Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[saint]

Sorry to intrude!:lol:

But here in St. Albans (Herts) we had snow at -1c Dp last night and one point got to -0.9c where it snowed, also had snow on Satuday night around -1.5c.

Note that these temps were from a local weather station but other sround the area did have similar DP's

We do have a bit of altitude here though, but you may do well out of it!

[TEITS]

Big downgrade for the 28th/29th with the milder air moving much further North +5 850's into London and 546 damline. The mild air was always so close I expected it though .

Your looking too much into the detail. Now synoptically speaking the 18Z is a stunner at +144.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Lol foget that last post ... the next chart has sent the cold air flooding South again ... Oh god what a roller coaster.

[Supercell]

Sorry to intrude!

But here in St. Albans (Herts) we had snow at -1c Dp last night and one point got to -0.9c where it snowed, also had snow on Satuday night around -1.5c.

Note that these temps were from a local weather station but other sround the area did have similar DP's

We do have a bit of altitude here though, but you may do well out of it!

The problem is that the majority of the midlands will be observing positive dew points by the time the ppn arrives. Certainly isn't indicative of any settling snow.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes, if you have to these systems running into cold air -3 and sometimes -2 can support snowfall. We need the PPN to be intense enough.

It does seem the PPN could be quite heavy as well. It certainly doesnt look patchy or light in general anyway!

[Nick L]

Yes, if you have to these systems running into cold air -3 and sometimes -2 can support snowfall. We need the PPN to be intense enough.

It does look pretty heavy to be fair, deep blues/greens appearing on the GFS. The precipitation wasn't actually that heavy on the Met Office radar, was green/yellow most of the time. Wasn't much heavy stuff left in there once it penetrated inland.

I am not getting too optimistic though, with the frustration we have had the past week I can only see it continuing.

[Summer of 95]

Clutching at straws a bit, but the forecast the night before this was unpromising (rain preceded by sleet or snow IIRC), we were just on the wrong side of the -5 line; I went to bed not expecting much and woke up to 5 inches of snow, most of which was still there the next day despite it being mid-March:

While this so-called cold snap gave 3 brief 1-2cm dustings, none of which lasted past noon

We were on the -10 line and had 1cm at 9am that had gone by 11!

[PolarWarsaw]

Well things tell me that tommorow shall be very marginal and 8's/10 for Rugeley that means rain or sleet at best. Cannock and etc all areas around are on higher land, thoose areas always get snow when we have rain, not only are we in a valley i live half a mile away from the power station, which has another affect onto pro-ceedings as well. Expecting rain here tommorow.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The problem is that the majority of the midlands will be observing positive dew points by the time the ppn arrives. Certainly isn't indicative of any settling snow.

Wet bulb temps tomorrow night are also 1-4 deg and they really need to be below freezing . We have 850's around -2 , due points about +2 , Wetbulb temp 1-4 deg . Damline well into the 530's . To me all this says is alot of places in the Midlands could be seing plain old rain . When you look to what you need for snow , in the midlands non of the conditions are satisfied.

[Nick L]

Well things tell me that tommorow shall be very marginal and 8's/10 for Rugeley that means rain or sleet at best. Cannock and etc all areas around are on higher land, thoose areas always get snow when we have rain, not only are we in a valley i live half a mile away from the power station, which has another affect onto pro-ceedings as well. Expecting rain here tommorow.

Altitude will have a massive difference tomorrow night. Places like Pye Green which are more than 200m up will be at an advantage, Cannock Chase could be a very festive scene as well. Cannock itself isn't exactly on low ground. Either way, if I miss out I can always go up the road!

[Costa Del Fal]

BBC 22:35 Forecast had updated maps and still showed snow in this area but some rain/sleet wasnt far away.

[PolarWarsaw]

Altitude will have a massive difference tomorrow night. Places like Pye Green which are more than 200m up will be at an advantage, Cannock Chase could be a very festive scene as well. Cannock itself isn't exactly on low ground. Either way, if I miss out I can always go up the road!

Lucky you no doubt you'll get absolutely pasted and it'll be sleet turning to rain here. SODS LAW.COM

[Nick L]

Lucky you no doubt you'll get absolutely pasted and it'll be sleet turning to rain here. SODS LAW.COM

If I get enough I will shovel some to Rugeley!

[conor123]

The Lawley area of Telford i live in is all between 150-180 meters above sea level which should help a bit though i could always head up the wrekin which is 400 meters above sea level Christmas Eve if its the wrong side of borderline here.

[Costa Del Fal]

If we do have snow tomorrow it should have no problem sticking as most of Saturday nights snow is still on the ground.

[Nick L]

The Lawley area of Telford i live in is all between 150-180 meters above sea level which should help a bit though i could always head up the wrekin which is 400 meters above sea level Christmas Eve if its the wrong side of borderline here.

You can always guarantee snow on top of the Wrekin in marginal events!

[PolarWarsaw]

If I get enough I will shovel some to Rugeley!

Much obliged pal - im getting desperate!. I think we're about hmm 85 ASL here so nothing to write home about, although i suppose it could be 8.5M's.

[Supercell]

I can't see it snowing. I hope I am wrong, but experience over the years of similar set-ups tells me this is on the wrong side of marginal. As it stands, things are unfavourable.

I can see a fair bit of disappointment emerging across the forum come tomorrow night. I think we need to look at this as a possibility with a small chance of coming off.

[Summer of 95]

The Lawley area of Telford i live in is all between 150-180 meters above sea level which should help a bit though i could always head up the wrekin which is 400 meters above sea level Christmas Eve if its the wrong side of borderline here.

There doesn't seem to have been any snow whatsoever on the Wrekin yet in this "cold snap"; admittedly 1cm dustings on top are hard to spot from here but it's looked green and brown throughout. The Long Mynd and Stiperstones appear to have a light covering, but the Long Mountain doesn't. Haven't been able to see the Berwyns or Clees from Shrewsbury recently- they've been obscured by the clouds that keep covering the S, N and W horizons.

[ISAAC]

I have noticed in every marginal event so far we have seen snow falling here in stoke although we are higher up so does give an advantage...

Also remember the band will be hitting cold air that has been there for quite a while and with the warm sector being further south it shudn't affect the chances of snow too much. BUT what we need is low dew points and high precipitation amounts if we want anything to settle otherwise it's all game over for us.

Edited December 22, 2009 by ISAAC

[Nick L]

Is there a possibility of a freezing rain event? With frozen surface and probably cold surface temperatures it could turn into quite a nasty situation.

[Supercell]

Is there a possibility of a freezing rain event? With frozen surface and probably cold surface temperatures it could turn into quite a nasty situation.

I don't think so. It seems that temperatures will be above freezing by the time the PPN arrives. The midlands today forecast earlier was a load of rubbish.

[PolarWarsaw]

I don't think so. It seems that temperatures will be above freezing by the time the PPN arrives. The midlands today forecast earlier was a load of rubbish.

Too right it was but at least the foreacst went into the evening this time, i dont understand why the snow risk would re-ceed as it got further north, if anything the opposite effect should take place.

[davehsug]

I have noticed in every marginal event so far we have seen snow falling here in stoke although we are higher up so does give an advantage...

Also remember the band will be hitting cold air that has been there for quite a while and with the warm sector being further south it shudn't affect the chances of snow too much. BUT what we need is low dew points and high precipitation amounts if we want anything to settle otherwise it's all game over for us.

Really? Saturday evening didn't even look that marginal to me, but we still managed snow turning to sleet then rain in Hanley!

Anyhoo, been a very painful afternoon here in Stoke. Those showers were so close to the north & there were even a few impressive anvils, but not to be. Still, we're hanging onto our 0.5cm covering out of the sun

[dvdfjojo]

I don't think so. It seems that temperatures will be above freezing by the time the PPN arrives. The midlands today forecast earlier was a load of rubbish.

I've still got the reminas of that 10 minute 'blizzard' last Thursday lunchtime on my garden and skating rink paving slabs - do you reckon that'll melt before the precipation hits? I've been forecast to go above freezing several times over the last few days but it's not melted yet. Unless it gets warm fast, I can't imagine rain hitting that and doing anything but freezing at the moment. Could it be dangerous on Christmas Eve if so?