Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

[Crazy Weather Guy]

According to the BBC forecast, my area will be on the edge of the snow band for most of tomorrow night (about 40 miles north west(ish) of london). I reckon it could be a close-run thing, even for those further South and East. I hope you all get some - if not, Monday night looks more interesting, as does Tuesday!

[maidstone weather]

The 528dam and -4 uppers are much closer to Kent and Sussex tomorrow night than they were on Thursday or Friday, and there is no mild sector, just a simple occluded front. I think there is a higher chance of snow here tomorrow night than there was on either Thursday or Friday.

Edited February 7, 2009 by maidstone weather

[clark3r]

According to the BBC forecast, my area will be on the edge of the snow band for most of tomorrow night (about 40 miles north west(ish) of london). I reckon it could be a close-run thing, even for those further South and East. I hope you all get some - if not, Monday night looks more interesting, as does Tuesday!

well it certainly looks like we are not going to get an accurate forecast for monday night tuesday until a few hours before the event may unfold! if it hits london there would be so much problems to transport on tues morning!

Edited February 7, 2009 by clark3r

[Timmytour]

Could be a major event tomorrow for places a lot more south than currently forecast. The mild damp air coming up from the south has been making bigger inroads into the colder continental air over the UK than forecast meaning places further north and west have been hit...but I've a feeling that this weekend is where the colder air really starts to assert itself and force down the milder air.

God I hope so anyway!

[maidstone weather]

Interesting, earlier the BBC graphics showed the snow on Monday night across E Anglia and the SE, now the graphics suggest south wales, SW England, Midlands area. I hope not! That would be 3 events in just 5 days where we get flippin' rain! As i understand the BBC charts are a generalised view, I can't help but feel a little downhearted to see the graphics yet again predicting this. For me, i hope the LOW is slightly further south and east than they are predicting

GFS will probably be more accurate than the BBC come Monday morning. For the time being no-one really knows.

[Southender]

The latest beeb forecast says it all for me.

The same places that have had the snow over the last week or so will get pounded again tomorrow night and Monday night.

So most favourable will be again areas N and W of London. Coastal areas of Kent, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk look set to miss out again!

Why is this happening?

Paul S, I look forward to your report, perhaps it will go some way to explaining why our corner of the UK is getting naff all, despite the best synoptics UK wide for many a year.

Edited February 7, 2009 by LeighShrimper

[clark3r]

Interesting, earlier the BBC graphics showed the snow on Monday night across E Anglia and the SE, now the graphics suggest south wales, SW England, Midlands area. I hope not! That would be 3 events in just 5 days where we get flippin' rain! As i understand the BBC charts are a generalised view, I can't help but feel a little downhearted to see the graphics yet again predicting this. For me, i hope the LOW is slightly further south and east than they are predicting

GFS will probably be more accurate than the BBC come Monday morning. For the time being no-one really knows.

i am loosing faith in the beeb and metoffice!

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

looking on there there major snow events for the whole country next week

[Paul Sherman]

TBH

Any Forecast from Me is going to have to wait until at least the 12z Output tomorrow afternoon, It really is going to come down to T6 Or Below as Is always the Case with these Scenarios, If you were to ask me now to stick my head out and force something out of me then the following I am afraid

Sun Into Monday - Rain and Sleet for areas South and East of the Usual Snowfest Line from the past 2 Events - Eg East of Basingstoke and SE Of Bucks, Beds and N Herts

Monday Into Tuesday - Still too marginal for us in the South East, But as Tamara said earlier the chances of better and heavier Precip on the Back edge as the North Easterly Sets In is much better later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

So the Pain continues at the moment, but this could change dramatically over the next 24-36 hours

Sorry Guys

Paul S

[Southender]

TBH

Any Forecast from Me is going to have to wait until at least the 12z Output tomorrow afternoon, It really is going to come down to T6 Or Below as Is always the Case with these Scenarios, If you were to ask me now to stick my head out and force something out of me then the following I am afraid

Sun Into Monday - Rain and Sleet for areas South and East of the Usual Snowfest Line from the past 2 Events - Eg East of Basingstoke and SE Of Bucks, Beds and N Herts

Monday Into Tuesday - Still too marginal for us in the South East, But as Tamara said earlier the chances of better and heavier Precip on the Back edge as the North Easterly Sets In is much better later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

So the Pain continues at the moment, but this could change dramatically over the next 24-36 hours

Sorry Guys

Paul S

Exactly my thoughts aswell.

Those that have had heavy snow over the last 4 or 5 days, will get more over the next few days.

Those that have had a light dusting and mostly sleet/rain will see more of the same.

It's like the snow is taking the same track time and time again. It needs to be shifted some how or we need to let the plug out of the North Sea as this must be the culprit?....

[saint]

TBH

Any Forecast from Me is going to have to wait until at least the 12z Output tomorrow afternoon, It really is going to come down to T6 Or Below as Is always the Case with these Scenarios, If you were to ask me now to stick my head out and force something out of me then the following I am afraid

Sun Into Monday - Rain and Sleet for areas South and East of the Usual Snowfest Line from the past 2 Events - Eg East of Basingstoke and SE Of Bucks, Beds and N Herts

Monday Into Tuesday - Still too marginal for us in the South East, But as Tamara said earlier the chances of better and heavier Precip on the Back edge as the North Easterly Sets In is much better later on Tuesday into Wednesday.

So the Pain continues at the moment, but this could change dramatically over the next 24-36 hours

Sorry Guys

Paul S

We are not that northely in herts but we got snow from both thursday/friday!

[maidstone weather]

Interesting, earlier the BBC graphics showed the snow on Monday night across E Anglia and the SE, now the graphics suggest south wales, SW England, Midlands area. I hope not! That would be 3 events in just 5 days where we get flippin' rain! As i understand the BBC charts are a generalised view, I can't help but feel a little downhearted to see the graphics yet again predicting this. For me, i hope the LOW is slightly further south and east than they are predicting

GFS will probably be more accurate than the BBC come Monday morning. For the time being no-one really knows.

This is the chart i was referring to: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/uk_...in_09021000.jpg

This is really annoying me, that time after time we get rain forecast whilst the west gets snow. Something is wrong with this part of the world in the last few days!

[dogs32]

This is the chart i was referring to: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/uk_...in_09021000.jpg

This is really annoying me, that time after time we get rain forecast whilst the west gets snow. Something is wrong with this part of the world in the last few days! B)

mw when is that chart for mate or is that a previous

edit I see your prev posts..

Edited February 7, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

We are not that northely in herts but we got snow from both thursday/friday!

Like I said Saint, this is still all up in the air and Massive Changes could still occur, need that 528 Dam Line further South still and a bit of Luck with the Low Pressure, It has happened before, just read the weather journals of Past events of Blizzards Setting in from Channel Lows, It is all down to luck of the draw, at least we are getting the Synopics this year.

Like I said Yesterday use the UKMO & ECM For longer Output and that includes where they are positioning a Low Pressure at the 48 Hour range and Use GFS For the T18-T6 Range

Paul S

[nick sussex]

It must be a little frustrating in certain areas of the se to see the same places which have had lots of snow have more again with the Channel Low at the moment looking a little too far north. These features are always notoriously difficult to model with the track changing right upto the last minute so don't throw the towel in just yet. Even if the low does go a little too far north theres still a chance that as it clears eastwards there could be some backedge snow. B)

[angel]

I'm a bit confused..... as I said earlier I was lurking in the model thread this afternoon and from what I could gather it all got very exciting with some stonking snow for us!

However, when I came back a while ago it all seemed to have changed completely (mood and predictions).

Can anyone explain?

Thanks

Anita

[Southender]

It must be a little frustrating in certain areas of the se to see the same places which have had lots of snow have more again with the Channel Low at the moment looking a little too far north. These features are always notoriously difficult to model with the track changing right upto the last minute so don't throw the towel in just yet. Even if the low does go a little too far north theres still a chance that as it clears eastwards there could be some backedge snow. B)

True, but by then the ground could be saturated and it wont stick. Almost worse than not having snow falling at all in my opinion.

Please, please let it swing in our favour for the coastal fringes of Kent/Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk this time...

I don't think I can take seeing these same places, getting pasted again.

B)

[Alpine glow]

Judging by the model discussions, it looks like its going to be a really exciting time to be in this forum over the next few days as where the snow will fall will become more apparent B) Down here in Brighton, we got I would say more than 6 inches of snow last Monday and if I can see that again this Mon/Tues, I will be over the moon - more snowballs on the beach!!! Saying that though, for me at the moment it is fun just to read whats going on here, even if it doesn't land IMBY... B)

[Timmytour]

We are not that northely in herts but we got snow from both thursday/friday!

I don't think it's a straight line north/south split, but a case of the further east you are the further north you need to be. I think we're much the same in terms of how north we are, but being a few miles further east we certainly didn't get anywhere near the amount of snow you got post monday, though we did get a little.

[Southender]

I'm a bit confused..... as I said earlier I was lurking in the model thread this afternoon and from what I could gather it all got very exciting with some stonking snow for us!

However, when I came back a while ago it all seemed to have changed completely (mood and predictions).

Can anyone explain?

Thanks

Anita

No I cant explain it. Maybe Paul's report will help when he releases it.

It's looking like those places that have had inches upon inches of the stuff over the last week, will get pounded again over the next few days.

We seem to have our own microclimate here on the coast of Kent/Essex/Suffolk and Norfolk, which means we are continually ending up on the wrong side of the line.

But, perhaps for the first time this winter, the low may track further South and we end up getting all the white stuff. I'm not holding much hope though. The trend has been there for the last week or so (areas N and W of London getting snow, whilst we get sleet and rain) and I cant see it changing. Here's hoping it does though.

[Golden Hound]

It could be said those of us who live in the far east don't see much percipitation in our part of the country full stop. Be it rain or snow. Maybe thats got something to do with why we missed all the snow last week. Whenever I have travelled west and encountered rain, the intesity is almost always something we do not get over here. It really is a different climate here to elsewhere. Much the same can be said of the Canary Islands, they have a sub-tropical climate at the south of the Island and almost alpine at the top, and the distance between them is some 50 miles. Quite bizarre.

Edited February 7, 2009 by Golden Hound

[Jan 87]

It must be a little frustrating in certain areas of the se to see the same places which have had lots of snow have more again with the Channel Low at the moment looking a little too far north. These features are always notoriously difficult to model with the track changing right upto the last minute so don't throw the towel in just yet. Even if the low does go a little too far north theres still a chance that as it clears eastwards there could be some backedge snow.

Its better to have low expectations, then we wont be disappointed like last thurs and fri.

This is a nowcast event. The low could easly track 100 miles further south or north.

[patrickshere]

The latest beeb forecast says it all for me.

The same places that have had the snow over the last week or so will get pounded again tomorrow night and Monday night.

So most favourable will be again areas N and W of London. Coastal areas of Kent, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk look set to miss out again!

Why is this happening?

Paul S, I look forward to your report, perhaps it will go some way to explaining why our corner of the UK is getting naff all, despite the best synoptics UK wide for many a year.

Looking like we could get hit here again.. We've had snowcover now for almost a week.. Unheard of!

[Paul Sherman]

Although the GFS Has the Low tracking slightly further South on the Pub Run, It is still way too marginal for Snow in the Places that have Missed out. Midalnds, Cambs, Bucks, Beds, Oxon again at this point in time looking likely for a Hit again. We still have the raging Easterly and North Easterly though as the Low tracks across the French/Belgium Border.

But some places are gonna get Buried whilst other will have a Fierce Gale, Biting Cold and RAIN And you know where I am leaning still.

Paul S

[Snowly does it]

Bonus snow flurry here lasting a few minutes - added not much but a dusting to the windowsill and a little on the roof tiles, still, another day with snow falling.