But still feel the southern low track is the most likely scenario here. 

Back to square one. 

Edit: not quite sure why it's moved here as it's definitely model discussion. 

Edited February 4 by CoventryWeather

[beefy201]

More rain and windy weather south of Manchester again

[winterof79]

 ANYWEATHER Ill post some pics end of week

[Don]

 blizzard81 Just a shame there is still so much uncertainty which makes for a bumpy ride!! 

Lets hope there's a Monday morning upgrade, rather than a downgrade! 

 

[northwestsnow]

God I hate GFS.

[Froze were the Days]

 northwestsnow Don't watch it...usually it's the model that bangs on the cold drum with some OTT runs but it doesn't want to know this time. It keeps trying to deliver in deep FI but will probably come to fruition eventually once we get into March.

[seabreeze86]

 nick sussex There was a time when the UKMO at day 4 was concrete. Not any more it seems 

[nick sussex]

 frosty ground

The UKMO is woeful compared to its 00hrs output at day 6 .

An embarrassing climbdown . 

[frosty ground]

 nick sussex

day 6 different…. knock me down with a feather.

when you say capitulation what do you actually mean?

what has it capitulated too? 

[nick sussex]

Where’s the northern blocking gone .

After nearly 3 weeks of crud we’re left chasing a snow to rain event for some areas .

The UKMO has been completely wrong at T96 hrs .

We now await the ECM to salvage proceedings ! 

[chrisnoy]

Was hoping that the signals for the weekend and next week of blocking over Scandi or to the NW, or even a UK high were tangible. Now it seems we are back to square one with Atlantic flow, mild and mucky. The Iberian heights are still there to the South.

What a let down, time to throw in the towel on this winter now. Hope for a dry and warm spring, but I guess it will be cold and dull.....

[goosey007]

So in summary transient snow Birmingham northward….all rain or sleet south of that and no extensive northern blocking and finally ukmo model is now cannon fodder

[Niall K]

Calm…… simmer…… exeter still sticking to their guns. Alot yet to be resolved…. Plenty of time for upgrades. Still in the hunt. 

[frosty ground]

 nick sussex

snow to snow for some.

GEM not worth a comment?

 

[andy989]

And there goes the mod thread once again. 

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Utterly a mess at the moment. 

FI about 48 hours. No consistency in model output. 

I'm going off for a bit. No point looking at individual runs. Let's see what the ensembles think and discuss from there.

I would say it's the writing on the wall. Watch the Ecm follow the gfs .....

[Derecho]

It seems the only SSWs to affect the UK this winter are Sudden South Westerlies...

A struggle to get into MJO phase 8, record high February global temperatures and a lack of northern blocking have worked against us in what has been a stinker of a winter.

I think I'll only get interested again if we see another beast from the east. The EC does go into phase 8 but it takes too long. We'd only feel the effects in early March.

By that point I will be bullishly looking for the first 21C rather then having increased heating bills when the best we'd probably get by March is most likely snow showers with accumulations quickly melting by day (unless we got something really notable).

Roll on Spring! I've had enough of winter 2023/24!

[nick sussex]

There’s no point in trying to spin scraps off the buffet table .

The outputs are going in the wrong direction . The ECM to come but really I’m not holding my breath ! 

[ANYWEATHER]

 frosty ground

[frosty ground]

 nick sussex I think the moans thread is a more suitable place for your post Nick!

[swfc]

 nick sussex tbh nick its just bog standard weather ie uk over the last few winters etc. 

[E17boy]

This is how I sum up todays output