East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Amanzi]

The very latest from the NAE model brings the heaviest snow towards London especially Surrey and the sw London area at around midnight. The snow then slowly sinks se wards with snow across the se for much of the day.

Thanks for the update! Sounding good for me tonight. I don't think I will even bother with Prozac, I think good 'ol Valium and a tot of the Hard will do me!

[thegreat316]

fwiw new ppcn

[simon65]

nothing at all here in Milton Keynes...suspect we are about to miss out again:)

give it a chance ,im sure it will turn up and better then expected ,i hope

[Paul Sherman]

Aha - Finally I can now see what is going to happen tonight

Took me blinkin long enough to work that out - Bad day at the office!

[SMU]

New text forecast from the Met (Issued 14:29Z)

WEDNESDAY:

LOW PRESSURE CENTED NEAR SOUTHAMPTON AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY MOVE SSE

DURING THE DAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND OCCLUSION. THIS WILL

GIVE PERSISTENT SN, LOC HVY WITH ISOL EMBD TS/CB, ACROSS MUCH OF S

ENGLAND. THE SN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE SE DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT/BKN ST, BKN CUSC AND BKN/OVC ACAS IN

ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL ZONE. WIND N-NE LIGHT TO MOD, OCNL STRONG

IN N AND W OF FRONTAL ZONE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UK, A VERY COLD AND UNSTABLE MOD TO STRONG NE

FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL GIVE OCNL SHSN AND ISOL HVY SHSN/TSSN,

MAINLY IN N AND E. OCNL SCT/BKN CUSC AND ISOL CB. WIND NE LIGHT TO

MOD, OCNL STRONG COT SEA.

Still looking good

Yep & based on this & the hook appearence of the shower train I am surprised that estimates of 40Cm's are still being pushed out-

Notice that text doesnt include any more shallow features in the information-

the VERY heavy PPN is in the channel & wrapping back SE-

If the alleged 40cm is going to come then its gone have to develop off one of the shower trains alreay in the flow- I cant see how that sort of feature is just going to develop a PPN band out of nowhere-

Looking in at the hook in the Channels its ever so slowly moving NE- if thats whats going to deliver the 40cm of snow its WAY out of kilter with the NAE from yesterday..... more central southern & SE oparts

I might be wrong- but things need to start happening in the next hour or two on the radar otherwise you may as well shave the zero off them totals...

S

Edited January 5, 2010 by Steve Murr

[snowfish]

That is awesome news!! , push it a little further east and it's game on :lol: :lol:

Do you think North kent will still do well out of this?

[bbtablet]

Nowcasting is basically "very short-range forecasting", read the below..

http://www.metoffice...nowcasting.html

Many thanks Gornaldo.

[Derp Patrol]

Am I right that the NAE chart posted only shows accumulations up to tomorrow lunchtime? could be even more

[nick sussex]

Does this mean Nick that NW London /South west Herts border has an increased chance than earlier.

Thanks

Yes for the moment but to be honest i don't want to say too much as there has been so many changes that whose to know what will happen, the heaviest precip arcs around the low, somewhere lucky or unlucky as the case maybe is liable to see some huge snow totals. Again though the low hasn't even properly formed yet so i'd still be cautious for the timebeing.

Edited January 5, 2010 by nick sussex

[Mikel Nimbus]

Well we have just had a few light flurries here in North London/Herts. The sky looks very unstable with different cloud forms at many levels.

[kold weather]

kw - excellent and well done (and thanks) for spotting this and keeping us up to date.

Gotta admit this is now close to excedding what I was expecting last night where I though 5-7cms was probable...still its good to see the little trick I've learned where things tend to get adjusted eastwards looks like its going to come off this time as well...

That 12z NAE is VERY close to what the 06z GFs was progging so will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS does, though as this stage it doesn't really matter...

[winter watcher]

Just got home from work yes i know i do start early 5am lol I feel very confident about tonight being south west off London had a fax through from the met office i work for the trains and they said up to 30cm's can be expected across the west off London possibly even more. They also said the threat remains after for very heavy and even prolonged snow to affect this region until Sunday 06:00 hrs where a further fax will be sent.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Derp Patrol]

Good news with the GFS as well! London could get battered tonight, don't rule out 20cm+ !!

http://209.197.11.165/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/09/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a2440ae5a74916b512b40ae5a42&dopsig=49a4ea8f5d12c96d7a237432b0d74789

http://209.197.11.178/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/12/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a3140ae5a61916b512a40ae5a5c&dopsig=55e1659ca0e39ccba0c760a03f04d077

http://209.197.11.168/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/15/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a0340ae5a53916b511840ae5a74&dopsig=503db173abf8b85c5aea5ef6b93e6b5f

[Neilsouth]

Gotta admit this is now close to excedding what I was expecting last night where I though 5-7cms was probable...still its good to see the little trick I've learned where things tend to get adjusted eastwards looks like its going to come off this time as well....

Just amazing that Nowcasting and all the sources we have are better than the forecasts given out by the bbc. For example if you'd watched the latest forecast you would not have known about this update

[kold weather]

Front stalls over Kent on this run between 36-42hrs....totals pushing upto 15cms in E.Kent on this run, its quite possible as the models have been hinting at a very slack upper flow and so its quite possible the front will stall before it clears into the Channel...probably still light snowfall even into S.Essex Thursday morning but heavier stuff focused over Kent for nThursday morning.

[Derp Patrol]

More GFS PPN charts for tomorrow morning:

http://209.197.11.169/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/18/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe59a340ae59f3916b52b840ae59d5&dopsig=4f5ef37f067e5045038a62e6ba478ae6

http://209.197.21.118/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/21/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe598e40ae59de916b528140ae590b&dopsig=9ab8b11c3de989abcbab62e235f853fb

[Paul Sherman]

Going to now go with the M3 Corridoor being the Sweet Spot, maybe plump for Basingstoke to get Mullered Overnight, SW London looks primed as does South London down towards the South Downs around the M25

Paul S

[slb97]

Hi all,

Raining heavily in Portsmouth; glad I didn't get extra bread and milk after all!

[icy toes]

I know most of the action looks to be in the south-east later, but can anyone update what might happen across East Anglia? Will that low affect any part of the East Anglian region later?

[Mikel Nimbus]

Crikey!!!!! Latest 12z ppn

[Upgrade]

Good news with the GFS as well! London could get battered tonight, don't rule out 20cm+ !!

http://209.197.11.165/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/09/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a2440ae5a74916b512b40ae5a42&dopsig=49a4ea8f5d12c96d7a237432b0d74789

http://209.197.11.178/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/12/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a3140ae5a61916b512a40ae5a5c&dopsig=55e1659ca0e39ccba0c760a03f04d077

http://209.197.11.168/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100105/12/15/ukprec.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbd07ed40fe5a0340ae5a53916b511840ae5a74&dopsig=503db173abf8b85c5aea5ef6b93e6b5f

as Steve says, i would caution that some may be getting carried away with totals . Central London has only seen 20cm+ once since 1963 - in 1991. a 20 cm fall in the capital would be a once in a generation event. and i think , sadly it is unlikely . my guess is 2-5 cm in london

Edited January 5, 2010 by jimmyay

[Timmytour]

I don't remember ever being too far north for snow before

Used to happen quite a bit when we'd miss out on the fronts trying to push up from the south against a cold air mass.

Had close misses due to being too far north/south/east/west or just too low here! I get kinda used to it and curb my enthusiasm accordingly when faced with potential... much as I love to let loose and ramp it up. Unfortunately even with my enthusiasm curbed, my kids already go "yeah yeah dad, whatever!" when I tell them there's a possibility they might wake up to snow... the potential has failed to fulfill so many times!

I'm still crossing my fingers though....

[thegreat316]

latest gfs

wow

im going syock up on batties

[Neilsouth]

Hi all,

Raining heavily in Portsmouth; glad I didn't get extra bread and milk after all!

That was always expected , especially with the milder sector... However that shrinks as the evening progresses

[hobbielancie]

Any news on how Norfolk will fare Tonight/Tomorrow please?