East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Neilsouth]

Its all a nowcast situation.

Its all about nowcasting.

ARchie.... We know

[Upgrade]

surrey is only a few miles from london - maybe we will get battered with 30 cm in town!!

[bbtablet]

Exactly as I said a moment ago myself - I find there is alot of activity now begining to appear almost out of the blue. Pretty exciting stuff from a nowcast POV

Sorry to be so thick, but I am new here - what is a nowcast and how do I access it?

Thanks.

[Hammer]

Whats the fuss..Hardly any clouds here, and its +1c at the moment. And the radar shows very little snow/rain around. I think we all have to wait till tomorows north easterly wind..First it was Monday then Tuesday and now Wednesday...getting fed up now, its all slow moving..

clacton you do make me laugh. Maybe you need to move, you seem so downbeat in almost every post. Your not ideally placed here.

[Derp Patrol]

just seen the N24 forecast and tbh i wouldnt wanna be living in woking ! had a 30cm warning sign slapped over it. - The snow looks to be encroaching through to east kent by midnight tonight and looks to continue mostly thru the night and tomorrow !....Snow showers Thursday for the SE then the Easterly winds kick in for the foreseeable !

Time to dig out the candles again and get prepared ! best to be safe than sorry.

I saw that as well, thankfully for me, I live about 7-8 miles from Woking, I might get a lot of snow tonight, not sure though

[liltbrockie]

Sorry to be so thick, but I am new here - what is a nowcast and how do I access it?

Thanks.

Look at the radar.. it shows you where the rain/ snow is

Alternatively look up at the sky.

[Shunter]

seems to be a small development forming around Epsom,surrey looking at the past 30 minutes. Can anybody confirm this?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Edited January 5, 2010 by Shunter

[Neilsouth]

The current situation is NOT what the fax shows , the cold front is moving across the south at a rather rapid rate... The low pressure center is just off the coast of wales and moving south , south west!. At this rate kent may well see snow this evening , maybe

Shunter , use this one http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/united_kingdom.html

Edited January 5, 2010 by neilsouth

[tasty_snacks]

Here's a prediction, either the water pipes will freeze or this board will crash over the next 24 hours. As a perpetual lurker I don't think I've ever seen such a frenzy.

I can understand the frustration of Nick and others, and to those who want answers, I would implore you to spend a mere £3.99 and buy the radar subscription. You will need it tonight more than ever- and anyone can interpret it! As Kold keeps stating, there are so many factors to consider here. It really is quite bonkers- I gave up late last night. TEITS mentioned it around 10am on the previous thread- scrap the models and stick your head out of the window/watch the radar.

This is a splendid winter and we must give it its due, even if nothing falls from the sky. I now have 2 inches of ice in my pond outside and recorded -3.6oC last night, and even the odd dusting seems to stick around for over 24 hours.

If you're desperate to see snow, consult the radar, and ogle the webcams on the Beeb. For example...

Edited January 5, 2010 by tasty_snacks

[gornaldo]

Sorry to be so thick, but I am new here - what is a nowcast and how do I access it?

Thanks.

Nowcasting is basically "very short-range forecasting", read the below..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/creating/hoursahead/nowcasting.html

[Damp and dreary]

I think you'll find that those may well be rain showers

Nope, has been all snow showers on the south coast :-)

[kold weather]

Looking like that will happen later on Tomorrow Night or early doors Thursday due to the merging of the snow bands and the fizzling out later wednesday, flow turns hard NE At Thurs 00z by the looks of things once the front clears off southwards

Paul S

Will be interesting to see what happens with the set-up on Thursday, the models really aren't keen on the set-up at all and yet I think in such a flow on the back of a cyclonic low we should see some showers pilling in. I think the problem for our location could be the LP in the North sea could keep our winds coming in from the NW, however there is a period where winds turn ENE which would be very good for our location.

Tomorrow could be very interesting indeed, models are keen on dropping the front down and I wouldn't be surprised if there is some embedded convection...

[Ocean Transit]

Net weather was on sky news last night in the newspaper review

(sorry mods only just remembered)

[k66yla]

I've just got back from work, I don't really want to trawl through all the posts, so whats happening and going to happen tonight/tomorrow? as I'm sure everything has changed since 4am this morning.

Forgot to add - The local council must have had a warning, I've never seen so much grit/salt on pavements in the town centre

Edited January 5, 2010 by k66yla

[fujita5]

clacton you do make me laugh. Maybe you need to move, you seem so downbeat in almost every post. Your not ideally placed here.

Yep, I live in Clacton too and we don't get HUGE volumnes of snow, however a roaring NE wind usually delivers something. We've had some memorable fals of snow in the past - 1982 (about a foot of level snow) and 1991 (at least 6 inches) stick in the memory for me. It's all about patience, it'll come!

[kold weather]

The current situation is NOT what the fax shows , the cold front is moving across the south at a rather rapid rate... The low pressure center is just off the coast of wales and moving south , south west!. At this rate kent may well see snow this evening , maybe

Shunter , use this one http://www.meteogrou...ed_kingdom.html

That is NOT the main low, its an eddy that has formed at mid levels that has managed to dig itself towards the surface, the main low is still forming from a broad area of low pressure over the Midlands...

What that unforecasted low could do is shift the frontal system further east...which obviously is an interesting development...

[Neilsouth]

That is NOT the main low, its an eddy that has formed at mid levels that has managed to dig itself towards the surface, the main low is still forming from a broad area of low pressure over the Midlands...

What that unforecasted low could do is shift the frontal system further east...which obviously is an interesting development...

Hmmm very confusing , do we have any current models where the fronts/troughs are? or could someone draw the fronts/troughs on a radar image?

[Ocean Transit]

Hmmm very confusing , do we have any current models where the fronts/troughs are? or could someone draw the fronts/troughs on a radar image?

Here you are:

http://i46.tinypic.com/rc34w1.gif

[Neilsouth]

Here you are:

http://i46.tinypic.com/rc34w1.gif

Brill , thankyou kindly

[NorthantsSnow]

Sky News now saying up to 40cm expected for the home counties and that the Met Office warnings are to be updated in an hour. Risk shifting east??

[Shunter]

The current situation is NOT what the fax shows , the cold front is moving across the south at a rather rapid rate... The low pressure center is just off the coast of wales and moving south , south west!. At this rate kent may well see snow this evening , maybe

Shunter , use this one http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/radar/united_kingdom.html

Thanks, actually it looks to be more near Sevenoaks on your radar !!

[Ocean Transit]

New text forecast from the Met (Issued 14:29Z)

WEDNESDAY:

LOW PRESSURE CENTED NEAR SOUTHAMPTON AT 00Z WILL SLOWLY MOVE SSE

DURING THE DAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND OCCLUSION. THIS WILL

GIVE PERSISTENT SN, LOC HVY WITH ISOL EMBD TS/CB, ACROSS MUCH OF S

ENGLAND. THE SN GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY TOWARDS THE SE DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT/BKN ST, BKN CUSC AND BKN/OVC ACAS IN

ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL ZONE. WIND N-NE LIGHT TO MOD, OCNL STRONG

IN N AND W OF FRONTAL ZONE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UK, A VERY COLD AND UNSTABLE MOD TO STRONG NE

FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL GIVE OCNL SHSN AND ISOL HVY SHSN/TSSN,

MAINLY IN N AND E. OCNL SCT/BKN CUSC AND ISOL CB. WIND NE LIGHT TO

MOD, OCNL STRONG COT SEA.

Still looking good

[Neilsouth]

[Jezzer]

surrey is only a few miles from london - maybe we will get battered with 30 cm in town!!

London really would grind to a halt! This evening could be very interesting

[Upgrade]

Sky News now saying up to 40cm expected for the home counties and that the Met Office warnings are to be updated in an hour. Risk shifting east??

i think some people at sky have been drinking at the overhype arms, surely. 40cm ? thats nearly a foot and a half.

i spoke to a relative 1000 ft up on the moors in yorks about an hour ago and even up there there's only about 15 cm even though it has snowed all day.

Edited January 5, 2010 by jimmyay