Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Disappointingly its looks as though I might be miss tomorrow nights potential as im to far E. Still with max temps unlikely to exceed 2-3C from now until Xmas day it looks as though a white xmas is a certainity in Peterborough.

What do you reckon for here? just rain I think Im very low down and I may be too far East

[Nick L]

Disappointingly its looks as though I might be miss tomorrow nights potential as im to far E. Still with max temps unlikely to exceed 2-3C from now until Xmas day it looks as though a white xmas is a certainity in Peterborough.

Well I think with the lack of luck the West Midlands has had so far I think it is fair to say it is our turn for a slice!

I have never seen so little snow last for so long though. We had the lightest of dustings (literally less than 0.5cm) on Saturday night, and apart from road surfaces in the sun it hasn't melted at all.

[Supercell]

Disappointingly its looks as though I might be miss tomorrow nights potential as im to far E. Still with max temps unlikely to exceed 2-3C from now until Xmas day it looks as though a white xmas is a certainity in Peterborough.

To avoid any disappointment here in the midlands i'm going to say that it's a non-starter for snow, unless you're on high ground (200m+).

[we_want_snow]

We had a sugar dusting, literally 1mm and it readily disappeared in the Sunday sun. However, it's still their in places in permenant shade

[Costa Del Fal]

What do you reckon for here? just rain I think Im very low down and I may be too far East

Your hardly very low down. 103m is not high by any means but it could be worse! I dont think you will be too far E either.

[TEITS]

Well I think with the lack of luck the West Midlands has had so far I think it is fair to say it is our turn for a slice!

I have never seen so little snow last for so long though. We had the lightest of dustings (literally less than 0.5cm) on Saturday night, and apart from road surfaces in the sun it hasn't melted at all.

I don't see it as bad luck just a case of your location being unsuitable.

When you consider our spells come from either N/NE/NW,lys/E,lys then with the exception of parts of Leicestershire (from E,lys) and W Midlands (NW,lys, cheshire gap) then much of the midlands escapes. The only time this isn't the case is when you have LP systems running along the S coast because then the Midlands is in prime location.

I will add that there is the subtle suggestion from the models that the perfect snow event could be on the way for the Midlands. Obviously its too early to put detail or be certain about this but the elusive LP system running along the S of the UK is being shown on the GFS/ECM around +192.

As for tomorrow parts of NW Midlands have the best chance at the moment due to being away from the associated warm front.

[Nick L]

I don't see it as bad luck just a case of your location being unsuitable.

When you consider our spells come from either N/NE/NW,lys/E,lys then with the exception of parts of Leicestershire (from E,lys) and W Midlands (NW,lys, cheshire gap) then much of the midlands escapes. The only time this isn't the case is when you have LP systems running along the S coast because then the Midlands is in prime location.

I will add that there is the subtle suggestion from the models that the perfect snow event could be on the way for the Midlands. Obviously its too early to put detail or be certain about this but the elusive LP system running along the S of the UK is being shown on the GFS/ECM around +192.

As for tomorrow parts of NW Midlands have the best chance at the moment due to being away from the associated warm front.

We have had so many near misses though this past week. Showers running a few miles to the north, fronts dying out just before they reach here.

And didn't we have so many "perfect synoptics" on the GFS/ECM for this cold spell at around that range? And in reality there hasn't been THAT much snow, just fairly widespread.

[we_want_snow]

Would you say Shrewsbury is in for a hit of this snow, are we really NW Midlands

[TEITS]

And didn't we have so many "perfect synoptics" on the GFS/ECM for this cold spell at around that range? And in reality there hasn't been THAT much snow, just fairly widespread.

No never perfect, it you want perfection for the Midlands then check 31st Dec 1978.

I disagree about not much snow. Here its snowed every day since Thurs albeit showers at times with 12cm falling on Thurs night/fri which is a decent fall of snow considering the synoptics. If you want to see snowfalls in excess of 20cm then we really need the LP running along the S coast.

[nick sussex]

No never perfect, it you want perfection for the Midlands then check 31st Dec 1978.

I disagree about not much snow. Here its snowed every day since Thurs albeit showers at times with 12cm falling on Thurs night/fri which is a decent fall of snow considering the synoptics. If you want to see snowfalls in excess of 20cm then we really need the LP running along the S coast.

Agree with Dave here, the best scenario is the low tracking along the south with the Midlands on the cold side on the northern flank. It's very difficult for these areas to get huge amounts of snow from a showery set up, especially the west Midlands. In terms of tomorrows possible snow it's still too early to say as the situation is marginal, i have my fingers crossed that these areas can join in on the fun as it must be frustrating to see all this media coverage and wonder what all the fuss is about.

[Fozfoster]

Agree with Dave here, the best scenario is the low tracking along the south with the Midlands on the cold side on the northern flank. It's very difficult for these areas to get huge amounts of snow from a showery set up, especially the west Midlands. In terms of tomorrows possible snow it's still too early to say as the situation is marginal, i have my fingers crossed that these areas can join in on the fun as it must be frustrating to see all this media coverage and wonder what all the fuss is about.

Yes nick it is frustrating, its been so close twice , just one hit thats all i ask.

[Bristawl Si]

Yes nick it is frustrating, its been so close twice , just one hit thats all i ask.

Just watched News24 weather on the Beeb and West Midlands looks favourable for snow tomorrow eve - forecast to hit Bristol area at around teatime and then up to you guys. Ours will turn back to rain, but staying as snow for you.

[Fozfoster]

Just watched News24 weather on the Beeb and West Midlands looks favourable for snow tomorrow eve - forecast to hit Bristol area at around teatime and then up to you guys. Ours will turn back to rain, but staying as snow for you.

If we are all lucky it could stay as snow good luck fella and cheers.

[Nick L]

Agree with Dave here, the best scenario is the low tracking along the south with the Midlands on the cold side on the northern flank. It's very difficult for these areas to get huge amounts of snow from a showery set up, especially the west Midlands. In terms of tomorrows possible snow it's still too early to say as the situation is marginal, i have my fingers crossed that these areas can join in on the fun as it must be frustrating to see all this media coverage and wonder what all the fuss is about.

Frustration isn't a strong enough word, some of us are even beginning to will the return of mild weather just to end the frustration - that's how bad it has got!

[cyclonic happiness]

Frustration isn't a strong enough word, some of us are even beginning to will the return of mild weather just to end the frustration - that's how bad it has got!

I feel your pain, there's nothing here so even if it did get milder things wouldn't look any different....hopefully tomorrow things'll change :winky:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Frustration isn't a strong enough word, some of us are even beginning to will the return of mild weather just to end the frustration - that's how bad it has got!

yes thats what I am thinking, but I do have a wintry look with thick frost, 3 layers maybe, and a slight dusting underneath in some places

[Supercell]

Just had a look at the archived 31st Dec 1978 chart. Woah...that is special. I have never experienced anything like it. The low is perfectly positioned. We have brisk easterly winds. And what a source of cold. Must have been some blizzard.

Edited December 22, 2009 by Supercell

[Bristawl Si]

Just had a look at the archived 31st Dec 1978 chart. Woah...that is special. I have never experienced anything like it. The low is perfectly positioned. We have brisk easterly winds. And what a source of cold. Must have been some blizzard.

Probably the fiercest blizzard i've experienced, even here in BTL there were drifts of 3 feet on the edge of town. For the following week or so daytime temps didn't get above freezing.

Then into January we had another 3 blizzards i think. 78/79 was a major cold and quite snowy one.

[Nick L]

Bizarre differences in temperature from my two weather stations. The one is a simple sensor one, which only measures temperature, it is positioned at the back of the shed which never sees sunlight, it is recording -3.3c.

My main weather station (the one on the website in my sig), is on the front of the shed, it does receive sunlight because it has a solar panel on the front to recharge the batteries. However, it does have a Stephenson screen to protect it from the sun, so it shouldn't be retaining much heat, especially as the sun is very weak - it is recording -1.6c.

Very odd.

Edited December 22, 2009 by nick2702

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bizarre differences in temperature from my two weather stations. The one is a simple sensor one, which only measures temperature, it is positioned at the back of the shed which never sees sunlight, it is recording -3.3c.

My main weather station (the one on the website in my sig), is on the front of the shed, it does receive sunlight because it has a solar panel on the front to recharge the batteries. However, it does have a Stephenson screen to protect it from the sun, so it shouldn't be retaining much heat, especially as the sun is very weak - it is recording -1.6c.

Very odd.

mine saying -1.8C

[Nick L]

mine saying -1.8C

Yeah after looking at temperatures from weather stations in Cannock and Cheslyn Hay it seems as though the -1.6c is nearer the mark.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The BBC has the front starting off as rain and then turning to heavy snow by 3am . Leicester is well in on the heavy snow bracket though .. even hinckley looks good. Let's hope there right. The fact that it is going to be late at night when this arrives in the East Midlands will probably be on our side. This is important for us people from Leicester as tomorrow night is the last possible opportunity to get any Snow cover for Christmas day .

Chris.

[we_want_snow]

I'm being forecast 7.8mm of rain but it's forecasting snow. What depth of cover of snow would this suggest?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=Shrewsbury

And christmas day snow!!! I doubt it

[alexwwfc]

Yeah after looking at temperatures from weather stations in Cannock and Cheslyn Hay it seems as though the -1.6c is nearer the mark.

we live fairly close do u reckon we have a god chance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

metcheck give me sleet and -1C for wed night, dry xmas eve, cold Xmas day