Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

[Southender]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-24.png?18

18z Precip for tonight (Sun). Snow for all!!??...

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-54.png?18

The low further south

Edited February 8, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[A Wintry Mix]

I have been hoping for a winter like this for over 20 years and all we get on the NE coast of Kent is rain!

roll on the T storms.

[john mac]

time will tell, this will definately be a nowcasting event, would be interested to know what the local forecasts are saying up north

[angel]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-24.png?18

18z Precip for tonight (Sun). Snow for all!!??...

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-54.png?18

The low further south

I don't really know how to read all the charts (still really new at this) but I'm guessing those are in our favour?

I am trying to learn.... honest!

[Tom Montalbano]

GFS 18z parallel run is very similar to the op. run re. the track of the low on Mon/Tues. N.French coast - Belgium.

Here are the 500s and ppn type for that period.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/57/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/5...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/63/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/69/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

Even with that track I cant see much snow south of the Midlands until the low clears away east and drags colder air

back south with some back edge snow for a short time, moving SE.

As Friday, -5 850s dont get south of the Midlands until the low clears east of the Greenwich Meridian.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/66/h850t850eu.png

Regards,

Tom.

[Alpine glow]

GFS 18z parallel run is very similar to the op. run re. the track of the low on Mon/Tues. N.French coast - Belgium.

Here are the 500s and ppn type for that period.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/57/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/5...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/63/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/69/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

Even with that track I cant see much snow south of the Midlands until the low clears away east and drags colder air

back south with some back edge snow for a short time, moving SE.

As Friday, -5 850s dont get south of the Midlands until the low clears east of the Greenwich Meridian.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/66/h850t850eu.png

Regards,

Tom.

Thanks Tom I guess we have to wait and hope that we get the back edge of the snow then. I say 'we' but being right down here on the coast, I won't hold my breath..!! I was spoilt last Monday and it makes me want more...! :winky:

[Southender]

GFS 18z parallel run is very similar to the op. run re. the track of the low on Mon/Tues. N.French coast - Belgium.

Here are the 500s and ppn type for that period.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/57/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/5...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/63/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/69/h500slp.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png

Even with that track I cant see much snow south of the Midlands until the low clears away east and drags colder air

back south with some back edge snow for a short time, moving SE.

As Friday, -5 850s dont get south of the Midlands until the low clears east of the Greenwich Meridian.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/66/h850t850eu.png

Regards,

Tom.

Thats the million dollar question isn't it Tom!

Who knows it could dive further South than that, then it would be game on! But it could also go North again, aaarrrggghh!

[Tom Montalbano]

Just to show 2 examples , albeit extreme, of lows approaching from the SW, around the N.W.French coast, that gave copious snowfall to our area. Note the 850 temps on both examples away to the east and north of us (S.North Sea & Low Countries), and as these lows approached they sucked in this frigid air courtesy of the easterly winds on their northern flanks, undercutting the mild air and turning the ppn to snow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119621230.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00219621230.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119781231.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00219781231.gif

Now Mon/Tues. low.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn542.png

We dont have that frigid PC air to tap into and change the ppn to snow. I grant you , 2 extreme examples but as you can see the differences are stark. I still think we might get some back edge snow once the low clears east of us, though.

Regards,

Tom.

[tinybill]

all i hope it the grit dont run looks like they will neeed it

[jimbo36]

Afraid it looks like the UKMO has this channel low tracking further north, so all we'll get in the SE tonight and Monday night is rain, maybe sleet on the hills :-(

Jimbo

[tinybill]

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy SnowMon 9 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southern England and Wales on Monday. A band of rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it moves eastwards. There is the potential for around 5 to 10, perhaps locally 15cm of snow.

Issued at: 1132 Sat 7 Feb

UK regions: East of England Wales South West England West Midlands London & South East England East MidlandsHeavy SnowTue 10 FebThere is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of southern England and Wales on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it moves eastwards. There is the potential for around 5 to 10, perhaps locally 15cm of snow.

Issued at: 1139 Sat 7 Feb

its watch and wait time !!!!!!!!

[maidstone weather]

Well after watching the BBC graphics this morning, which go up to midnight tomorrow night, it looks like yet again it will be a Midlands and SW Event!!! Why does it keep doing this? The snowline is yet again N + W of London

[JamesL]

Our time will come. Once we get this storm out of the way, next week looks very promising for us in the SE (infact better than anywhere else). With high pressure building north and west and height rises in the mid Atlantic, the N winds will prevail and then turn more NE by the end of the week.

The GFS Ens back this evolution up after a massive turnaround over the last 3-4 days. It certainly looks cold to mid month at least then its all up for grabs.

I am as fustrated as you with this current spell, however its all about to change and the balanced will be redressed.

James

[nick sussex]

Our time will come. Once we get this storm out of the way, next week looks very promising for us in the SE (infact better than anywhere else). With high pressure building north and west and height rises in the mid Atlantic, the N winds will prevail and then turn more NE by the end of the week.

The GFS Ens back this evolution up after a massive turnaround over the last 3-4 days. It certainly looks cold to mid month at least then its all up for grabs.

I am as fustrated as you with this current spell, however its all about to change and the balanced will be redressed.

James

You were very unlucky the other day with that model switch which sent the precip too far north so lets hope after this low comes through that things improve for parts of the se which have missed out on much of the snow.

[TEITS]

Some photos sent to me from my mother in Wansford (nr Peterborough) which were taken yesterday.

Well after watching the BBC graphics this morning, which go up to midnight tomorrow night, it looks like yet again it will be a Midlands and SW Event!!! Why does it keep doing this? The snowline is yet again N + W of London

I can understand your frustration because last monday when I was looking at all those snowy scenes in London I was very disappiinted to miss out.

In answer to your question one of the main reasons is due to a decent block of cold air across the country. Also whenever the UK is under attack from these LP systems to the S the snowline has often been N of London as the SE/S is under a temporary milder sector until the LP pushes away.

The best chances for the SE is if the model output verifies with a cold ENE,ly with upper temps of -10C.

I will add that even if the BBC suggest heavy snow for my location I remain rather sceptical at the moment.

Edited February 8, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Jayces]

With currently another 3 weeks of cold being forecast, I wonder how many more snow watch threads there will be for the SE?

I am keeping a close eye on Mon / Tuesday as I am supposed to be driving to Brighton from London early Tuesday. I don't think it's going to snow but if it's wet and windy that could be just as bad.

Also I have never known in my 20 odd years of being in London to still have laying snow a week after the event.

[JamesL]

You were very unlucky the other day with that model switch which sent the precip too far north so lets hope after this low comes through that things improve for parts of the se which have missed out on much of the snow.

Indeed, however I remain very up beat by the prospects here from wed onwards. It's great to see some others do so well though who often miss out. We've seen snowfall every year for the last 21 years since I moved here, so can't be greedy.

James

[Essex Chelle]

Tbh I dont want any bad weather this coming week (snow/rain) my OH didnt earn a penny last week and has a full diary of work booked in starting today (job is outside) he has to earn this week, bills have to be paid. I am probably the only person here not wanting more snow

[Tom D]

With currently another 3 weeks of cold being forecast, I wonder how many more snow watch threads there will be for the SE?

I am keeping a close eye on Mon / Tuesday as I am supposed to be driving to Brighton from London early Tuesday. I don't think it's going to snow but if it's wet and windy that could be just as bad.

Also I have never known in my 20 odd years of being in London to still have laying snow a week after the event.

I'm only 18 but I've never known snow to hang around for this long; it's Sunday again and there's still a couple of centimetres in shady areas, it's just been a very slow thaw for the past week, no real top-up (unfortunately).

Only went down to -4.0c which is lower than I expected but not as low as was forecast until late last night. Another cloudy start, calm.

Edited February 8, 2009 by Tommyd1258

[TEITS]

Tbh I dont want any bad weather this coming week (snow/rain) my OH didnt earn a penny last week and has a full diary of work booked in starting today (job is outside) he has to earn this week, bills have to be paid. I am probably the only person here not wanting more snow B) B)

Funny you say that because im asking myself at the moment do I really want this Channel storm to bring the blizzards to my location. Some may think this is OTT but due to the amount of snow, strong winds it isn't impossible to see 1ft of lying snow with drifts being 6ft high. The effects of this on my family who live in a rural area would be a nightmare.

I will add that i've seen the BBC forecast and the snow is far more widespread than I thought. Basically anyone N of the M4 upto the Midlands is at risk. Now because of this the SE does run the risk of snow developing during Tues.

Personally im not convinced the snow will be this widespread with the risk being further N i.e Midlands.

[Vesuvius]

Some photos sent to me from my mother in Wansford (nr Peterborough) which were taken yesterday.

I can understand your frustration because last monday when I was looking at all those snowy scenes in London I was very disappiinted to miss out.

In answer to your question one of the main reasons is due to a decent block of cold air across the country. Also whenever the UK is under attack from these LP systems to the S the snowline has often been N of London as the SE/S is under a temporary milder sector until the LP pushes away.

The best chances for the SE is if the model output verifies with a cold ENE,ly with upper temps of -10C.

I will add that even if the BBC suggest heavy snow for my location I remain rather sceptical at the moment.

TBH unless its coming in from the North Sea on an ENE / E I just expect nothing - this way I'm rarely disappointed. I'm about 10 miles away from the driest spot in the UK (Gt Wakering) so can't expect too much from anything coming from the West / South West even in colder climes.

[clark3r]

Funny you say that because im asking myself at the moment do I really want this Channel storm to bring the blizzards to my location. Some may think this is OTT but due to the amount of snow, strong winds it isn't impossible to see 1ft of lying snow with drifts being 6ft high. The effects of this on my family who live in a rural area would be a nightmare.

I will add that i've seen the BBC forecast and the snow is far more widespread than I thought. Basically anyone N of the M4 upto the Midlands is at risk. Now because of this the SE does run the risk of snow developing during Tues.

Personally im not convinced the snow will be this widespread with the risk being further N i.e Midlands.

i think it will be a bit like fri for the southeast maybe a little wet snow tuesday morning but i am hope full thurs - sunday of possible snow showers on a cold north/northeast wind!

[Tom D]

I think it will be similar to Thurs/Friday for me - rain or wet snow here with snow as close as Stevenage. Had it not snowed like it did last Monday I'd probably be going insane! B)

If the BBC are right then I'll get some rain then some snow, but the GFS suggests rain throughout with some sleet at the end. Who has got it right, if either!?

[PB22]

I'm looking forward to an east/northeasterly gale and it lashing down with rain on Tuesday morning. Can't think of anything better. B) I would be dubious about the snow risk because of the milder air associated with this system: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack0a.html

546 DAM close to the low and the fronts there and I think when looking at Tuesday's chart: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack1a.html the snow could be confined to the extreme northern edge of the precipitation band when you look how far away the 528DAM line is from the frontal system. Time will tell of course.

[androcles]

Don't you just love this from the Independant on Sunday:

Best Overall Comment on the Weather: At the peak of Monday's online moanfest about the difficulties of getting to work, David Taylor of Southend wrote this on the BBC message board: "As I started working from home a year ago, I did find it nearly impossible to get out of bed and trudge across the landing to my office. The BBC wasn't very helpful... there were no reports of holdups near the airing cupboard and the bathroom interchange was almost impassable. Gritting was nearly useless – but with the cold floors, it was to be expected. Cancellations were widespread. No bacon and eggs. I had to make do with a replacement toast service. I hope I get home tonight."