Storm Discussion

[Lewis]

At the risk of providing evidence for any forecast I make, here is a completely, partial forecast, with no reference to any website at all:

Black is good chance of t/storms, red is potential for severe. It will all change of course, but, in my opinion, E Anglia is where you need to be for Monday, particularly late evening.

EDIT: perhaps a touch more north for the red circle

Close, i would go for;

darker severe storms red general thunderstorms

[dogs32]

Rob from the BBC WIDESPREAD showers or TS accross UK......only staying dry in S/E

FALLING IN LINE WITH sky :lol:

Edited June 14, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

Close,

Yeah, I edited my forecast a little bit more northward, after I posted. There's good reason for this, but, I think, that regarding comments earlier on, I'm not really allowed to post such charts. Sorry.

[Lewis]

Yeah, I edited my forecast a little bit more northward, after I posted. There's good reason for this, but, I think, that regarding comments earlier on, I'm not really allowed to post such charts. Sorry.

Post such what charts? I dont understand..

[dave48]

Just had a quick look at the latest FAX charts, met office got the trough running down from the north east to london, the probable focus for the best activity. Might be a few more troughs swinging in though so hoping to catch something on one of those. Will be staying in Exeter, so a very marginal chance of a thunderstorm.

[VillagePlank]

Post such what charts? I dont understand..

The weatheronline suite, I'm afraid, which is the only place where such charts can be found for free. Someone moaned about me posting them, so, in order to keep the peace, I won't bother looking at them, posting them into paint, editing their format, saving them to my desktop, and then, finally, posting a commentary.

[Lewis]

The weatheronline suite, I'm afraid, which is the only place where such charts can be found for free. Someone moaned about me posting them, so, in order to keep the peace, I won't bother looking at them, posting them into paint, editing their format, saving them to my desktop, and then, finally, posting a commentary.

Ah right ok, i understand now :lol:

[hammerb32]

What??? Why are you even replying to my comments when you clearly don't have a clue what happened. Nothing in advance? Do some research. The Meto knew that conditions were favourable for 'Strong Tornadoes' in the Midlands, take a look at the synoptic chart for that day when the Tornado struck.

I watched the forecasts that day and all I was told was that there was going to be showers and the risk of thunderstorms. Please don't reply if you don't know what happened that day.

My last post on the subject, but I urge you research the incident before laying jusgement at the MetO for not issuing a warning of a 'strong tornado', to my knowledge they have never issued such a warning and to my knowledge the Bham tornado was unprecedented in strength. Channel 4 aired a documentary about the incident some time after the day in which an experienced storm chaser from the US visited the scene, even he stated there was no way of warning the affected area in advance, suggest you look it up. BTW I know full well what happende don the day, I was assisiting in the clear up most of the night.

Anyways back to tomorrow, safe to say Eastern England seems to be favourable for the brunt but should be a lot interest in the West in the build up seems to be the main call?

[Ross B]

Bit wet up north...Ross was stuck in flash floods in Dumbarton for 3 hours!!! :lol:

Not a freaking drop of rain in Helensburgh.,...FML

Yes, thanks Alison. I'm just back after being stuck in flash floods for 3 hours. Saw some pretty large hail and frequent thunder and lightnning. I have loads of photos and video. Hundreds of cars were stuck in the jam... will upload after i have had something to eat.

[dave48]

New high res run looks great, fantastic CAPE all round, fairly steep lapse rates and even some DLS improvement for the east, although it moves off into the north sea by early evening which means it may not coincide with the best convection. The winds make things seem a little more hopeful for the Exeter area, steering more from the west, so hoping something will run off of Dartmoor, but a thunderstorm here tomorrow remains a long shot.

[Stuart]

Rob from the BBC WIDESPREAD showers or TS accross UK......only staying dry in S/E

FALLING IN LINE WITH sky :lol:

Good hope i see some on monday then i miss out with 6 miles

[dogs32]

Didnt anyone see Rob Macawee.....he said widespread torrentail showers with TS ....

didnt say where in particular.only mentioned the S/E staying dry

edit

sorry Stu didnt see your post

Edited June 14, 2009 by dogs32

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Didnt anyone see Rob Macawee.....he said widespread torrentail showers with TS ....

Is he a fraud?

[dogs32]

:lol:

Is he a fraud?

whatever his name his

[VillagePlank]

Is he a fraud?

No he is most probably right. Most models are point to a a mid-England adventure, with nothing, particularly for the South. Surface heating excluded of course. If you live in the south and it warms up much more than GFS has forecast then you're in for a chance, I think. There is also a chance of some SE movement of storms formed in the favourable area, which means the S/E.

[Neilsouth]

Anyone got any ideas?

All day across to my south has been this constant stream of dark cumulus , they seem to be hitting a cap as they are not growing any further. Any idea what is causing this development? , is it something to do with the hills around canterbury?

[dogs32]

VP thats the ONLY place he said might stay dry.elsewhere anyones chance ...thats my impression of his TS forecast

[VillagePlank]

Anyone got any ideas?

All day across to my south has been this constant stream of dark cumulus , they seem to be hitting a cap as they are not growing any further. Any idea what is causing this development? , is it something to do with the hills around canterbury?

Unlikely that hills would stop convection; they add to it in something called orographic lift. Just not the right conditions, I'm afraid.

[Guest]

The weatheronline suite, I'm afraid, which is the only place where such charts can be found for free. Someone moaned about me posting them, so, in order to keep the peace, I won't bother looking at them, posting them into paint, editing their format, saving them to my desktop, and then, finally, posting a commentary.

Oh how irritating. I hope that moaning person realises how ridiculous that sounds :lol:

Anywho, a couple of small showers have developed over north Wales recently, I shall be watching to see if any evening showers or small tsms spark off in the next few hours

Edited June 14, 2009 by Shelby770

[VillagePlank]

VP thats the ONLY place he said might stay dry.elsewhere anyones chance ...thats my impression of his TS forecast

Yup, and that's my guess, too.

I would go for, however, a late swing south - very late on - that pushes some storms southwards. However, excessive heating, in the normal places, might be enough to kick of some good stuff. It will on the basis of the GFS evidence, to little, to late, though.

Excessive heating will change the story though. So keep tuned :lol:

(as will the Low pressure track, but lets not talk about that, huh? - that's clutching at straws)

Edited June 14, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Lewis]

Oh how irritating. I hope that moaning person realises how ridiculous that sounds :lol:

Anywho, a couple of small showers have developed over north Wales recently, I shall be watching to see if any evening showers or small tsms spark off in the next few hours

4% chance of that happening

[weatherobsuk]

Oh how irritating. I hope that moaning person realises how ridiculous that sounds :lol:

Anywho, a couple of small showers have developed over north Wales recently, I shall be watching to see if any evening showers or small tsms spark off in the next few hours

A single sferic coming from this N.Wales shower on the latest NW Radar, the odd big CU thats bubbling up but convection only in small pockets rather than anything substantial. Cooling may spark the N.Wales shower into life a bit more as the night draws in, but after dark it'll quickly die off (assuming it ever matures.)

[dogs32]

Susan Powell confirms it on countryy file....any ones :lol:

Russian Roulette.....could be anywhere where we get some TS

Tomorrow morning is going to exciting whatching them develope

Edited June 14, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

Russian Roulette.....could be anywhere where we get some TS

Yep - anywhere, but, central England is favourefd right now, and, the later in the day, the more East you need to be.

[Stuart]

Susan Powell confirms it on countryy file....any ones :lol:

Russian Roulette.....could be anywhere where we get some TS

Tomorrow morning is going to exciting whatching them develope

sure is pat i whatching the Clouds all day and being here