Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[AO-]

The only people happy with tonights charts are the ones in Spain who get a significant amount of rain. Where the shortwave first was calculated to track northeast, it now goes Southeast. If it could only go east instead... Then all the problems are solved.

[bluearmy]

 Stephen W way too early to make that judgment because the reversal is still too far away

 

[SunnyG]

 AO- I am happy too and I am not in Spain

[Daniel*]

We really should be seeing better here, at day 3, polar jet deflected well south and yet lows are meandering around our vicinity, sums up our luck this winter though - totally nonexistent.

[Allseasons-Si]

I would say that the gefs mean is a notch up on the 06z regarding heights to our NW

Edited February 6 by Allseasons-Si
typo

[AO-]

 Daniel*

I was wondering about the performance of this winter in terms of statistics Daniel. Do you have any idea? 

[Daniel*]

The refusal of low to ease or drop south is quite something 72hrs > 120hrs, it even goes north it almost appears to go against the laws of physics with rising pressure to northeast. Some of most frustrating output I’ve ever seen.

Edited February 6 by Daniel*

[Spah1]

Looking Good Midlands North. 
 

North Wales and Northern Hills may well go Amber tomorrow. 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Not much Azores influence on the ecm at 120...surely a good thing

[Cloud 10]

 Allseasons-Si

 

The pressure anomaly ens. means look great for the end of week 2 (ECM very similar) but patience (yet more!) may be needed to get some decent cold dragged in.

 

[SLEETY]

 Rob 79812010 is it because your using the gfs op to come to that assumption.op was a mild run from the pack.gfs worse performing in the verification stats too.If gfs op only  went to 168 hours we wouldnt have this overreaction to every gfs run

Stop looking at the op runs and thinking thats the final solution,doesnt work like that.

[Mcconnor8]

 Lukesluckybunch 

Don't worry at T+144 it is on its way 

[That ECM]

T168. Struggling to see the way forward.

[Lukesluckybunch]

These long range ecm 46 forecasts are gonna be looking quite silly!ecm is really quite bad

[nick sussex]

Did coldies do something bad in a previous life .

We seem to be seeing a series of misadventures where everything that can go wrong does !

I think it might have been less annoying if we had a raging PV but even when the NH was primed to deliver cold something then popped up .

The limpet low arrives on the scene at T48 hrs and is still influencing events at T192 hrs .

It morphs into a trigger type low at that point which needs to head se allowing high pressure to extend sw .

[Stuie]

 nick sussex lol, Nick. Let`s blame the French (Meteociel)

[Harsh Climate]

Models are all over the place at the moment and no surprise as many clearly can't even get Thursdays event right even at this range!

I feel we are going to get a colder feed in eventually from the NE/E next week with possibly something bigger on the horizon.

 

Edited February 6 by Harsh Climate

[Tim Bland]

 Spah1 shame it turns to rain soon after. Somewhere like Birmingham is up to 6c by evening and double digits Friday

[nick sussex]

So a bloated Siberian High which is mutton dressed as lamb v Atlantic .

We’ve seen this episode many times before .

It tends to end in tears , the bloated high looks good on the charts but normally  delivers a big fat zero for coldies .

The smaller Scandi high is what we want to see .

[Drifter]

 Spah1 You’re not going to get an amber warning for a couple of hours of snow that soon turns to rain. 

[KTtom]

Just read the Mets forecast after seeing it mentioned a few times here...maybe the ECM day 10 (yes i know) is something akin to what they expect? Certainly nothing else even close on show to matching their text although a long way from a 'northerly'.

Edited February 6 by KTtom

[blizzard81]

 nick sussex It's something I've noticed over the last 15 years - the limpet UK low that seems to stick like ****. I'll say glue on this ocassion. Back in the 80's that front on Thursday would have slid on it's axis and veered south/south eastwards into Europe bring in frigid easterlies. 

Edited February 6 by blizzard81

[AO-]

EC following the rest tonight with dreadful output and a battle in the end between the Beast from the East and the Atlantic. I wonder where the fire up of the Atlantic suddenly comes from. It is the most curious case of model watching I have seen. Not quite easy to predict what is going to happen with the weather systems as it is against all odds what the output shows. We could be seeing something quite different tomorrow by this time. 

Edited February 6 by AO-

[nick sussex]

I’m close to wheeling out my film analogies !

This is a bad sign for coldies . We seem to be like a dog chasing its tail !

Fair enough some parts might see some snow over the next few days but a lot of that turns to rain unless the models stall the fronts .

Crunchy snow that you can enjoy for a few days at present seems a huge struggle .

I’m going to give it a few more days to see what happens to the ne and then  Ripley will be wheeled out if there’s no signs of life or the Alien Queen hasn’t been blown out into space .

If things look very ugly then expect the code red Poltergeist clown to be wheeled out !

We need a change of luck and the limpet low needs to cancel its European tour .

[johnwirral]

 Spah1 Looks like the models are correcting North