Storms / convective general discussion

[Supercell]

Is it me, or are things showing signs of decaying and dispersing into just heavy rain rather than storms?

Looks that way. Torrential rain soon gave way to drizzly conditions. Disappointing overcast skies.

[justinflavin]

a bat just flew right over me in the garden - normally those chaps come out at sunset.

good omen for an evening storm on the way? maybe he's getting his evening meal in now before all hell breaks loose. i must admit this horizon-to-horizon haze looks ominous.

[Paul Sherman]

Some tell tale signs of what is going to happen over the next few hours if you look at the radar (And that includes you blizzards) The ongoing storms in Lincs are moving east ever so slowly, having trouble leaving the land due to sea breeze convergence, these are still strong due to the surface moisture coming up from the humid south, areas to the north of this are in Northerly winds and T-Storms chances are now low, 2nd area of rain near the Midlands could see some thundery rain and the odd storm pop off ahead of this band, the 3rd area over the Channel (Crapvection) has a few cells firing ahead of the band but the old MCS Is decaying, the heaviest rain on its South-Eastern edge will swing away the other side of the channel, the cells firing ahead of this band could scrape East Sussex & Kent in the next 3-4 hours, the area of crap to the west of the old MCS will drift northwards this evening with sporadic heavy bursts. Hope this helps

Paul Sherman

[Costa Del Fal]

Thanks Paul looks Promising!

[Bobby]

Well, once again it looks like The Great Valleys Thunderstorm Barrier has done its job. We had one 5 minute heavy shower, now it's just drizzly, misty and overcast.

Edited June 13, 2007 by Magpie

[grab my graupel]

Jut fairly moderate rain falling now, and has been for the last 45mins or so

[Paul Sherman]

I would have thought more chance of Funnel Clouds than Tornadoes due to lack of Surface winds, also winds with height (Stretching of Updraughts to create Tornadoes) is non existant in the area, so convergence type Funnel clouds are certainly possible.

Paul S

[Stuart]

ECM this morning is trying to bring high pressure in to the uk at the end of the run

oops can a mod move this

Edited June 13, 2007 by Stuart H

[The PIT]

And too show how good Bolteks can be with nextstorm software. My gone and flipped 180 degrees west to east. Dunno why. The only other time it did that when the ariel fell off. It's still up stuck to the wall.

Edited June 13, 2007 by The PIT

[*AL*]

Heavy shower in Swindon with thunder heard.Very moody looking sky, around 15.45

[Will storm]

Had 3 storms this afternoon. No lightning but plenty of thunder. I saw a funnel cloud to my north earlier which lasted nearly 6mins. You have to look hard to see it.

[Costa Del Fal]

Had 3 storms this afternoon. No lightning but plenty of thunder. I saw a funnel cloud to my north earlier which lasted nearly 6mins. You have to look hard to see it.

Nice Pics! I can see the Funnel, it Goes Diagonally.

[Mammatus]

Had 3 storms this afternoon. No lightning but plenty of thunder. I saw a funnel cloud to my north earlier which lasted nearly 6mins. You have to look hard to see it.

Great pics Will. You can see it fairly clearly on your first image. Thanks for posting the pics.

Very hazy skies around here now, no bubbly clouds anymore, just hazy and very humid.

Mammatus

Edited June 13, 2007 by Mammatus

[lightningfan]

What do you guys make of those massive white lumps sat in the north of Biscay? They look pretty impressive to me. Any chance of them coming through the channel?

[grab my graupel]

Had 3 storms this afternoon. No lightning but plenty of thunder. I saw a funnel cloud to my north earlier which lasted nearly 6mins. You have to look hard to see it.

Wow just seen this! Thanks Will, fabulous pictures there mate

[tcc]

What do you guys make of those massive white lumps sat in the north of Biscay? They look pretty impressive to me. Any chance of them coming through the channel?

Read Paul S post regarding possibilities for tonight on the previous page, probably just some rain, not much in the way of storms for the south.

[kentish_sally]

There is also a Substantial Cap over the South East which is being eroded now, but other than a few elevated storms this evening, I do not think the Torro forecast can verify, i'd have thought the only likely place for a Tornado today would be in or near Lincs

Hello and good afternoon Paul,

The TORRO post was purely for information to be honest for the people who may have not seen it. A Convective Discussion is only as good as that - a discussion.

It would seem Torro themselves are not to happy with the setup for more substaintualy severe and / or tornadic weather which as you quite rightly say, The Estofex forecast would hold more bearing.

As for the cap, is that just due to high CAPE values and not much else ? LI didnt help for the lifting today, So what could cause the erosion? Cooling air temps as we go into the evening and overnight?

[Lynxus]

Not been bad today.. VERY humid, grey skies now. just drizzle

However i did spot a funnle cloud today. ! Not sure if it touched but still.. Hrhr

[Paul Sherman]

Am watching those Lf, but the only slim chance is if an elevated Storm can cross the Channel early hours, most of the intense stuff will slip up into the Low Countries, about 15% chance of a Stray elevated storm, still capped in the South East at present.

Paul S

[Costa Del Fal]

Going Quite Black to my South West.

Had 2 Torrential Downpours Here this afternoon. Not much Intresting and hasnt cleared the Heat/Warmth/Muggy Feel.

Because its still so warm here (at about 20/21 here) could the rain turn quite Thundery as this Cooler air Hits Warmer air?

[Mark Bayley]

Had a heavy shower not so long ago with a few rumbles of thunder. Looks like some heavy showers heading my way

Edited June 13, 2007 by mark bayley

[grab my graupel]

Current lightning radar looking very interesting at the moment

[VillagePlank]

Am watching those Lf, but the only slim chance is if an elevated Storm can cross the Channel early hours, most of the intense stuff will slip up into the Low Countries, about 15% chance of a Stray elevated storm, still capped in the South East at present.

Paul S

Mmm not so sure. The 6z forecast (for 18z) Skew-t has CIN at 0, LI negative, CAPE is about, and TT, and K are in the region where we could grow the damn things ourselves!! Maybe I should wait for the 12z ...

Edited June 13, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Paul Sherman]

Hello and good afternoon Paul,

The TORRO post was purely for information to be honest for the people who may have not seen it. A Convective Discussion is only as good as that - a discussion.

It would seem Torro themselves are not to happy with the setup for more substaintualy severe and / or tornadic weather which as you quite rightly say, The Estofex forecast would hold more bearing.

As for the cap, is that just due to high CAPE values and not much else ? LI didnt help for the lifting today, So what could cause the erosion? Cooling air temps as we go into the evening and overnight?

Hi Sally,

Just about to leave work for home, but the amount of Cloud cover today has almost squashed our hopes in the South East, there was good Cape values and the trigger is still just to our west and south west by way of a Trough and Boundary this should act as the "Trigger" mechanism but a moist profile on the Skewt's through the heights show the only chance of a Storm is an elevated Import overnight (Which is still possible) The moist plume is still working Northwards but as it hits the Cold front in the North it is getting squashed, if you run the radar sequences you can see any areas of rain that have ventured near the South East have been obliterated, i'd expect as the trough moves in this evening there is more chance of a Storm or two but more towards the Kent & Sussex Coastlines

Paul S

Mmm not so sure. The 6z forecast (for 18z) Skew-t has CIN at 0, LI negative, CAPE is about, and TT, and K are in the region where we could grow the damn things ourselves!! Maybe I should wait for the 12z ...

But we still needed the Trigger Village??? Convective temps were held down by cloud cover from the crapvection spreading in from the west, temps were about 3c down on what was forecasted by the GFS??

Paul S

[Mammatus]

We could see some storm development within the area Ive highlighted over the coming hour or so.

Mammatus