Convective/storm Discussion

[Lewis]

What exactly does that statement mean?.....Sorry, but posts like that irritate the hell out of me....How can you say 'doubt there was any rotation'...were you there??

there was fast rotation, enough to make several cars pull over and people getting out to observe, my collegue was on his phone describing it to his wife...Radar returns confirm my ground observation

Wait Wait Wait, i mis-read Paul S post, i thought you had seen a funnel, someone else posted about a funnel, and then Paul S said something about a tornado near you, but he said "could turn into a tornado"... My bad please forgive me, i've had a long hard day (Got the flu) and no it's not swine thank god

Edited July 13, 2009 by Lewis

[dave48]

Nice pics AJ, glad you saw some good stuff, still waiting to see my first funnel myself, but Bath and it's hills make it difficult to see anything from where I live.

And I personally do believe you saw this much debated 'rotation', for two reasons, the set up completly backs it up and more importantly because you saw it, not me! I don't understand how people can doubt things they have not seen when totally respectable members are reporting them!

[A.J]

Hi aj, those pics do show some suspect low hangin clouds, I cannot tell if there was any rotation obviously as they are still pics but they do look like low hanging scud so if there was rotation then that's a great find! A successful chase I might add!

That was my 2nd thought, ie scud in front of the cloud base (whilst on the motorway)....but its when I got closer (off the motorway) that I realised it was really interesting, thats when I got on the blower and gave Paul a ring...It literally passed overhead, over the top of the A435, with a short gust of wind and hail...what I saw as it passed overhead was scud spinning quite rapidly, thats what got the people out of cars...I've seen many storms, both here and in the States, and IMO it was definitley not a standard gust front

note to Lewis, no worries, just please read the posts properly, as in the past few months there seems to be an increasing amount of members shedding doubt on storm reports....as Paul posted earlier, I wouldnt disturb his evening, unless I had very good reason to

[Greeny]

That was my 2nd thought, ie scud in front of the cloud base (whilst on the motorway)....but its when I got closer (off the motorway) that I realised it was really interesting, thats when I got on the blower and gave Paul a ring...It literally passed overhead, over the top of the A435, with a short gust of wind and hail...what I saw as it passed overhead was scud spinning quite rapidly, thats what got the people out of cars...I've seen many storms, both here and in the States, and IMO it was definitley not a standard gust front

note to Lewis, no worries, just please read the posts properly, as in the past few months there seems to be an increasing amount of members shedding doubt on storm reports....as Paul posted earlier, I wouldnt disturb his evening, unless I had very good reason to

Oh man I understand the buzz that you must have got, its all very well seeing pics or even vid but actually being there for what you see is a different story! The 06/07/09 gust front that I experienced made my heart stop. I drove under trees that completely covered the sky for half a mile and I knew I was under that thing omg I just hoped that something bad wasnt about to strike. Came out to see the powerful gust. So yes I hope you enjoyed your adrenalin rush without having the safety of your own comp watching vids of others doing it!

[Greeny]

That was my 2nd thought, ie scud in front of the cloud base (whilst on the motorway)....but its when I got closer (off the motorway) that I realised it was really interesting, thats when I got on the blower and gave Paul a ring...It literally passed overhead, over the top of the A435, with a short gust of wind and hail...what I saw as it passed overhead was scud spinning quite rapidly, thats what got the people out of cars...I've seen many storms, both here and in the States, and IMO it was definitley not a standard gust front

note to Lewis, no worries, just please read the posts properly, as in the past few months there seems to be an increasing amount of members shedding doubt on storm reports....as Paul posted earlier, I wouldnt disturb his evening, unless I had very good reason to

Oh man I understand the buzz that you must have got, its all very well seeing pics or even vid but actually being there for what you see is a different story! The 06/07/09 gust front that I experienced made my heart stop. I drove under trees that completely covered the sky for half a mile and I knew I was under that thing omg I just hoped that something bad wasnt about to strike. Came out to see the powerful gust. So yes I hope you enjoyed your adrenalin rush without having the safety of your own comp watching vids of others doing it

Omg double post how did that happen!

Edited July 13, 2009 by Greenday

[dave48]

GFS has suggested a plume for thursday night into friday morning for a while now, so worth keeping an eye on.

Edited July 14, 2009 by dave48

[Koppite]

Tracking 1 thunderstorm

Cell ID P-2641 detected at 06:03 from 21.5° at a distance of 192 miles. Storm is weak and steady.

Thunderstorm on the loose already, at a guess its the cell down to the southwest.

[Costa Del Fal]

Evening all.....well, that was an interesting journey home!....I was driving west on the M42 with one of my work collegues, just past the M42/M40 interchange and we both spotted an interesting cloud formation to my SW...My first thought was 'Thats a Wall Cloud, with tail cloud'...took a couple of dodgy pics on my mobile whilst driving...I pulled off at Junction 3, nr Hocksley Heath, gave Paul S a ring to see if anything interesting was showing up on radar nearby, he mentioned a possible 'hook echo' at my location...the cloud base was a mile or so to my SW....I saw definite fast rotation in what I can only describe as low scud spinning around on a horizontal axis pass overhead SW to NE, this was accompanied by a sharp wind squall and heavy rain/hail mix....I drove back NEwards towards Solihull, but coudnt see anything due to the rainband.....I then carried on down the M42, and then north on the M5, but looking at this evenings posts, was very interested to read 'Blizzards' post on a possible funnel, as I'm sure I saw a short-lived funnel to my west in a seperate cell around 9:00pm, which would be to the east of Stourbridge....The whole incident nr Hockley Heath only lasted a couple of minutes or so, but wow, serious adreneline rush!!

mobile phone pics at a distance of 5-10 miles....very poor quality but I was doing 70 mph at the time!...I'm going to run them through photoshop later, see if I can zoom and clean up a bit........I've some mobile phone video footage of the overhead scud rotation which I'm trying to work out how the hell to upload and post....Hopefully it will be up later

Very interesting! If it was a funel i observed which was very small (emphasis on very small!!!) and short lived and it was about 9pm to my East aswell perhaps around the Dudley/Sandwell border?

[Coast]

ESTOFEX kick off with a general watch over most of the UK and a level 1 for Ireland:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 14 Jul 2009 06:00 to Wed 15 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 14 Jul 2009 06:17

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for N Spain, parts of France and the north side of the Alps mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for Ireland (and the UK) for spouts and isolated excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

A stationary warm front is situated over S/C France and southern Germany. Strong mid level winds blow parallel to the front and create vertical shear favourable for severe storms. A low pressure system moves slowly over the British Isles.

Another stationary frontal system lies over Ukraine and Russia.

Low pressure is also present over the western Mediterranean Sea and eastern Spain, where a shortwave is predicted by GFS to pass and move during the night to the Alps.

DISCUSSION

...Ireland...

Given slow storm motion in the trough that stretches over the country, good 0-3 km CAPE and weak winds, spouts can form, as well as locally large precipitation sums. This may also occur over the UK, but flow is stronger there which should diminish the chances somewhat.

UKASF broadly the same with a highlighted watch for twisters!

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-13 22:59:00

Valid: 2009-07-14 00:00:00 - 2009-07-14 23:59:00

Regions Affected

The whole of the United Kingdom and Ireland, excluding southeast England

Synopsis

An elongated area of LOW pressure will be the dominant feature of the weather across the UK on Tuesday, with it's centres over the north Atlantic just southwest of Ireland, and over Northern Scotland respectively. Some showers will be present even at daybreak across the U.K., especially across northeast Scotland. Showers will quickly develop in some southern counties of England during the first part of the morning, these intensifying and heading northeastwards during the afternoon. Further scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop thanks to embedded troughs and fronts within the anticyclonic flow around the area of LOW pressure. Slow-moving torrential downpours may cause local flash flooding, particularly in central, northern and western parts where the showers will be most frequent. Hail is also very likely to accompany the showers and thunderstorms. There is an enhanced risk of a tornado developing, particularly over England and Wales south of a line Mersey-Humber. Whilst most showers and thunderstorms will slowly decay during the evening, descrete bands will persist well into the night, especially across Southwest England and Wales, Northern England and western Scotland.

TORRO on board with this too!!!!

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2009/004

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been updated at 18:30GMT on Monday 13th July 2009

Valid from/until: 14:30 - 00:00GMT on Mon/Tue 13th/14th July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

**Addition: parts of E Mids/Lincs*** SW England Midlands N England Wales S Scotland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; marginally severe hail; wind gusts to 55mph; CG lightning; heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

Strong vort-max moving NE through Irish Sea. Showers and thunderstorms, exhibiting 'long' radar echoes, indicated of strong shear - indeed, 0-6km shear of 35-40 knots is present on the eastern side of the upper low. In addition, 0-1km SREH of over 100 J/Kg is present. These storms bring the risk of isolated tornadoes, perhaps to T4, given the low-level shear, along with wind/hail.

Another interesting day then today, not so much here in the SE corner (sorry Harry!!!) but plenty of potential almost anywhere else.

Edited July 14, 2009 by Coast

[Harry]

Another exciting day in the SE then

Very warm here already, just a shame nothing will come of it.

The likes of Jane Louise, Weather09 and the rest of Midlands/W Midlands posse seem to have a fair to decent chance today - best of luck

Edited July 14, 2009 by Harry

[Mike Storm]

I dunno Harry we might get something, there is a quite intense cell heading my way from the south coast giving red echoes on the radar sholud arrive in about 30 mins or so

Edited July 14, 2009 by MikeStanton

[Lynxus]

Another exciting day in the SE then

Very warm here already, just a shame nothing will come of it.

The likes of Jane Louise, Weather09 and the rest of Midlands/W Midlands posse seem to have a fair to decent chance today - best of luck

Grey sky here.

16c

Probably end up like yesterday, Drizzle with the odd bit of sunshine.

Shields at 110%

[Wynn D Woo]

Grey sky here.

16c

Probably end up like yesterday, Drizzle with the odd bit of sunshine.

Shields at 110%

Yep yesterday was disappointing and I see no reason to get excited today either! As you say its grey cool and drizzly here

[Lewis]

Possibly T4 Tornado's today, LMFAO

sorry that made my day

[Harry]

I dunno Harry we might get something, there is a quite intense cell heading my way from the south coast giving red echoes on the radar sholud arrive in about 30 mins or so

Good point - just noticed that myself too!

Atm it's packing some quite intense rainfall in places, but generally it seems to be weakening some what, and nothing electrical detected either by the looks of things.

Lightly raining here at the moment, though once clears will just make it a warm and muggy feeling afternoon.

[Methuselah]

There are already anvils away to my south and southeast. Could be an interesting day...

[Coast]

Earlier update from MetO:

Highlands & Eilean Siar: Highland

Heavy Rain 1300 Tue 14 2100 Tue 14

Scattered heavy showers will develop this afternoon and early evening with isolated thunderstorms. The showers will be slow moving and could give rainfall accumulations of 15mm in a 3 hour period.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the latest Scottish Environment Protection Agency 'Live Flood Warning Information' for further advice on flooding. Also refer to Traffic Scotland for advice on road conditions.

Issued at: 0830 Tue 14 Jul

[Methuselah]

Aye, there are convections cells building rapidly, and it's horribly humid!

[Noctilucid]

Torrential rain and rumbles here, a weak storm but a storm nonetheless, but clearing from the SW, that makes at least 1 thunderstorms every week for the last 4 weeks, the last storm being this time last week.

And aparrently the SE is storm starved! T'is been a very thundery summer here.

Edited July 14, 2009 by jshaw

[Coast]

Interesting to see how things pan out for the SW later this afternoon (and possibly further East along the South Coast) with respect to shear and tornado's:

[Harry]

I hear you JShaw - sadly the more intense precip just missed me to my E, however there is another cell which has rapidly intensified to my SSW and is en route for here.

Seeing as the cell you received was electrical, there is nothing to suggest this one wont be either. IF I do get some thunder in the next 20-30 minutes, it will be a shock to say the least as I was far from expecting anything

And I also agree the SE has not been storm starved so far this year, in fact far from it. What we do have to acknowledge though is most of the thunder days have been localised, exc this time last week which was far more widespread. Poor MW and TN9 and seen virtually nothing while us a bit further NW have seen a lot.

[Mike Storm]

had a direct hit about 20 mins ago red echos on the radar right over head , very intense rain haily stuff for about 5 mins!

[JRMcLeod]

Awesome. If they are rotating i'd say there was a chance! Are you taking any photos?

Another storm just pepping up here with distant thunder, i have a few videos of the storm, one of the best in years. Once i have converted them i will upload them.

[Lynxus]

Fair bit of convection round here.

Now 19c up from 16c a few hours ago.

Sky is clearing, quite windy though.

I cant see the storm risk myself. Lets hope im pleasantly surprised.

-G

[dave48]

In the forecast area again for some reason but I don't think this set up will bring anything for here today, if anything does get going though it looks good for some tornados.

Convection is alright here and just had a very short shower.