Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

we live fairly close do u reckon we have a god chance

Well it's the best chance we have had all week, if it comes off we could get a lot of snow. If it doesn't then there will be a lot of rain. There is a very fine line between the two though.

[we_want_snow]

Well, who do you believe

BBC or null. BBC are saying heavier snow in the east midlands, whereas..... http://null.co.uk/

[drgl]

I'm being forecast 7.8mm of rain but it's forecasting snow. What depth of cover of snow would this suggest?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=Shrewsbury

And christmas day snow!!! I doubt it

That site has been "forcasting" snow for me for over a week now, even when that site claimed we should be snowed under the sun was shining. Ignore.

ps, when i checked it earlier the graphics showed snow Christmas eve from 6pm until the early hours, it's changed again already(now no snow but snow Christmas day!).

[dogs32]

I'm being forecast 7.8mm of rain but it's forecasting snow. What depth of cover of snow would this suggest?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=Shrewsbury

And christmas day snow!!! I doubt it

ten inches of snow is equivalent to one inch of rain.

Light and loose snow takes more than 10 inches to make an inch of water but dense and slushy snow takes less.Since precipitation is generally measured in inches of liquid water and not in snowfall amounts, snow is usually converted into inches of water by dividing by 10.

[Nick L]

That site has been "forcasting" snow for me for over a week now, even when that site claimed we should be snowed under the sun was shining. Ignore.

ps, when i checked it earlier the graphics showed snow Christmas eve from 6pm until the early hours, it's changed again already(now no snow but snow Christmas day!).

Metcheck is a poor website. I would trust the posts on this forum far more than the Metcheck forecasts.

[we_want_snow]

Bit confusing, how much would that give me?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Metcheck is a poor website. I would trust the posts on this forum far more than the Metcheck forecasts.

dunno about metcheck, been right at short range, from around tuesday upto sunday, they said Sunday would be bone dry and it was, they also kept saying light sleet for 1 hour sat night

Edited December 22, 2009 by mark forster 630

[conor123]

The 18z has the front moving in a tad later with temperatures of 0c/1c generally when it hits though the heaviest looks like staying east AND west of us.

Edited December 22, 2009 by conor123

[dogs32]

Bit confusing, how much would that give me?

Generally, 1 cm of rain (10mm) is equal to 10 cm of snow (100mm) because snow takes up about 10x the amount of space that rain does

[TEITS]

Probably the fiercest blizzard i've experienced, even here in BTL there were drifts of 3 feet on the edge of town. For the following week or so daytime temps didn't get above freezing.

Then into January we had another 3 blizzards i think. 78/79 was a major cold and quite snowy one.

Only one word sums up the blizzards of 78/79 and thats EVIL.

Never forget the day I attempted to go to school and unfortunately the school was closed. The reason for this was due to the snow drifts being 6ft high blocking access into the main entrance.

Our snowfalls of recent days probably wouldn't of even got a mention in the media back in the good ol days!

[Nick L]

Warm sector is slightly further south for tomorrow night on the 18z, not much but every mile helps:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091222;time=18;ext=27;file=tmp850;sess=01425d61256213ba588519c027c96547;

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Warm sector is slightly further south for tomorrow night on the 18z, not much but every mile helps:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091222;time=18;ext=27;file=tmp850;sess=01425d61256213ba588519c027c96547;

still seems a bit marginal, ppn seems further north west not too good

Edited December 22, 2009 by mark forster 630

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Warm sector is slightly further south for tomorrow night on the 18z, not much but every mile helps:

http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091222;time=18;ext=27;file=tmp850;sess=01425d61256213ba588519c027c96547;

Is that a NW extra chart?

[Nick L]

Is that a NW extra chart?

Yeah, thoroughly recommend getting the Lite subscription.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Yeah, thoroughly recommend getting the Lite subscription.

Cool

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Xmas day seems to be upgrading every run, a bit off yet but hope trend continues

[we_want_snow]

Looking ahead of this, it's looking like it could potentially stay cold towards the new year. What is happening on 28/29th at the moment. I appreciate its a very long way off but what are they showing?

Can someone show me the xmas day upgrades

[Downpour]

Agree with Dave here, the best scenario is the low tracking along the south with the Midlands on the cold side on the northern flank. It's very difficult for these areas to get huge amounts of snow from a showery set up, especially the west Midlands. In terms of tomorrows possible snow it's still too early to say as the situation is marginal, i have my fingers crossed that these areas can join in on the fun as it must be frustrating to see all this media coverage and wonder what all the fuss is about.

I'll second that. It's been a laugh in London and we've only had two modest doses. hope you guys score, particularly as I'm heading to Leicestershire for christmas

[Nick L]

Tomorrow night looks a real puzzler, dewpoints are very marginal but I don't see how any warm sector can get ahead of the PPN, however the METO seem to make less of the PPN than the GFS does and showery/patchy PPN tilts it towards sleet. If it has turned to snow over mid-Wales - always my benchmark in the 80s - then the West Midlands could finally be in business snow wise, at least for a time.

This will be one of those "down to the wire" events. Really will be a nail biter, and we probably won't really know what it will be until we see what's falling outside our windows.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 18z has moved the Snow line about 100 miles further North for Tomorrow night , this would mean the Midlands would miss out altogether.

[Nick L]

The 18z has moved the Snow line about 100 miles further North for Tomorrow night , this would mean the Midlands would miss out altogether.

I like the look of that, the northern half of the west Midlands should get something.

[Costa Del Fal]

The 18z is a bit better for us imo-it brings things a bit further South e.g Better dewpoints.

Edited December 22, 2009 by Blizzards

[snowmadchrisuk]

I like the look of that, the northern half of the west Midlands should get something.

Hopefully , the 12z brought the PPN in quicker , meaning it beat the mild sector so was looking good for the East mids. I hope we get something but it is very hard to judge as it is going to be based on cold at the surface as the Midlands and further south doesn't really have upper level support. Where Northern England retains the 528 dam line and -5 uppers.

[Costa Del Fal]

Hopefully , the 12z brought the PPN in quicker , meaning it beat the mild sector so was looking good for the East mids. I hope we get something but it is very hard to judge as it is going to be based on cold at the surface as the Midlands and further south doesn't really have upper level support. Where Northern England retains the 528 dam line and -5 uppers.

If the GFS was right people were having snow from -3/-4 uppers yesterday.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Big downgrade for the 28th/29th with the milder air moving much further North +5 850's into London and 546 damline. The mild air was always so close I expected it though .