East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Some interesting developments that may alter the situation a little once again...

Low pressure at mid levels over West Wales has dug down to the surface with pressures of 1001mbs, sinking southwards. Main low is still forming further east over the Midlands BUT this low that has formed further west which could well shunt the whole lot a little further east.

So this is becoming an even more complicated set-up!

[Neilsouth]

15 Jan?

In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for london in the past 10,000 years. Though due to Global Warming this wont happen again and expect long hot winters That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

:lol:

Edited January 5, 2010 by neilsouth

[Jan_Bromley]

Yep

They are keeping all the snow for themselves - Damn Aunty :lol:

lol Paul. It's stopped now

[Snowangel-MK]

we also have frost on paths and grass here in leighton buzzard, south beds!!! waiting to see if tonight brings anything!!!!

Slow moving cloud coming in here from the W / SW so hopefully our region will ge lucky later this evening !

[Upgrade]

Paul--- can you give me a quick message reply on here as to the realistic expectation for my zone this eve- Ive got people ringing me at work & asking to go home early-

I cant get some model stuff at work- but radar looks at though iots quiet for a while to come....

is the SE still on for tomorrow-????

S

its ridiculous how panicky people get. surely there'll be no more than 10 cm, really?

[Paul Sherman]

Paul--- can you give me a quick message reply on here as to the realistic expectation for my zone this eve- Ive got people ringing me at work & asking to go home early-

I cant get some model stuff at work- but radar looks at though iots quiet for a while to come....

is the SE still on for tomorrow-????

S

Hi Steve

They dont need to go home early today, although I would expect most of them not to get in or bother to get in tomorrow, think the London area should start seeing Snow from around 8pm tonight towards the West of our region.

Cheers

Paul S

[Upgrade]

Hi Steve

They dont need to go home early today, although I would expect most of them not to get in or bother to get in tomorrow, think the London area should start seeing Snow from around 8pm tonight towards the West of our region.

Cheers

Paul S

Hi Paul, i know its the million dollar question but how much do you think we could see overnight in London ?thanks

Edited January 5, 2010 by jimmyay

[Neilsouth]

Look at all that snow in the channel! , atleast when the winds do shift there will be alot of snow across the low countries

[Optimus Prime]

No we don't .... what happened

Way before my time !

Refer to my previous post...

Still cloudy here and very cold. Murky orangy sky.

[meltz!]

Slow moving cloud coming in here from the W / SW so hopefully our region will ge lucky later this evening !

hope so snow angel ive got the boys to excited for it not to happen!!!!

[Guest FireStorm]

As JH said on the other thread, almost certainly a now-casting scenario

Exactly as I said a moment ago myself - I find there is alot of activity now begining to appear almost out of the blue. Pretty exciting stuff from a nowcast POV

[simon65]

i dont know abou you people but im gonna get me a dog and go hide in the libarary and burn books

Current data for Linslade

05 January 2010 14:52:32

Temperature (°C):

Current 0.4

Trend (per hour) -0.2

Average today -2.1

Wind chill 0.4

Humidex -2.3

Dew Point -2.1

Rel Humidity 83%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 1.6 NW

Average Speed 0.0 ENE

Pressure (mb):

Current 1000.9

Trend (per hour) -0.5

[VillagePlank]

Exactly as I said a moment ago myself - I find there is alot of activity now begining to appear almost out of the blue. Pretty exciting stuff from a nowcast POV

Yep - still very interested in the 12z mode, though - since GFS seems to have a data issue, and the 12z observational ascents will be crucial. if I get time, later, I'll post up what I dig out - and make erroneous conclusions, too, of course

Edited January 5, 2010 by VillagePlank

[SMU]

Hi Steve

They dont need to go home early today, although I would expect most of them not to get in or bother to get in tomorrow, think the London area should start seeing Snow from around 8pm tonight towards the West of our region.

Cheers

Paul S

Cheers--- apart from tonight I was expecting convection from the NE to start developing tomorrow-

Steve

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul, i know its the million dollar question but how much do you think we could see overnight in London ?thanks

Hi Jimmy

I think like Kold says we need and have the luxury of the last set of Models for this b4 nailing down some depths etc

GFS Comes out in 35 Mins

NAE A little later with UKMO & ECMWF Around 6-7pm so I think we have the luxury of seeing all 4 outputs and then saying what and where will get most snow from this.

Sorry to be vague but it is an ever changing situation

Paul S

[Derp Patrol]

Im going to wait for the 12Z charts now, but right now I would say 10cm widely is certainly very possible in this region, and it would only take a slight shift eastwards and we would be in the bullseye - also of interest, Ian on the SW thread is saying how the models are underestimating the ppn, so there could be a lot more than has been forecasted!

[kold weather]

Yep the small low that has formed over W.Wales wasn't picked up by any models, thus this will have to have some sort of impact on what happens, in theory it could mean a slight eastward adjustment is needed to the main bullseye zone however I want to wait another hour or two to see what the 12z suite does before getting more interested....

[jackie]

just seen the N24 forecast and tbh i wouldnt wanna be living in woking ! had a 30cm warning sign slapped over it. - The snow looks to be encroaching through to east kent by midnight tonight and looks to continue mostly thru the night and tomorrow !....Snow showers Thursday for the SE then the Easterly winds kick in for the foreseeable !

Time to dig out the candles again and get prepared ! best to be safe than sorry.

[Paul Sherman]

Cheers--- apart from tonight I was expecting convection from the NE to start developing tomorrow-

Steve

Looking like that will happen later on Tomorrow Night or early doors Thursday due to the merging of the snow bands and the fizzling out later wednesday, flow turns hard NE At Thurs 00z by the looks of things once the front clears off southwards

Paul S

[Snowcold]

Norfolk County Council, have just let their farmers with council ploughs (of which we are one) to be prepared from tomorrow. Usually this is the kiss of death for any snow, but cant understand why now, when 24hrs ago the forecast for the area was far worse than the current forecast, despite it obviously now having changed from what they predicted. Oh and we're mid way along the norfolk suffolk border.

[Neilsouth]

Just to note...

I've kept all Fax runs from yesterday and i'm going to compare them to the 18Z of today

[Upgrade]

Thanks Paul S

James

[Country Boy]

Whats the fuss..Hardly any clouds here, and its +1c at the moment. And the radar shows very little snow/rain around. I think we all have to wait till tomorows north easterly wind..First it was Monday then Tuesday and now Wednesday...getting fed up now, its all slow moving..

[Guest FireStorm]

just seen the N24 forecast and tbh i wouldnt wanna be living in woking ! had a 30cm warning sign slapped over it. - The snow looks to be encroaching through to east kent by midnight tonight and looks to continue mostly thru the night and tomorrow !....Snow showers Thursday for the SE then the Easterly winds kick in for the foreseeable !

Time to dig out the candles again and get prepared ! best to be safe than sorry.

Along with everyone who receives snow over the next few days - stay safe. Cliffe is more village like if I remember the area correctly?

*note to self.. hire a monster truck to get through snow*

[Archie_Lewis]

I really do not understand the panic.

Its all a nowcast situation.

Take the Feb 09 snowfall for instance:

There was a 'TAKE ACTION' warning for Essex London areas to the south of London and into Berkshire.

The BBC weather graphics had snow all over this region with HERTFORDSHIRE and home counties only showing a snowflake or two.

I thought to myself on that Sunday evening... ''DAMN IT''... Im just going to miss this.

Guess what? I woke to 7 inches of snow.

Its all about nowcasting. To be frank PPN will show up just about anywhere.

Although I have to say... Hampshire looks like being under a foot of snow come tomorrow PM. Something the residents down there are not use to. I just hope they are prepared