February CET

[Nick L]

Could somebody tell me the 61-90 and 71-00 averages please?

[Snowly does it]

Could somebody tell me the 61-90 and 71-00 averages please?

3.8 and 4.2 respectively

[Nick L]

3.8 and 4.2 respectively

Thanks snowmaiden, in that case I shall go for a cool 3.4c

[Snowyowl9]

The coldest february this decade was 2006 at 3.7c best in my opinion...since 1996 at 2.5c...which was the best since 1991 at 1.5c.... which was also the best since 1986 at -1.1c the ultimate cold snowy feb I`ve seen.

But I`m waiting until the models get there act together before I take a punt,got a few days yet.

[morfius]

2.7C please

1st-7th Feb

I'm predicting a mild to cool phase with widespread average conditions at the beginning of the week gradually giving way to cooler conditions with highs of 3C in Scotland and 5C in England and Wales by the 7th. I expect the week will begin with unsettled conditions bringing snow to higher ground, this will gradually give way to drier conditions with high pressure building over Scandinavia allowing for night time frosts.

8th-14th

This week will begin with a brief continental flow with winds generally from a SE to ESE direction. This will allow for significantly below average temperatures with overcast skies bringing occasional very light snow showers. On the 10th or 11th the Atlantic may briefly begin pushing in from the South West giving a return to average temperatures for south west england and southern wales. The weather front will weaken considerably and not progress particularly far inland. On the 13th, high pressure will begin to reassert itself with the potential for a NE to E flow beginning to rise. By the 14th, a number of rural spots in south east england may begin to see ice days.

15th-21st

This week will see a rapid cool down of the British isles and diversion of Atlantic weather systems to Spain and southern europe as blocking takes hold. Maximum temperatures of perhaps 2 or 3C by day, with minimums of perhaps -5C in urban areas and perhaps as low as -15C in rural locations where cloud cover dissipates. For the most part this week will see a return to conditions similar to those seen at the beginning of January.

22nd-28th

This week is where I see the uncertainty - I think that a continuation of the continental flow is possible with perhaps the shift to a more ENE to NNE flow allowing for low pressure systems to dive in from the Arctic bringing widespread heavy snowfall across most areas. The west and south west may hold on to slightly milder conditions depending on the severity of blocking. Where skies clear, very low night minima may be seen although not likely to be record breaking.

I'm probably hopecasting and I know there is probably very little data to back this up, however, this is what I am seeing based on what we have seen so far this winter and what we are likely to see again.

[damianslaw]

Ok, I'll probably shoot myself in the foot for doing this; usually leave it till 3 or 4 days before end of the month, anyhow my call is for 2.4 degrees... appreciably below average and the coldest feb since 1991 and probably the snowiest since 1996, expect northerly and easterly airstreams to dominate but with anticylonic highs overhead as well at times cutting off arctic maritime and continental supply from time to time - good chance though of it being a sub 2 month but don't have the confidence to give such a call.

[Duncan McAlister]

I'll repeat my January prediction of 4.5C. We've got to have one mild winter month right? (Who would have thought we'd be saying that 12 months ago?)

[Lettucing Gutted]

8C February 2009 CET

[Norrance]

3.0C for me. The cool theme to continue.

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

8C February 2009 CET

8? lol! That sounds like it would be record-busting by a long way but I don't have the figures to back up that instinct.

I'll go for +2.9C - the first sub 3 month of recent times by a whisker.

[Nick L]

8? lol! That sounds like it would be record-busting by a long way but I don't have the figures to back up that instinct.

I'll go for +2.9C - the first sub 3 month of recent times by a whisker.

It would indeed be the warmest on record, only just mind you, with the warmest currently being held by 1779, with 7.9c

[snowingman]

major warm up on the way, a cold start but then very mild - hitting 7.1C on average... roll on spring

[Anti-Mild]

3.0C for me. The cool theme to continue.

I was going to say that!

In that case, I'll go for 2.9c.

Off topic Norrance, I like your avatar pic! Come on you Saints!! Going up this year or I'll eat my shorts!

[mountain shadow]

major warm up on the way, a cold start but then very mild - hitting 7.1C on average... roll on spring

Playing the old double bluff then? I bet you've changed that by Friday.

Given the volatility of the model output at the minute, you would have to be mad to post before 23.59 on 31st January.

[Eugene]

major warm up on the way, a cold start but then very mild - hitting 7.1C on average... roll on spring

Yes roll on spring and the variety it brings, not that it guarantees persistent warm dry weather just interesting weather chances with wintry weather chances until Mid May, i really like Aprils showery setups with warm sunny periods then temps plummeting under hail showers.

So you're expecting a February around 3C above average sorry but with Februaries current signals that is more unlikely than one 3C below average one near average to slightly below has a much higher chance of coming off.

Edited January 25, 2009 by Eugene

[Roger J Smith]

I'm going with 4.9 because four and nine are the only numbers I can remember, and 9.4 sounds daft.

[Gavin P]

My winter LRF pointed to February being the mildest month of this winter, but given the signs we're currently seeing in the models, plus the stratospheric warming thats taking place and a weakening La Nina, I'm changing my forecast. My guess now is that February will be a cold month with periods of frequent northerly and easterly winds. Blocking should occur both to the north-west and north-east. Snow will be more common and frequent than either January and December. The first half is probably likely to be colder than the second half, and if there was to be a spell of early spring-like weather, I would guess its likely in the final week.

My CET guess is

2.4

[kold weather]

I'm going to go for 3.8C, another month below average which would make it a fairly uncommon winter with all 3 winter months being below average.

[Snowyowl9]

Last winter I think was 1990/1991 with all months below average.

Right I`m going for a colder one to feb 2006 so 2.6c please.

[sunny scunny]

Im going for 2.8c

[BUSHY]

2.8 for me.

[memories of 63]

I'll try a coolish 2.5 Deg C - better chance than my dreadful 2.2 Deg C for Jan

[grab my graupel]

3.5 for me please

[shuggee]

2.9ºC for me. Let's see that 3ºC barrier broken...

[Optimus Prime]

It's going to go something like this;

1st-7th Mostly cold, possibly very cold and wintry. Severe penetrating frosts by night at times, and strong cold bitter winds during the day;

First week CET -1.2c

8th-14th Remining cold at first, then anticylonic and cold, turning milder later on

Second week CET +2.0c

15th-21st Mild and unsettled for this period, plenty of rain and gales, especially for the North and West. Windy elsewhere.

Third week CET +7.5c

22nd-28th Very mild at first, colder northerly interlude then milder again. Mosty unsettled end to the month.

Fourth week CET +5.4c

Overall;

3.4c