Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[A.J]

Yeti was right about the latest UKMO run placing the low further North. The -1 850 upper air temp line is now as far North as South Midlands. That is quite a big difference from the old UKMO run. I expect a different BBC forecast at 10:30pm now, has to come after that downgrade.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U36-7.GIF?08-18

Downgrade of gigantic proportions. Maybe it wasn't sour grapes after all from me? I am only telling it how I see it and it seems that the UKMO now agrees with the GFS, well i'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.

I see what you mean, that must be inferring the milder air wrapped up in this system...Still, showing 850's of -3C for my location, so the potential is still there

[cyclonic happiness]

i think it's only gonna last 2 hours max this snow, it's moving eastwards very quickly.

[NorthantsSnow]

Yeti was right about the latest UKMO run placing the low further North. The -1 850 upper air temp line is now as far North as South Midlands. That is quite a big difference from the old UKMO run. I expect a different BBC forecast at 10:30pm now, has to come after that downgrade.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U36-7.GIF?08-18

Downgrade of gigantic proportions. Maybe it wasn't sour grapes after all from me? I am only telling it how I see it and it seems that the UKMO now agrees with the GFS, well i'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.

I am still fairly confident of snowfall for some areas as the storm clears, I imagine this will become the focus on future forecasts along with the heavy rain/strong winds event affecting much of the country late Monday into Tuesday.

[Albion Snowman]

Very heavy anow for the past 10 mins or so and about an inch of fresh snow. Temp of 0.5C.The snow is strangely alternating between massive flakes and smaller flakes and sometimes massive and small flakes at the same time.

[Potent Gust]

Yeti was right about the latest UKMO run placing the low further North. The -1 850 upper air temp line is now as far North as South Midlands. That is quite a big difference from the old UKMO run. I expect a different BBC forecast at 10:30pm now, has to come after that downgrade.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U36-7.GIF?08-18

Downgrade of gigantic proportions. Maybe it wasn't sour grapes after all from me? I am only telling it how I see it and it seems that the UKMO now agrees with the GFS, well i'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.

I thnk your right Andy. However you never know things can change. I am beginning to learn that with snow it all comes down to nowcasting.

[andy_leics22]

Might make some money this week after all then !

The jobs still yours when you want it !! B)

:lol:

I knew if the UKMO changed the position of the low on this 12z run it would be a big downgrade and it is. The only snow I can see is when the low clears away during Tuesday and the precip lingers a bit before clearing. But by that time the ground will be soaked, puddles and all sorts.

[beccaboo]

Pants! Wet boring sleety rain here at the moment, I really really really want lots of snow!!!!!!

[conor123]

Snow started to settle in a heavy fall about 30 minutes ago but it fizzled out somewhat again.

If the UKMO 12z comes off then one hell of a dumping is likely here in Telford tommorow night as 0c is shown over us with heavy precipitation, plus being 160-165 meters asl helps.

Edited February 8, 2009 by conor123

[i luv snow]

Very true Potent! Snow always surprises, so lets wait for radar watching to see where this low comes in. Things can change in an instant, interesting times ahead

[weather_it_will]

Heavy big flakes here in Banbury.

Have to get back to Rugby later.

[Potent Gust]

Teaming down with snow now and starting to stick!

[NorthantsSnow]

That should come right over me !!!

The temp is dropping like a stone now, quite impressive really. 0.4 °C now and radar looking good!

[ISAAC]

I knew if the UKMO changed the position of the low on this 12z run it would be a big downgrade and it is. The only snow I can see is when the low clears away during Tuesday and the precip lingers a bit before clearing. But by that time the ground will be soaked, puddles and all sorts.

i really really hope your wrong! ive been waiting for a proper winter storm for all my life!!!

[stipey1]

snow falling quite heavily here. Has been for last 25mins or so. Starting to settle as well. hopefully a nice covering before tomorrow's onslaught!!!!!

[andy_leics22]

snow falling quite heavily here. Has been for last 25mins or so. Starting to settle as well. hopefully a nice covering before tomorrow's onslaught!!!!!

Onslaught of rain

[MKN]

I knew if the UKMO changed the position of the low on this 12z run it would be a big downgrade and it is. The only snow I can see is when the low clears away during Tuesday and the precip lingers a bit before clearing. But by that time the ground will be soaked, puddles and all sorts.

there will still be somewhere that gets belted by this, my opinion now is probably north derbyshire, i look forward to seeing bbcs forecast later. They may have already updated it for the news about to come on, as surely they see the ukmo before us.

[A.J]

The Gfs does infer the potential for heavy snow as the low retreats, dew points are very marginal though......850's drop quickly as the low zips through the channel

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Well that was bloody fun!!!

Is that the very last snow event now? Anymore due in the night??

[stipey1]

Onslaught of rain

we will see. hard to predict as well you may know but I think we will get something

[Drew]

Been snowing on and off around here since 2pm. Settling well. Not seen so much snow around here probably up to 50cm in places, although this has thawed a bit. NOt been as cold as I exepcted though. The min we have had over the last couple of days has been -4.5C

[Costa Del Fal]

Just had a very heavy burst of Snow and everything is now white, even our road which is a main road!!!

[weather_it_will]

Well that was bloody fun!!!

Is that the very last snow event now? Anymore due in the night??

Drifting Snow & Heavy Snow 1800 Mon 9 2359 Mon 9

Rain turning to snow in many places will give accumulations of 5 to 10cm generally and 15 to 20cm over hills. Some drifting is possible in the strong easterly winds.

Issued at: 1150 Sun 8 Feb

West Midlands:60% Herefordshire

60% Shropshire

60% Staffordshire

60% Stoke-on-Trent

60% Telford + Wrekin

60% W Midlands

60% Warwickshire

60% Worcestershire

Drifting Snow & Heavy Snow 0001 Tue 10 1200 Tue 10

Further snow is expected in many places with falls of 5 to 10cm generally and 15 to 20cm over hills. Some drifting is possible in the strong northeasterly winds.

Issued at: 1209 Sun 8 Feb

I make that up to 20cm or more by tuesday lunchtime

[phil nw.]

Snowing heavily for a good 30mins.now.Covering all surfaces now.Temp 0c dp 0c.

[conor123]

Rather heavy snow falling here now with hail in it!

Sounds like someones throwing things at the house.

[Yeti]

Yeti was right about the latest UKMO run placing the low further North. The -1 850 upper air temp line is now as far North as South Midlands. That is quite a big difference from the old UKMO run. I expect a different BBC forecast at 10:30pm now, has to come after that downgrade.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U36-7.GIF?08-18

Downgrade of gigantic proportions. Maybe it wasn't sour grapes after all from me? I am only telling it how I see it and it seems that the UKMO now agrees with the GFS, well i'm glad I didn't get my hopes up.

To be fair Andy whilst what you say is true, there is still a chance... the GFS op might well give snow to your location, and things can change right at the last minute (in fact they usually do).

Although I have been through the models, and the GEFS mean, the UKMO, ECM, JMA and perhaps GME say N. GFS op is best for you.