Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[TEITS]

Just been looking at the temps at 12.00 and you can really see the difference between those who have snow cover and those that don't. Much of the Midlands is currently -1C and yet in Peterborough its -5C.

I can see someone recording -8/-9C in England come tomorrow morning.

[lesta_snow]

Just been looking at the temps at 12.00 and you can really see the difference between those who have snow cover and those that don't. Much of the Midlands is currently -1C and yet in Peterborough its -5C.

I can see someone recording -8/-9C in England come tomorrow morning.

Yet its about -3c here in leicester and probably be -6/7 by the morning but cant see how it wont be snow tomorrow evening :S

[Convection currents]

yeah,fingers crossed for tomorrow evening/night - still waiting for our fair share of snow Like most, still have the remains of 10min 'blizzard' on thursday lol....about 0.3cm lol

[cyclonic happiness]

Looking better today from our snow potential tonight (but fingers crossed).

In case anyone is in doubt, here is the latest snowcover map for Europe, Britain looks good and white....but....wait?....what's that green patch in the middle?....ah yes! that'll be the west midlands then.

[towbar0]

Looking better today from our snow potential tonight (but fingers crossed).

In case anyone is in doubt, here is the latest snowcover map for Europe, Britain looks good and white....but....wait?....what's that green patch in the middle?....ah yes! that'll be the west midlands then.

Typical! Says it all really.

However, Dense fog again and -3.4c, and all very pretty

Edited December 23, 2009 by towbar0

[Nabraxas]

Oh would you look at that... the Meto Severe Weather Warnings are avoiding the Midlands again

[towbar0]

Oh would you look at that... the Meto Severe Weather Warnings are avoiding the Midlands again

I told you, they do it deliberately

[hilldweller]

Just been looking at the temps at 12.00 and you can really see the difference between those who have snow cover and those that don't. Much of the Midlands is currently -1C and yet in Peterborough its -5C.

I can see someone recording -8/-9C in England come tomorrow morning.

Hi TEITS,

Yes you are quite correct we got down to -9.8 .

Take a look at the link below

Kind regards,

Kev Walker

linky clicky thing

[Nick L]

Tonight will be the same as Saturday night but far more marginal IMO. The ppn looks very narrow with the odd intense area, much like Saturday. I feel this is going to be another let down unfortunately.

[TEITS]

Tonight will be the same as Saturday night but far more marginal IMO. The ppn looks very narrow with the odd intense area, much like Saturday. I feel this is going to be another let down unfortunately.

You can't base what may happen later on the current radar sequence as you don't know how or what will develop.

I would love to give everyone an answer especially as im supposed to be going out tonight for a ruby. However as those in Reading learn't on monday the forecast doesn't always go to plan. When your in a marginal situation its the intensity of the precip that makes the difference between heavy rain or snow. This is exactly what happened on Monday which is what caused the incorrect forecast and general mayhem. However those in the W midlands have a better chance than those in the E midlands due to the associated warm front.

[Nick L]

You can't base what may happen later on the current radar sequence as you don't know how or what will develop.

I would love to give everyone an answer especially as im supposed to be going out tonight for a ruby. However as those in Reading learn't on monday the forecast doesn't always go to plan. When your in a marginal situation its the intensity of the precip that makes the difference between heavy rain or snow. This is exactly what happened on Monday which is what caused the incorrect forecast and general mayhem. However those in the W midlands have a better chance than those in the E midlands due to the associated warm front.

I just had a quick look on the NMM (which got Saturday down to a tee), looks like an hour, 2 at most of precipitation. We had an hour of that level of precipitation on Saturday, wasn't a marginal situation - and didn't even get past the 0.5cm level!

[MKN]

Even if it does snow tonight latest bbc forecasts of "maybe a cm or 2" isnt quite the same as "the potential for significant snow" shefali said yesterday.

[Costa Del Fal]

I think the forecast has changed quite a bit since late last night. Our snow chances remains similar-Marginal for everyone where the precip is and how long it lasts seems to have changed. Its all to play for tonight!

Things should develop in the SW tonight so whats there right now wont look much! It should be better later.

[TEITS]

I just had a quick look on the NMM (which got Saturday down to a tee), looks like an hour, 2 at most of precipitation. We had an hour of that level of precipitation on Saturday, wasn't a marginal situation - and didn't even get past the 0.5cm level!

One thing I have learn't since following the weather is models will never accurately predict showers. They may predict the track of these but its difficult to predict the intensity. Always use the radar and check your local observations i.e temps, dewpoints.

[Costa Del Fal]

One thing I have learn't since following the weather is models will never accurately predict showers. They may predict the track of these but its difficult to predict the intensity. Always use the radar and check your local observations i.e temps, dewpoints.

I agree, there also tends to be more showers than the charts may suggest aswell. Tonight is definately down to radar reports and seeing reports from further South as it heads towards you.

[Serendipity]

My big concern would be temperatures and dew points. Some people on here reporting very low ones last night, ours never got lower than -3.5. It is currently -1.3 with a dp of -2.5. Will today be the day we lose our snow and ice?

[we_want_snow]

The whole dynamics of the band appear to have changed overnight, it was coming from the SW, now look

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Alot more Southerly

[Costa Del Fal]

The whole dynamics of the band appear to have changed overnight, it was coming from the SW, now look

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Alot more Southerly

I suppose now its Southerly, there shouldnt be much in the way to destroy the intensity of the Precip for us like a SW would probably do.

[stewfox]

You can't base what may happen later on the current radar sequence as you don't know how or what will develop.

I would love to give everyone an answer especially as im supposed to be going out tonight for a ruby. However as those in Reading learn't on monday the forecast doesn't always go to plan. When your in a marginal situation its the intensity of the precip that makes the difference between heavy rain or snow. This is exactly what happened on Monday which is what caused the incorrect forecast and general mayhem. However those in the W midlands have a better chance than those in the E midlands due to the associated warm front.

I have to agree as I work in Reading what happen there on Monday , heavy heavy snow (which is still everywhere and all over the trees etc) was not 'forecast'.

The drive up home up the A34 to North Oxfordshire showed after 15 miles outside of Reading (North) hardly any snow and just sleet.

On here we should know more then anywhere else that 15 miles in the wrong place and its sleet or cloudy skies but heavy snow for others (even without elevation). Monday night in point up to 3am watching the snow 'hover' 5/6 miles south of where I live.

Today is going to be interesting on three points

1 How much snow falls from this 'mild incurssion from the south' .

2. How long it last before or if it goes back to rain

3. where it stays as snow

All that will be window watching.

In North Oxfordshire we only have a light dusting on the ground at present, I assume places like Peterborough have a lot more and will have a better chance (IF) the south midland dosesnt get much snow of seeing a 'white christmas@. White Christmas for me is at least 50% snow cover

Edited December 23, 2009 by stewfox

[TEITS]

Bad news for those in the W Midlands as the 06Z GFS takes much of the precip into E Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs153.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs183.gif

At the moment looking at the temps/dewpoints it could well start as snow for the E Midlands but probably turning sleety/rain later.

[azores92]

No that isn't what is coming our way, it is yet to develop out to the SW. Either way it doesn't look to be a significant amount of PPN but we can't be sure yet.

not at the moment, but showers are notoriously fickle to forecast. this evening is a real knife edge situation, but i would imagine it is likely that most who have even a small covering in the midlands will have nothing come the morning. given the extreme marginality of this event, sleet is the most likely outcome, and the lawns will almost certainly return to their normal green status in the morning.

[Costa Del Fal]

Bad news for those in the W Midlands as the 06Z GFS takes much of the precip into E Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs153.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs183.gif

At the moment looking at the temps/dewpoints it could well start as snow for the E Midlands but probably turning sleety/rain later.

Hasnt it been like that for a few runs now?:lol:

It got the intensity wrong for Saturday night here anyway. It showed just the one for us yet we were having very heavy snow for a time and much of the rest of it was moderate not light. Its all to play for!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Bad news for those in the W Midlands as the 06Z GFS takes much of the precip into E Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs153.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs183.gif

At the moment looking at the temps/dewpoints it could well start as snow for the E Midlands but probably turning sleety/rain later.

Some of our worst snowfalls in Leicester have come from breakdown's that turn to rain at the end . If it gives 5-10 cm then there is a good chance a snow cover will be retained for Christmas day . I very much doubt you will have any problems though mate, Have been getting reports of deep snow cover in Stamford and I doubt tonight will melt it all as cold air digs back in behind , with GFS 6z now even suggesting snow on Christmas morning.

[MKN]

Bad news for those in the W Midlands as the 06Z GFS takes much of the precip into E Midlands.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs153.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs183.gif

At the moment looking at the temps/dewpoints it could well start as snow for the E Midlands but probably turning sleety/rain later.

lol nevermind i might just be ok, i think areas with light precip are gonna be far more liely to get rain though so hopefully thats overdone things slightly to far east.

[azores92]

Hasnt it been like that for a few runs now?:lol:

It got the intensity wrong for Saturday night here anyway. It showed just the one for us yet we were having very heavy snow for a time and much of the rest of it was moderate not light. Its all to play for!

also the fact the UKMO meso model shows it going over us(apparently) and NMM shows it hitting our patch.