Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Mcconnor8]

 Purga If we do eventually get an Easterly at this rate it is going to be the warmest February easterly ever 

[AO-]

 Dennis

Lol, 8 cm IMBY. Let's wait and see what happens. 

Edited February 6 by AO-

[TEITS]

You have to laugh really. The Icon 0Z wants to take part of the split LP to Iceland and the 06Z sends it to France. Apart from the obvious uncertainty of who may receive snowfall this massively affects beyond. 

So what is causing this poor inconsistent output from all models? 

My only explanation is I honestly believe these models are programmed with some historical weather patterns into them. So when we are in a period outside of the normal W-E,SW-NE movement of low pressure. The mathematical equations want to send the low SE but the programmed bias wants to send it NE.

Could be completely wrong but that has been my experience of following these models over many years.

[Ali1977]

METO gets rid of midlands warning but GFS still showing some frontal snow but it quickly moves north 

Edited February 6 by Ali1977

[Mcconnor8]

 TEITS I don't think they are programmed in this way, only with the mathematical equations and not with historical weather patterns, it is the AI models which use historical weather to calculate future patterns. It is just a very complex situation with this low and small differences lead to large movement in the shape of the low and its track.

[IDO]

I would agree with the Met and that the main risk is the north especially hills and high ASL:

The Midlands is snow to rain on high ground.

[Lukesluckybunch]

So into Friday the ICON..takes the low further south..and gfs wants it north..what is going on here?

Edited February 6 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Met4Cast]

The GEFS aren’t all that interested in colder weather in the extended with the mean comfortably above average. 

The EPS on the other hand are a complete dogs dinner, I don’t think i’ve ever seen such a large spread! 

[Dennis]

 Lukesluckybunch

its a pressure rise N from that low thats incoming in some ideas.....so a stop to move northways 

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch Both are similar at T90 on the 06z:

The GFS is stalling the front as it edges north so continuous snow for two days as it moves from M62 to N Scotland.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Notice the heights west of iberia..negatively pointed..hopefully this will give the chance at least...for the low to sink in and move southeast..less pressure on it..but I'm looking out for holes to appear north of the low

[IDO]

The GFS stalling the front means that EC and GFS arrive at the same point with up to a 24 hour variation:

T96 EC and T120 GFS.

But good agreement that there is no return of the front south; the GFS op 0z was an anomaly. Cross-model agreement finally on that stage.

Let us see if we can get any consistency post this period.

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS even more progressive with disrupting the area of low pressure close to the UK

 

An evolution worth watching, I think milder air will push across most of the UK at the end of the week but an easterly through the back door so to speak could be possible. Just a shame that the 850s are not conductive for snow at this point.

Edited February 6 by Captain Shortwave

[Purga]

A slider Low and pressure high over Scandi and we still manage to get a ugly slug of mild - you couldn't make it up...

[CoventryWeather]

Better runs, seems to have been a tad shift south again. Perhaps bias on models to push the low northwards? Seems more likely now to push east or south east again..

[Lukesluckybunch]

Real right squeeze..but it could make it by day 7!

Just now, CoventryWeather said:

Better runs, seems to have been a tad shift south again. Perhaps bias on models to push the low northwards? Seems more likely now to push east or south east again..

Great point...what usually happens

[andy989]

Regarding Thursdays Snow, for those who are in with a shot. It will very much be now casting. I’m inside the warning zone and at an altitude of 1002ft but the metoffice has me as rain. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

And what a surprise..the cold air getting stuck over eastern Europe!

[IDO]

 Lukesluckybunch I mentioned earlier that Siberian highs are frustrating as the UK ends up in no-mans zone, between the Atlantic and the High with the Iberian ridge getting pumped up. D8:

 

Edited February 6 by IDO

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

I mentioned earlier that Siberian highs are frustrating as the UK ends up in no-mans zone, between the Atlantic and the High with the Iberian ridge getting pumped up. D8:

I've always said a hp good for the uk is somewhere between iceland and norway!regarding the Siberian high..I agree,the exception being the BFTE

[Battleground Snow]

Wow arpege much further south than the gfs.

Whether it settles or not is another story, but will be nice to see falling snow here at least.

@sheikhy

Edited February 6 by Battleground Snow

[frosty ground]

 IDO 

I think you need the jet to cut back around the high to force the cold air westwards, Siberian highs tend to lack that feature as you say 

[bluearmy]

14 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - SSW likely now.

Eps mean is now reversal displacement to scrussia on the 00z run. Gefs the same 

Assume the 46 will now show a change to take way more members negative 

tbh, could do without any splitting shenanigans and for the displaced vortex to stay over scandi - less risky 

[IDO]

We have a two wave pattern, but Alaskan Ridge and Iberian ridge with a weak Arctic high and Siberian block at D10:

We will probably need some jiggery pokery to get anything from a setup like this, snow-wise anyway.

[bluearmy]

 IDO maybe the best chance we have of a memorable end to this winter would be a strike from a meandering deeply cold pool ???  Even though the scandi route is likely to lead to what you say, a scandi ridge slowly transferring west would presumably give us a chance of something frigid caught in the flow ??