Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowmadsam]

if an area of low pressure formed towards western wales what would it mean?

[soupsurfer7]

The band in north wales seems to be taking it's time when is it gna move south?

[kold weather]

Yep another small low has formed over W.Wales, was a mid level circulation but its developed quite strongly down to the surface.

Main synoptic set-up remains unchanged with the main low forming further inland with pressures down to 1000mbs.

So its not a change to the forecast...but lets call it a brucie bouns BUT the evolution remains unchanged, the main low is if anything going to be further EAST becuase of this low forming.

[Arron]

The band in north wales seems to be taking it's time when is it gna move south?

Tell me about it!

[Jayfromcardiff]

whats happening tonight then please im a bit confused?

BBC saying snow SE wales, but it doesn't look much lol. METO warnings for Newport.

[benb]

Yep another small low has formed over W.Wales, was a mid level circulation but its developed quite strongly down to the surface.

Main synoptic set-up remains unchanged with the main low forming further inland with pressures down to 1000mbs.

So its not a change to the forecast...but lets call it a brucie bouns BUT the evolution remains unchanged, the main low is if anything going to be further EAST becuase of this low forming.

Cheers for the clarification!

[andymusic]

Tell me about it!

Overnight tonight for south wales apparently Derek says on the BBC

A very complex set up though - could still be a few surprises

[soupsurfer7]

Tell me about it!

wow you're at talybont, I went to school there lol

[Bobby]

Just flicking through the GFS ensembles and the amount of uncertainty at this distance is still huge. Quite a few ensembles have the main snow area over Wales and SW England. A crumb of comfort. This isn't nearly as certain as the Met Office are making it out to be I don't think.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Barb-

[willitbsunny]

I'm a novice but the band that is curling around on itself way out west looks set to pretty much miss south east wales tonight - its moving to far south - maddening! Its like we have a snow shield round us here - missing it from all angles

[whiskers]

Just flicking through the GFS ensembles and the amount of uncertainty at this distance is still huge. Quite a few ensembles have the main snow area over Wales and SW England. A crumb of comfort. This isn't nearly as certain as the Met Office are making it out to be I don't think.

or are we clutching at straws just hoping for that one snowfall - well i know i am!

[Marcus_surfer]

I'm a novice but the band that is curling around on itself way out west looks set to pretty much miss south east wales tonight - its moving to far south - maddening! Its like we have a snow shield round us here - missing it from all angles

Yeah it's moving out into the Sea, will miss Swansea

[CLH the red dragon]

Clutching at straws mate. No snow in South Wales, trust me. Whatever you got this morning is the extent of it.

S West Wales is in the South. Have a look at the model thread.

[Blackjack]

I have this horrible feeling that the snow is going to be dragged too far East even for me in Abergavenny

[impster]

That wedge from North Wales looks on course for me surely unless the hills are gonna stop it?

I hope so too! Desperate to show my daughter how to make a snowman!

[Icequeen]

What is this newly formed low gonna do? Hope it means megga snow

[Herefordweather]

Snowing in Hereford again Blackjack.

[A-Dizzle]

I really don't know whats gonna happen tonight now, i'm still hoping tho.

[dingdong]

so close on the 12 NAE

do not rule out widespread 5-10cm of snow in south wales just yet

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201001051200&VAR=prty&HH=12&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201001051200&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

A very slight shift to the west (very slight) Still all to play for imo

DD

[soupsurfer7]

Will the snow in north wales deteriorate into nothing soon?

[Bobby]

Maybe clutching a straws but this is what a lot of ensembles show:

Not saying it's going to be happen but there are surprises and dissapointments on the way for sure with this much uncertainty.

[Blackjack]

Snowing in Hereford again Blackjack.

I think I'm just to far SE of the Black Mountains to get much. Hereford doesn't get the shelter.

Damn it. I just ain't gonna get it looking at the maps

[andymusic]

Will the snow in north wales deteriorate into nothing soon?

Nope - low is gonna move south - pembs is gonna get it now - the north wales snow is gonna move south and pep up in the south/south east wales over night tonight into tomorrow morning!

latest 12z GFS will start to come out shortly and update us on the next 24 hours!

Edited January 5, 2010 by andymusic

[dingdong]

Not saying it's going to be happen but there are surprises and dissapointments on the way for sure with this much uncertainty.

Barb, i have a feeling this will be progged slightly further west as the secondary low links up with the main low somewhere near the Bristol Channel (not as far west as was suggested yesterday)

This theory has some support from the latest NAE and will be interesting to see what other models think as they coe out

[The Weather Dragon]

Heavy Snow for the past hour in pembrokeshire (see radar)