Storms / convective general discussion

[VillagePlank]

But we still needed the Trigger Village??? Convective temps were held down by cloud cover from the crapvection spreading in from the west, temps were about 3c down on what was forecasted by the GFS??

Yes, that's true. I'm looking ...

EDIT: can't see any obvious trigger, actually, apart from the instability due in from France (post 18z) Feel a bit stupid, actually, the trigger is certainly one of the default discriminants of t/storm activity. At a strech and, if you are prepared to suspend all disbelief, diurnal temperature differences between cloud top, and mid cloud, around nightfall may initiate convection. But that's really pushing the boat out. Bugger. Still, every community needs their idiot and it looks like its me, this time Would the mods kindly change my name to VillageIdiot for the time being

Edited June 13, 2007 by VillagePlank

[Mammatus]

Heavy showers breaking out west of London now, something to watch.

Mammatus

[Kain]

Well no thunder, but a cell just dumped alot of rain on us!

Was so heavy I decided to go stand in it! I got soaked right through to my boxers! It felt good, especially as its so muggy!

Kain

[Thundersquall]

It seems the focus of activity is over Lincolnshire at the moment.

National Met Office radar:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

East Midlands zoom-in:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/em/...test_radar.html

Some storm-activity in and around Lincolnshire:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

Edited June 13, 2007 by Thundersquall

[Noctilucid]

N/S oriented line of congestus hasbeen pushing hard into the sky for an hour or so now out to my west, since I last looked itesgained height and nowhas a very dark base, almost jet black.

Visibility has been very goodtoday despite the humid condidtions, and these towers are clearly seen and have crisp cauliflower shapes, and i think one is forming an anvil now.

Joe

[DB]

Greenford NW London

Looking very dark, and turbulent to the west (Uxbridge/ Ruislip area) no rain yet at Greenford.

[Costa Del Fal]

power just went off here in mid wales. sky is very promising

How did you post if the Power had gone? Lol!

[Snowyowl9]

Too much mid-level cloud cover today for thunder here did see the cumulus trying to reach up in the more clearer gaps which were few and far between but there was an impressive Tcu to the east early afternoon...had a heavy shower with much lighter showery rain,and it is much more humid to yesterday.

I`m looking to friday for the best change for thundery heavy showers this week.

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn481.png

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn484.png

[dapick2002]

well theres been lightning detected just west of me and there's a couple of beefy showers coming this way going by the radar, the skys gone dark...just hope i see a little action

[Lightning Hunter]

Well the 'heavy, thundery rain' forecast by BBC, Metcheck etc, has now cleared. It doubled this month's total rain to a stonking 0.8mm.

0.4mm in an hour and a half from that rainband.

[Costa Del Fal]

Well the 'heavy, thundery rain' forecast by BBC, Metcheck etc, has now cleared. It doubled this month's total rain to a stonking 0.8mm.

0.4mm in an hour and a half from that rainband.

Is there Flooding?

[hammerb32]

Roads in the West of Birmingham have been flooded this afternoon, nothing to major as far as I understand. I'm in Brum about 7 miles to the NE of the city centre, nothing of any real note hear just a few passing showers that were nothing to shout home about, funny how it can be so localised.

[Nick F]

Well the cirrus shield from the old MCS over NW France earlier today is spreading a grey blanket over here and has pretty much spoilt the chances for convection this evening over Southern and SE England, may get a few splashes of rain over the next few hours.

However, the clear skies North of London and over East Anglia this afternoon have allowed heat to build up and feed heavy thundery showers over parts of the Midlands and Lincolnshire. The 12z Nottingham sounding revealed an unstable atmosphere over the Midlands this afternoon given some trigger.

Chance further South of some reactivation of thunderstorms over the channel tonight in the warm moist plume advecting NE out of France as colder air associated with an upper trough arriving from the SW steepens mid-level lapse rates, but I wouldn't hold out too much hope for this, as said earlier, most of the instability and storms will probably stay over N. France and move NE up into Belgium tonight.

[Costa Del Fal]

Is there a Storm and Rain Barrier round Here?

When storms were Forecast Here today we get nothing.

And Moderate to Heavy Rain Forecast Here for the Last Couple of Hours has been Nothing Or Drizzle.

This Weather is Pants.

[Noctilucid]

The congestus is producing a small but heavy shower over the Ching ford mount area, at the south end of the enfield reservoirs, itsveryvery very dark in that direction, and i can still see the congestus tops pushing upwards, above that is very thick cirrius cloud.

Joe

[The PIT]

Is there Flooding?

If it was Sheffield there could well be. Yes I am serious.

[Shaun L]

Is there a Storm and Rain Barrier round Here?

When storms were Forecast Here today we get nothing.

And Moderate to Heavy Rain Forecast Here for the Last Couple of Hours has been Nothing Or Drizzle.

This Weather is Pants.

You had three storms in a day just the other week . :unsure:

[derby4life]

We could see some storm development within the area Ive highlighted over the coming hour or so.

Mammatus

good call Mammatus....how did you come to that conclusion mate.....charts ??

[simon1]

Is there a Storm and Rain Barrier round Here?

When storms were Forecast Here today we get nothing.

And Moderate to Heavy Rain Forecast Here for the Last Couple of Hours has been Nothing Or Drizzle.

This Weather is Pants.

I don't think it is possible for ANY forecaster to say it will definitely rain in Kidderminster or not! And it is certainly impossible for anyone to say there will or won't be storms, only what the likelihood is. The "Will it thunder?" feature on the homepage, if you have checked it, only showed a 35% chance of storms for Kidderminster for today. Therefore, there was a 65% that there wouldn't be any. Not really a high forecast for storms. :unsure:

Currently it shows as a 51% chance for Friday so the odds are, as it stands, slightly more in your favour.As far as here goes, it has been moderate to heavy showers on and off since early this afternoon so the forecast wasn't wrong.

Edited June 13, 2007 by simon1

[Noctilucid]

about 5 minutes ago my dada reported torrential rain in Epping high street.

Very dark in that direction.

Joe

[Mammatus]

good call Mammatus....how did you come to that conclusion mate.....charts ??

Thanks derby4life, just years at looking at radar images/storm development and instinct to be honest. The area I highlighted just looked perfect for development especially after the sunshine during today, the building of heat and being so near to the main thundery rain mass. Im pleased my prediction was right this time though, doesn't always come to fruition.

Certainly looks like the east midlands/Cambridgeshire and perhaps West Suffolk/Norfolk in for a storm in the next few hours.

It feels incredibly barmy here at the moment, almost unbearable. I also have a terrible headache.

Mammatus

Edited June 13, 2007 by Mammatus

[SnowJoke]

it's really muggy and feels nasty here without hardly a breath of wind. Looks like a very heavy cell to my south but no hoping for much in the way of storms, cloud cover all evening has spoilt that prospect ;(

[Costa Del Fal]

You had three storms in a day just the other week . :unsure:

Yes but everything forecast round here lately has missed us when forecast here.

[Mark Bayley]

All the showers and thunderstorms have be fairly hit or miss. I had heavy showers forecast for me i only got one shower. About two or three miles away from me they had some heavy showers

[Noctilucid]

Thanks derby4life, just years at looking at radar images/storm development and instinct to be honest. The area I highlighted just looked perfect for development especially after the sunshine during today, the building of heat and being so near to the main thundery rain mass. Im pleased my prediction was right this time though, doesn't always come to fruition.

Certainly looks like the east midlands/Cambridgeshire and perhaps West Suffolk/Norfolk in for a storm in the next few hours.

It feels incredibly barmy here at the moment, almost unbearable. I also have a terrible headache.

Mammatus

My mate who lives in Hatfield Pevrel has just reported thunder from the same cell that affected epping earlier, its travelling up the A12so your in with a chance now.

Joe