Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Allseasons-Si]

Northern blocking gaining foothold to our NW on the latest CPC

AO taking a tanking

E/NE probability winds also gaining traction mid month.

and as for Thurdays low,it is too early to say just yet where it positions but i bet there will be some surprise snowfall for some

[LRD]

MOGREPS 12z

Nothing in the south for later this week. So it looks like a lot of rain. A gentle fall in 850s towards Valentine's Day but nothing to write home about here

The north is looking much more reliably cold in the longer term and looking cold this week too. Transient snow possible before a (temporary?) Friday/weekend warm-up. Manchester:

 

Edited February 5 by LRD

[SLEETY]

Ecm op run mildest run again, right at the top again. What a surprise NOT!! 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

op run mildest run again, right at the top again. What a surprise NOT!! 

Bbc weather week ahead 10 day trend..just went for cold northeasterlys..next week!hopefully models will latch onto it!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Them ec46 anomalies are really brilliant!

[MKN]

Gfs looks to have nailed this more or less barring the fine detail. Thursday should see snow north mids northwards but turning to rain for most of England relatively quickly. Cold hanging on in Scotland. 

[Tim Bland]

 Ali1977 we are “near the time” though unfortunately …it’s only a couple of days away now. Not expecting settling snow south of Leeds away from high ground. a few hours of sleet for some perhaps 

[ANYWEATHER]

 Lukesluckybunch that was from the Ecm 00z morning run today.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

that was from the Ecm 00z morning run today.

Oh right...but still I think they've been consistent for a while now

[Ali1977]

 Tim Bland agree, might see some very wet snow for 30 mins then sleet to rain - if I’m lucky!! Not all that fussed for that!  

[blizzard81]

 ANYWEATHER Yep. As I've just explained in the Yorkshire thread, most of us on here are ahead of the TV/Meto forecasts as they are using old data. We are always looking at the fresh, up to date data so we are always ahead. 

[CoventryWeather]

 MKN it hasn't. Models have been rather poor recently. I doubt they've got the solution right, expecting more differences throughout tomorrow. 

[blizzard81]

 CoventryWeather But they have all now converged on a rotund limpet low that sticks to us like...... Very unlikely for any of the models to revert back now to a more oval and disrupted low - even for the biggest optimists. 

[Ali1977]

Pub run - come on, big correction south then awesome day 8 and beyond please

Edited February 5 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

 Ali1977 looking forward to your snowy upgrade update in 5 mins!!!

[CoventryWeather]

 blizzard81 I know. but there's still a fair few solutions in the ensembles.

[Lukesluckybunch]

I think it could be tomorrow afternoon before the low on Thursday is decided!

[Mcconnor8]

 Ali1977 ICON 18z and GFS 18z both look further North than their respective 12z runs.

[Nick123]

 blizzard81 it's a very brave (or possibly foolish) call to say we are ahead of the professionals. They have much more data (and experience) than all of us put together even if it is old data they must have some reason to be as bullish as they are

[andymusic]

 Nick123 absoflippinlutely

[Ali1977]

 Mcconnor8 typical 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Slightly further north!

[Marting]

I was actually thinking the 18z is looking flatter at 66hrs, temps no real difference

[CoventryWeather]

Want to wake up at 7 to a big shift south by all models please! 

[legritter]

 Lukesluckybunch Down a bit cheers .