Snow Watch: London, Se England & East Anglia

[Timmytour]

Here at Corton in North Suffolk we have had no snow whatsoever in 2009, and long may this continue.

Must admit...this has been one of the few posts of late in here that hasn't seemed like whining!

[Jan 87]

Paul I may be wrong but I suspect the low & subsequent PPN may be on a slightly southerly track & also looking at the surface obs snow MAY be earlier & more widespread than first thought-

What do you think?

as for the ensembles- still concerning wrt the operational

S

Yes, the higher res operationals are picking up those bloody shortwaves near Iceland. We might get away with it like ECM shows but I'm a bit worried

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi NSSC

Do you think higher elevations will get snow later tonight . Last Friday it took me 3 hours to get home from Bromley to Biggin Hill(7 miles) as it was hit by unexpected heavy snow for a short period which gave about 6cms of snow. This caused bedlam as the roads had not been gritted. Unfortunately many cars were abandoned including my own which resulted in a 2 mile walk across the snow fields of the North Downs in the dark and it is quite remarkable how easy it was to find footpaths through normally pitch black woods because laying snow lit the way.

Very Christmassy scene in the morning . The surrounding areas lower down only had sleety rain.

If your prediction is correct for a repeat of Feb 05, but a colder version that would be fantastic, as the Downs had laying snow for over fortnight and the snow was of the dry and crisp version which is my kind of snow.

Regards CND

Hi - yes I think you are well placed to see snow, if anywhere in the SE corner is to get some snow. At this stage it is impossible to know how things will pan exactly and assess higher ground potential, but tomorrow morning looks a good time for you as I see it

Regarding the further outlook I would prepare for some more winter sports on the North Downs - and elsewhere

Edited February 9, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Paul Sherman]

Paul I may be wrong but I suspect the low & subsequent PPN may be on a slightly southerly track & also looking at the surface obs snow MAY be earlier & more widespread than first thought-

What do you think?

as for the ensembles- still concerning wrt the operational

S

:o Yep on looking at the track certainly Further South atm, but still time for a Correction Northwards, As for More Widespread Snow............ :lol: Forecasters Nightmare Still!! You have a sneaky suspision areas Further South might get something unexpected ???

[frozencanals]

Hi Folks

Looking at the BBC forecast, and at the moment the GFS is not looking too promising either, they are only predicting rain for the SE tonight and tomorrow, so not very encouraging from that point of view, for snow, added to that it feels very warm in central London at the moment. When I landed at Stansted there was still a lot of snow laying around and flying in from the north of Stansted I was suprised how white the areas just north of Stansted were.

Cheers

FC

[SnowJoke]

Temps seem to be lowering slightly, down to 1.6'c dewpoint 1.1'c. No doubt it seems colder than forcasters had predicted this early on in the day, were saying 4 - 5'c towards here till after dark. Was raining earlier, but now stopped. Clouds in the sky have gotten the strange look about them now, if you can line them up with lying snow it's sort of hard to distiguish from the two. Im guessing with current ob's round here, looking good later on for snowfall. Especially as the low seems to running more to the south, give a longer time for colder air to dig into the really heavy stuff :lol:

Edited February 9, 2009 by SnowJoke

[SnowAngel]

Temps seem to be lowering slightly, down to 1.6'c dewpoint 1.1'c. No doubt it seems colder than forcasters had predicted this early on in the day, were saying 4 - 5'c towards here till after dark. Was raining earlier, but now stopped. Clouds in the sky have gotten the strange look about them now, if you can line them up with lying snow it's sort of hard to distiguish from the two. Im guessing with current ob's round here, looking good later on for snowfall. Especially as the low seems to running more to the south, give a longer time for colder air to dig into the really heavy stuff :lol:

Has anyone any thoughts how the Chilterns will fare for snow tonight/tomorrow? Its very hard to find us on weather maps as we arent East Anglia, South, Midlands or Greater London

[Timmytour]

Am I right in thinking that a good shift south for the track of this low, without being too drastic, would be really good news for us on this thread?

[SnowJoke]

Has anyone any thoughts how the Chilterns will fare for snow tonight/tomorrow? Its very hard to find us on weather maps as we arent East Anglia, South, Midlands or Greater London

Buckinghamshire, oxfordshire and northants are all under met warning of 60% tonight for heavy snow. Including Milton Keynes where I am, think you may see some snowfall, but your closer to the M4 corridor being 40 or so miles further south. Just keep your fingers crossed that the low pressure seems to be running further south than forcasted by the models at the moment, which will bring the risk of overnight snowfall further south too :lol:

[Charltonkerry]

Bit surprised to see the odd bit of sleet mixed in with the rain on the windscreen as i got home, car temp said 4.5°C. Probable not a sign of things to come but was only expecting rain?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, the higher res operationals are picking up those bloody shortwaves near Iceland. We might get away with it like ECM shows but I'm a bit worried

The eventual destination even if the GFS operational is right is a cold one. Northern arm spoiler shortwave energies are fighting a losing battle the longer time goes on. They are going to loose their life source.

[Paul Sherman]

Am I right in thinking that a good shift south for the track of this low, without being too drastic, would be really good news for us on this thread?

Hi Timmy

Yes it cant hurt although I still feel Uppers are way too Marginal for most places in the South East. Now if this was a Channel Low which ran into a Proper Block of Scandi High Pressure with -5 to -10 Uppers already across the Uk then this would be a Snow Bonanza of the likes you used to read about.

Recent Obs suggest 4c/2c in Cambridge, Stanstead 4c/2c, Southend 5c/4c, Luton 3c/1c and Oxford 3c/1c

So it is much more Favourable to the North West, and by the time the Winds swing Northerly then the Snow Risk Increases further South and East and at a lower Elevation. I would say 200mtrs in the Greater London area, 150 Metres in Herts, 100mtres in Cambs etc, so Sea Level Snow the further North and West you go.

Paul S

[Coast]

Recent Obs suggest 4c/2c in Cambridge, Stanstead 4c/2c, Southend 5c/4c, Luton 3c/1c and Oxford 3c/1c

Eastbourne 7 DgC

[bunny1972]

hi can anyone help and tell me why here on east coast havent had any snow at all just cold rain!!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

hi can anyone help and tell me why here on east coast havent had any snow at all just cold rain!!!!!

Too much WAA (Warm Air Advection) being picked up from the Low Pressure Areas coming up from the South West picking up Milder Air from a relatively Warm English Channel and keeping it over the East Coast and South East! Same For Me

Paul S

Latest Obs Updated

Southend 5c/3c

Stanstead 4c/3c

Luton 3c/3c

Cambridge 4c/4c

Coventry 3c/2c

Lon Gatwick 3c/2c

[SMU]

Too much WAA (Warm Air Advection) being picked up from the Low Pressure Areas coming up from the South West picking up Milder Air from a relatively Warm English Channel and keeping it over the East Coast and South East! Same For Me

Paul S

Paul look at the 12Z 18 hours through 30 Hr-

S

[Paul Sherman]

Paul look at the 12Z 18 hours through 30 Hr-

S

-5 to -10 Uppers with a Keen Northerly

Thats more Like It!!

Snow Showers tomorrow then ??

[SMU]

:lol: :lol:

-5 to -10 Uppers with a Keen Northerly

Thats more Like It!!

Snow Showers tomorrow then ?? :lol:

& T 48- Polar low slider-

Im looking at the radar still thinking this isnt getting nowhere near as far North as the GFS & ECM thought it originally wood-

The crunch time for the SE- looks to be between midnight & 6am tomorrow fr any chance of back edge snow-

Steve

S

[JamesL]

Good to see you back on here Steve.

Temp here is on the way down.

3.9c here in N Kent

James

Edit The low slider was well highlighted on the 06z meto too...Nice!

Edited February 9, 2009 by JamesL

[Shunter]

Bit surprised to see the odd bit of sleet mixed in with the rain on the windscreen as i got home, car temp said 4.5°C. Probable not a sign of things to come but was only expecting rain?

Just experienced the same travelling back from Croydon to gravesend. Temp around 3.7c and dropping

[Snow Obsession]

There is sleet on the hills in High Wycombe now, having had rain all day. Temperature on my car was 6C when I went out at 3pm and 4C when I got back at 3.45 - probably not very reliable but that's quite a drop!

[Paul Sherman]

Damn :huh:

This is a VERY Cold Run from the 12z. More Importantly Looking Nice for the East and South East, Once Again the GFS Playing Catch Up to UKMO & ECMWF But liking the Look of the way it is trending.

I think you might be right about the Northern Extent Steve, It has ground to a Halt in a Line from Suffolk across to Cardiff, If anything the Heavier stuff is moving Directly East, Maybe as you say things could get Interesting after Midnight for the E & SE once that Northerly Gale Sets In as the Low exits the Dover Straights, Need the Cold Air to keep diving South for the next 8 hours - Is there a Praying Smiley!! B)

Paul S

[gornaldo]

Oh how the tide has turned.... Maybe.... ****PRAYS*****

[willinkent]

Currently 3.9c here in north kent. Was upto 7c at midday and now its falling away slowly..... was meant to be 7-8c looking at models for now until midnight..... wonder whats going on?

[rich1]

Rain turning quite sleety down here now with temperaatures falling away a little

not expecting too much but is interesting...