Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Alderc 2.0]

 Gowon  ECM really isn’t much better….

[Gowon]

 Alderc 2.0 I'll take slightly better.

[Sherry]

 Alderc 2.0 it’s just a continuation of what we’ve had for months, it’s pretty much the norm and I imagine it will continue like this for the majority of the year going forward not much to change the pattern happening 

[Rain All Night]

9 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

12z/18z deterministic runs, out to Wed 27th (day 7)

I tried so hard to find a friend for the ECM 12z.

12z/18z ensemble means, out to Thu 4th (day 15)

Now it's ECM, not GEFS, putting extra heights on the map.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)

ECM still different, though not as drastically so.

0z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)

We're now looking for a signal for what will happen after Easter, and we're not getting one yet.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Sherry Is there any basis for the idea that this pattern will just continue indefinitely, other than simply that it's "been going on a long time already"?

The last several years have predominantly comprised of flips/shifts between prolonged periods of wetter and cloudier, and drier and sunnier. 

So, I don't see why this current period would be any exception, even if it is more protracted than the previous cloudier and wetter period (in 2021 to early 2022). 

During the protracted dry and sunny period in 2022 to early 2023, I remember many people saying that "this is now the norm" and that it's what climate change "has in store for us". It felt like we truly had a new type of British climate. Now, it's the flipside to that, and it equally feels like a new type of climate. 

Edited March 21 by In Absence of True Seasons

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 rwtwm I don't think we'd struggle that much! Such runs have been the norm since...*checks calendar*...July 2023

[damianslaw]

We do seem to have exchanged lengthier drier periods and shorter lived unsettled ones from Dec 20 to longer unsettled spells and shorter drier ones since late June last year... looking back at recent decades we've seen a lot of this switching sometimes in shorter time periods sometimes up to about 4 years.. there is always variability though, but I'm struggling to remember the last year which brought month after month of average rainfall, seems to be far more wetter and drier months than average ones nowadays.

Back to the models, as many are looking towards Easter, they are not painting a preety picture, take your pick either a deep trough sat over the UK or a bit further west, both scenarios mean wet and a variation on cool, near average temps. Lots of time yet for things to change but the direction doesn't suggest a lengthy dry spell anytime soon sadly as I think this is what many want, temps not as important. 

Edited March 21 by damianslaw

[Bats32]

I know the EC46 likes to suddenly flip at short notice, so I'd take this with a heavy pinch of salt but it has lower pressure out to the west and south west for the whole of April.  

[KTtom]

 damianslaw The worrying thing for those who, like me were hoping to get outdoors more over the easter weekend is just how consistant the models have been in the dropping of the lobe of PV down next week. Must be a very strong signal so even though we're still over the 168hr mark until easter we are only 5 days away from the deep Atlantic trough so I really cant see any chance of a major change now.

 Bats32 Hopefully its performance is the same as throughout winter!

[Gowon]

The ECM sticks with the theme of sending most of the energy SE into Europe

 

[stodge]

Evening all

Not a huge amount of change over the past 24 hours - the weekend's chillier interlude replaced from Monday by more encroaching LP from the west and north west and this deepens into a significant LP which, according to UKM and GEM,  ends up as a significant storm over southern and south western Britain - a central pressure of 960 MB isn't that common this far south at the end of March.

From there, we start to see some divergence - some models have the LP filling in situ, others have a more definite shift south ushering in an E'ly but with most of northern Europe now above freezing by day we aren't talking anything too severe but perhaps disappointing and currently those looking for a warm and dry Easter weekend are going to need a miracle.

ECM 12Z OP perhaps the mosr divergent keeping the LP but clear signs of a strengthening of northern blocking at T+240. 

Northern blocking at the end of March/beginning of April isn't unusual by any stretch but can be hard to shift once in place. 

The rainfall accumulations off the 12Z GFS OP aren't that encouraging for the south west with still nearly three inches likely over Devon and parts of Cornwall before Easter and temperatures also disappointing with daytime maxima around the mid teens at best in the south east and plenty of frost especially for Scotland and of course hill snow can't be ruled out.

[damianslaw]

GFS12z shows one of the slowest moving troughs I've seen, doesn't clear fully until 6 April, secondary low joins the painfully slow filling low on situ. This is the time of year when we do unfortunately see very slow moving/ filling troughs and lows when northern heights appear on the scene.. not too surprised to see the current model output for rest of March, but rather displeased namely with Easter on the horizon, which traditionally marks the start of the holiday tourist season, and is the first holiday after a long period of winter hibernation. Easter is notorious for being plagued by very different weather. 

ECM maintains the trough further SW with a easterly flow, perhaps not as wet, but dull and cool all the same. 

Those holiday brochures seem more appealing than ever, for a nation deprived of vitamin D for near on 6 months!

Edited March 21 by damianslaw

[Alderc 2.0]

Have to say the GFS 12Z is the absolute pits from early next week onwards (ECM is really no better). Unrelenting low pressure and shortwaves being thrown up across the UK. Could be a flooding issue by the time we get to the Easter break, the only saving grace maybe the apparent speed of fronts passing through. Hard to see a way out of this pickle. 

[Uncertainty]

Is there light at the end of the tunnel / gutter? 
 

Some signs in the extended range of a post-Easter switch in weather type with more influence from high pressure.

Ec clusters

3 reds at the final step.

GEFS extended is nondescript , but no obvious low…

GEPS has more of a high to the NW

Would still most likely be drier than what we’ve had (not hard). Grey in the east maybe. But still the drier theme.

The mjo also now progged to move quite strongly into phase 8/1

The strong phase 6  -where we’ve been -surely has a part to play in the coming Atlantic /  U.K. trough

Then there’s the downwelling waves from ssw #426. Though to be honest, getting excited about the strat ain’t what it used to be after this winter.

Still, it’s still very reversed, so you would think the easterlies will take over eventually. 

I maintain my belief that the pattern will flip at some point. Hopefully for good and we can revert to a more Nina driven drier trend.
 

This has been a coruscating 9 months - relentless in its miserableness. When the next U.K. high does eventually settle in. Take a moment to appreciate it. 
Thanks 

Josh

[Mcconnor8]

GFS 18z looks quite nasty with a pretty deep low at 5 days out, sub 955mb, will be interesting to see if the GFS or ECM is on the right track here as they have very different solutions at a relatively short time frame.

[Bats32]

Lol......  

[andymusic]

GFS 18z gone off on one again in la la land

the pv and the artic swamps Britain

[Cheese Rice]

I don't think anyone would have a problem with a cold crisp northerly. Would be an improvement over the current dross. 

[damianslaw]

 andymusic  A synoptic far more likely verify in April or May than any other months, and certainly not to be discounted.. though as always subject to change.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 Cheese Rice -12 850s and low thickness with a strongish sun…I’d take that all day long for the wild weather at the surface it’d likely bring!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to emphasise how cold that modelled airmass is, even the April sun cannot heat the 2m temperature above freezing for the Midlands north

[Cloud 10]

Proper old fashioned pub run.

 

[Frigid]

Now that's extreme! Many places stay below freezing all day, that air would be colder than anything we saw this winter.. mind you it's the GFS so it definitely won't verify. Classic pub run 

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, Rain All Night said:

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)

ECM still different, though not as drastically so.

0z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)

We're now looking for a signal for what will happen after Easter, and we're not getting one yet.

12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 28th (day 7)

The ECM solution remains just that little bit less miserable for us.

12z ensemble means, out to Fri 5th (day 15)

The height rises late in these runs are starting to border on interesting.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift.

 

On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March.

There goes the cold front sweeping through

Gales across the North and Northwest though a gradual increase across the UK and Ireland.

All of the UK and Ireland experiencing sub zero windchill values.

On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic 

Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.