Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia

[clark3r]

Bonus snow flurry here lasting a few minutes - added not much but a dusting to the windowsill and a little on the roof tiles, still, another day with snow falling.

well bbc now forecast 1 degree and heavy rain for me on monday night wait and see

[Paul Sherman]

N1 Charlotte

18z Still showing a nice Back end Snow Event with plenty of Precip later on Tuesday into Wednesday, Virtually the Same Prognosis as Friday Night with the Cold Air Undercutting as the Precip slides away onto the Continent, this time though we might scrape 2-5cm more Widely, which will probably be a scant consolation when looking at pictures of Heavy Snowfall further North and West. After this Wintry Showers on Wednesday from a Brief Northerly and then a quiter day on Thursday.

Remember all could still change at even T6 So there is only one way we can go as Yazz used to say in the 80's

UKMO Has Low just off the French Coast - Better for Us

GFS Has It just off the South Coast - Worse obviously for Us.

But still a Difference of 100-150 Miles in the Modelling of the TRack of this Low even at this stage

Paul S

[jright35]

BBC News 24 just Forcast HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT in the south east and Heavy snow central uk. Well thats, that done then. Nothing to look foward to now then!

[Timmytour]

BBC News 24 just Forcast HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT in the south east and Heavy snow central uk. Well thats, that done then. Nothing to look foward to now then!

And as people in Exter will testify to...the BBC's forecasts are second to none!!!

[maidstone weather]

I think we need to see more eastward shifting of the LOW, rather than southward, as that would limit the amount of warm air advection via the SW winds on the eastern flank of the LOW. Whilst a southward shift is more likely than an eastward shift (but unlikely all the same), I really can't see the southeast seeing snow from this at all. It is yet again, sadly, going to be a Midlands event. As much as I'd like to see this change for our benefit, previous experience from last week says it won't change

Don't trust the GFS when it comes down to frontal snow, so many frontal snow events have occurred when the GFS has just said rain. 23rd November 2008 is a classic to name but a few, the GFS only really cottoned-on a few hours before it happened. Here's hoping the GFS increases snow risks through tomorrow and Monday.

Yet again another 'promised' event that looks unlikely to deliver.

Edited February 7, 2009 by maidstone weather

[angel]

And as people in Exter will testify to...the BBC's forecasts are second to none!!!

Well said!

[ribster]

It could be said those of us who live in the far east don't see much percipitation in our part of the country full stop. Be it rain or snow. Maybe thats got something to do with why we missed all the snow last week. Whenever I have travelled west and encountered rain, the intesity is almost always something we do not get over here. It really is a different climate here to elsewhere. Much the same can be said of the Canary Islands, they have a sub-tropical climate at the south of the Island and almost alpine at the top, and the distance between them is some 50 miles. Quite bizarre.

Well that's certainly not my experience in nigh on 37 years of living here, quite the opposite in fact.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes just looking at the Precip Rates on the Charts, We could be looking at nearly 2" of Rain in the South East Corner With Gale Force Winds, It could be extremeley bad if it hits in Rush Hour etc. With grounds saturated by then Flooding is going to be a major concern early next week. No such problems with flooding as everything should be frozen further to the West where they could be looking at another 1-2 Feet of Snow with Villages Cut Off, This also is not going to be Nice for them over there and Travel could become Chaotic.

Paul S

[clark3r]

I think we need to see more eastward shifting of the LOW, rather than southward, as that would limit the amount of warm air advection via the SW winds on the eastern flank of the LOW. Whilst a southward shift is more likely than an eastward shift (but unlikely all the same), I really can't see the southeast seeing snow from this at all. It is yet again, sadly, going to be a Midlands event. As much as I'd like to see this change for our benefit, previous experience from last week says it won't change

Don't trust the GFS when it comes down to frontal snow, so many frontal snow events have occurred when the GFS has just said rain. 23rd November 2009 is a classic to name but a few, the GFS only really cottoned-on a few hours before it happened. Here's hoping the GFS increases snow risks through tomorrow and Monday.

Yet again another 'promised' event that looks unlikely to deliver.

i think the bbc should only forecast a day or two a head because they cant get it right 3rd time in one week!

[jright35]

Well the bbc were right with regards to the rain in the south east last week!! And im backing them 100% for monday tuesday being rain. The met office are also giving rain.

[Southender]

Yes just looking at the Precip Rates on the Charts, We could be looking at nearly 2" of Rain in the South East Corner With Gale Force Winds, It could be extremeley bad if it hits in Rush Hour etc. With grounds saturated by then Flooding is going to be a major concern early next week. No such problems with flooding as everything should be frozen further to the West where they could be looking at another 1-2 Feet of Snow with Villages Cut Off, This also is not going to be Nice for them over there and Travel could become Chaotic.

Paul S

Shame it wont be snow. It would be like a return to the 80's with 2 feet lying and double that drifting in a strong E/NE wind...

[jright35]

The temp is rising in sittingbourne now its gone up a degree in the last hour. Its now 3oc

[Timmytour]

Yes just looking at the Precip Rates on the Charts, We could be looking at nearly 2" of Rain in the South East Corner With Gale Force Winds, It could be extremeley bad if it hits in Rush Hour etc. With grounds saturated by then Flooding is going to be a major concern early next week. No such problems with flooding as everything should be frozen further to the West where they could be looking at another 1-2 Feet of Snow with Villages Cut Off, This also is not going to be Nice for them over there and Travel could become Chaotic.

Paul S

Yes yes..I know there's a context but..... in another context "not going to be nice" doesn't fit by my definition the way you describe how things will be out in the West :lol:

:lol:

[Paul Sherman]

BBC News 24 just Forcast HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT in the south east and Heavy snow central uk. Well thats, that done then. Nothing to look foward to now then!

But the Meto/BBC Still have a Duty to put out the Warnings for the South East with the Combination of Heavy Rain (1-2") coupled with Strong Winds and Flooding Risks Surely ??

Paul S

[acbrixton]

I think that Paul Sherman's caution is prudent: the chances of snow in the south east early next week are just the wrong side of marginal. A repeat of Friday's pattern of snowfall seems likely at present with, if anything, a more extreme variation in conditions: possibly vast amounts of snow for the Chilterns, for example but little or nothing for most of the region. In the early hours of Friday it was interesting to see snow at Luton and rather more at Milton Keynes where dewpoints were about 0c, but for Stanstead where dewpoints were, for almost all the night, above 0c, rain/icy rain/sleet predominated.

Leigh Shrimper: it is a myth (albeit a stubbornly popular myth) that snow cannot settle on wet surfaces. If the snow is sufficiently heavy it will settle on wet surfaces; e.g. here in inner London all surfaces were wet at 5.30am with sleet but half an hour of heavy snow gave a slight but widespread covering by 6.30am.

I thought that Maidstone Weather's account of significant localised variations in snow cover were interesting. Travelling by railway from London Vauxhall to Weybridge this afternoon it was notable that from Wimbledon onwards the remaining patches of snow became gradually more numerous and bigger so that by Walton-On-Thames a few roofs still had snow. It was striking to see a significant increase in snow remnants in the 2.5 miles from Walton to Weybridge.

regards

ACB

[john mac]

its definately going to be rain, the last few channell lows i can remember, we always get rain and the midlands north get a dumping :lol: :lol:

[Southender]

I have a plan.

How about all of us in Kent/Essex/Suffolk and Norfolk do a syncronised "exhaling" event on Monday night, maybe we can produce enough wind to deflect the low a bit further South?...

[Paul Sherman]

Yes yes..I know there's a context but..... in another context "not going to be nice" doesn't fit by my definition the way you describe how things will be out in the West :lol:

:lol:

:lol:

Yeah sorry just read that back and It sounded wierd, maybe I should have worded it differently :lol:

[jright35]

But the Meto/BBC Still have a Duty to put out the Warnings for the South East with the Combination of Heavy Rain (1-2") coupled with Strong Winds and Flooding Risks Surely ??

Paul S

Yes of course they do nobody questioned that.

[acbrixton]

Re the risk of flooding in parts of the south east it is worth noting that the River Wey at Weybridge is running very high and is almost at bank levels. A combination of heavy rain and a thaw of existing snow makes localised flooding in the area quite likely I think.

regards

ACB

[clark3r]

Yes of course they do nobody questioned that.

i suppose we still have till monday morning when forecasts can change so it is not all doom and gloom!

[Southender]

Cue mass hysteria when the 06z and 12z outputs show the low 100 miles further South and East....

We can but dream.

[jright35]

i suppose we still have till monday morning when forecasts can change so it is not all doom and gloom!

doom and gloom, credit crunch and worst of all NO SNOW!! LOL

[angel]

I have a plan.

How about all of us in Kent/Essex/Suffolk and Norfolk do a syncronised "exhaling" event on Monday night, maybe we can produce enough wind to deflect the low a bit further South?...

I'll be in that!! :lol:

[fatyido]

Im in St.Neots on the A1 in west Cambs, and we done amazing with the amount of snowfall last week.

Still loads of lying snow, and not a blade of grass in sight.

From what I have been reading on here, is it right that I will be in a favourable position for more snow tomorrow evening and the start of next week.?

Would love an expert forecast.