East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Hammer]

Edit,much heavier now, nothing on radar though :lol:

Certainly on the radar in the past few minutes some showers are popping up near London which would coincide with the poster who said it was snowing in Bromley.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Hammer

[Optimus Prime]

Not too far away from how it all started :lol: :lol:

Paul what's even more interesting is that many parts of the Mediterranean have had thie wettest spell of weather since 1940 due to the southerly tracking jet.

Well all know what happened in 1940...

[kold weather]

Yep

I know Cet temps are done on a monthly basis, but I wonder what the CET For 17th Dec to 17th January will come out at? And the Snow lying at 9am in that same period could come close to being nearly in the Top 10 as well.

Essex has only had 2 Days where the temps have risen above 5.8c since 16th December, and those unluckily were Dec 25th and Dec 26th LOL

Probably very close to 0C I'd imagine, the 20 day mean is about 0.4C right now and we have to get rid of the very mild days from the 30 day mean, keep an eye on the Jan CET thread though because I'm keeping it updated on stuff like that...

Also this set-up does remind me of Dece 62 I have to be honest, the set-up looks a little further west then that but if anything we'be seen upgrades today for our location, I'm feeling confident of at least an inch or two here in S.essex.

[Upgrade]

Beeb forecast shows very nicely what could happen, the frist front gets swung up from the south and eventually reahces its northern limit, then gets pulled back southwards along with the second more northerly front...thats why I was saying 5-7cms for Kent+Essex but if anything the models have slightly upgraded that risk...

Real good hints now of the circulation forming over the West Midlands, the Mid level circulation over Wales still heading southwards but probably weaken, if it doesn't then it'll add another level of complexity to the forecast, as if its needed!

How much do you think we could see in Central London? It seems that the forecasts are quite deliberatly hedging their bets with London on the boundary of 2-5. 10 cm or even poissibly more!

Edited January 5, 2010 by jimmyay

[pureasthedriven]

First few flakes here in Bromley now

Which is a little quirk in itself, given that Bromley is SE London/NW Kent borders and here I am currently dry in SW London. Not griping, just highlighting the fluid nature of all this, with a nod also to the Essex poster above who has snow from the sky but no radar imagery!

Edited January 5, 2010 by pureasthedriven

[Paul Sherman]

That's done it Paul!!!!!

:lol: :lol: It is almost the same Synoptics though, if you read what happened on those days and look at the Synoptic charts on that site it is uncanny, I wonder wether a few weather geezers sat around moaning at the charts at the time :lol:

[fujita5]

Few flakes in Brentwood, again nothing on radar. Gonna be an exciting few hours, waiting for the precip to develop....

[Memphis snow]

Agreed , though on the point of detailed forecast... A local detailed forecast and NOT kaddy would do me :lol:

I enjoy kaddy"s forecast when it's +7 & raining!!!!!!

[DAVID SNOW]

Paul what's even more interesting is that many parts of the Mediterranean have had thie wettest spell of weather since 1940 due to the southerly tracking jet.

Well all know what happened in 1940...

The blitz? :lol:

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

Paul what's even more interesting is that many parts of the Mediterranean have had thie wettest spell of weather since 1940 due to the southerly tracking jet.

Well all know what happened in 1940...

Exactly.

[Jezzer]

From Ian Ferguson on the South West thread:

"In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for much of central southern England in the past 30 years. That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

Blimey!!

[Hammer]

Certainly seems like a little activity popping up in past 20 or so minutes with some reports of light showers in places like Bromley, Brentwood, Chigwell.

[Upgrade]

From Ian Ferguson on the South West thread:

"In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for much of central southern England in the past 30 years. That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

Blimey!!

lol and it hasnt even started snowing yet in central or southern england. ramp alert!

seriously though, it shows more than anything how little snow there's been since Feb 91 in the south. hardly anything in some areas, for years at a time. reversion to mean, anyone?

[Optimus Prime]

The blitz? :lol:

Yes- That and the start of the 'Nuclear winters'. I know we haven't been letting atom bombs of lately but it's the same kinda thing lol.

"The first three decades of the century showed a gradual warming trend. Things were about to change. This year will be best remembered for the phenomenal January, with low overall temperatures, and an amazing ice storm. The winter 1939-40 was a hard one, and the first of three severe War Winters. There was snow cover for more than 50 days in northern Britain. It was the third equal (with 1916-17) coldest winter of the century (after 46-47 and 62-63), with a CET of 1.5C. An interesting summer, too, with a very warm June, a wet July, and dry August. July was the start of the longest string of consecutive colder-than-average months this century (although beaten by November 1878 to January 1880): 11 in all, up to May 1941"

Ta~harley

[Neilsouth]

From Ian Ferguson on the South West thread:

"In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for much of central southern England in the past 30 years. That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

Blimey!!

Move ahead to the weekend

"In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for much of east anglia and south east england in the past 100 years. That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

:lol: :lol:

[yukichon]

Its was nice and sunny here in Ware , no sign of anything on the horizon , seems to all be happening around us , no snow on the ground here sine Xmas eve !!!

[Guest FireStorm]

We should now be using nowcasting for snow I reckon, massive line of snow showing near Swindon so it would appear its on its way to reading and I'm interested to see where that mass of rain towards the SW is heading. xcweather and that general band across the west is either heading East or NE.

If that was to continue on its current course the SE and EA would be in its path (presuming nothing changes)

[Coast]

"That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

Have seen a précis of that, they don't pull any punches and that's to their own team!

[SMU]

Not too far away from how it all started :lol:

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/27Dec-1962.htm - 26th Dec 1962

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/28Dec-1962.htm - 27th Dec 1962

http://www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/29Dec-1962.htm - 28th Dec 1962

Now I am not saying this is a repeat, but it is interesting that when we get these Set-Ups they can be quite similar.

Paul--- can you give me a quick message reply on here as to the realistic expectation for my zone this eve- Ive got people ringing me at work & asking to go home early-

I cant get some model stuff at work- but radar looks at though iots quiet for a while to come....

is the SE still on for tomorrow-????

S

[simon65]

i was begining to be a doubter but this is really getting rather interesting its all kind of converging over the mid south ,happy days !

[Paul Sherman]

Certainly seems like a little activity popping up in past 20 or so minutes with some reports of light showers in places like Bromley, Brentwood, Chigwell.

Yep

They are keeping all the snow for themselves - Damn Aunty :lol:

[Snowangel-MK]

Paul what's even more interesting is that many parts of the Mediterranean have had thie wettest spell of weather since 1940 due to the southerly tracking jet.

Well all know what happened in 1940...

No we don't .... what happened

Way before my time !

[Upgrade]

15 Jan?

In a note to BBC presenting and UKMO staff, I paraphrase how the head of the Met Office today urged us to recognise that this is shaping up to be the most severe snowfall event for london in the past 10,000 years. That summarises the MO's words, not mine."

[NorthantsSnow]

Is anyone else concerned that the precip over the channel due to swing back towards the UK later is a bit further south than progged?!

I'm on edge here. :lol:

[VillagePlank]

As JH said on the other thread, almost certainly a now-casting scenario - although it looks like we may have the luxury of another model output to really nail things down - certainly interesting given how close the 'bulls-eye' is and that if it were to drift, I don't know, say only 50 miles east ...

The ascents will be of particular interest, too, given their observational nature.

Edited January 5, 2010 by VillagePlank