East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Snowgrowler]

Anyone available for advice - am supposed to drive from Essex to Loughborough tomorrow, to take my daughter back to college (not allowed on site before 6pm, but must be back by 9pm) - would normally leave home 3pm ish for a leisurely drive, am I going to have problems tomorrow?

[Mr Maunder]

Looking at the radar and the latest Met office NAE I suspect parts of Sussex and Kent may end up with a bit more than expected tonight.

It is a fair bit different from even the current N24 forecasts and shows how difficult it is to be precise with snow forecasting. Those involved do have my sympathy!

MM

[john w]

Hmm due to my job I hadnt been looking at the southerly extent, only the easterly extent.

I said earlier orange areas to become red and yellow for some to go orange.

TBH I can see this band which curves throuygh surrey the home counties and then along the M4 extending to the coast, you really have to base it on the NAE outputs but I would tentatively suggest that by the end of the night West Sussex will have seen a fair amount of snow. Also dues to the Eastward progression I could see West sussex becoming red, but its more about the confidence bands. The meto only issue red if they are 80% confident.

Im confident west sussex will see snow tonight, along with all the other areas we all know about

[TG312274]

Brighton area is orange on the Met Office warnings map. Looking at the GFS precipitation charts (okay we all know they're a bit dodgy but what the heck) we should get a decent covering tonight, not so sure about East Sussex as a whole though. Meteox.co.uk charts show PPN edging along the south coast to possibly hit Brighton around 9pm. 2C at Shoreham Airport at 1700, but a dewpoint of 0C, and I have a little bit of altitude here as well which should help.

[danm]

lol....depends on the weather warning! we are rght on the border here and are classed as essex but to get a mention on the mett office have to look at east of england but i agree should perhaps look at london more esp as that is orange and essex is yellow!!!!!

People in north and east Essex may not count themselves as South-East. But if you drive 5mins down the road into Hainault you'll be in Greater London. You are at the most south western extent of Essex, right on the border with Greater London.

Edited January 5, 2010 by danm

[essex coast matt]

hoping its not rain tonight, if we get any thing out of the sky, i see lydd airport reporting 0c and manston both near the coast -1.6 here at mo, under partly cloudy skies

[huntso]

What we have to remember is tonight/tomorrow we're being attacked from the SW and NE. I say attacked because if what im thinking is right then some will get pasting.

St Ives snow shields are up, virtually inpenetrable so bring it on

[saint]

Herts Highways are expecting heavy snowfall onight.

[Polar Bear]

Anyone available for advice - am supposed to drive from Essex to Loughborough tomorrow, to take my daughter back to college (not allowed on site before 6pm, but must be back by 9pm) - would normally leave home 3pm ish for a leisurely drive, am I going to have problems tomorrow?

I wouldnt bother. seriously or make other arrangements. Check the Highwasy Agency website. YOu will have to travel around M25 which will be crazy. be careful.

[Derp Patrol]

Well I'm in the firing line for this massive band of PPN coming up! looks like it will hit me in about 45mins - 1 hour. Good luck everyone, it's all about to begin, just about to go put my coat and gloves on!

my predictions for tomorrow by 12pm

Reading: 25-30cm

Surrey: 15-25cm

London: 10cm

Kent: 5cm

[kold weather]

I see that the MetO has now turned Surrey red for very heavy snow (not far to my west), in line perhaps with the slight shift east by 12z GFS and NAE tonight of the heaviest snowfall - you can see the 12z GFS and NAE charts that i've posted side by side in John H's blog.

Yep, I'll be in constant contact with my gf to see just whats happening over Guildford way, I can imagine they are going to get a pretty good whack, 7-9 inches in that region...

I suspect looking at the evolution of this pattern means its quite possible a very wide region of the south could see 10cms+, at the moment the bullseye is EXACTLY where I was thinking last night, quite impressed with that call if I say so myself

MM, yep I did raise this last night that Kent and Sussex away from the coasts could well see some decent falls, if anything the 12z suite now extends the threat further NE as well into London and Essex thanks to the slow motion of the second front and its clearence.

[Kiwi]

Just started snowing here in north hampshire (8 miles south of Reading/ 5 miles north of Basingstoke)

Moderate ... 100% snow and the road outside my house is now white after just a few mins of snow

Now Heavy snow -- The countryside here is now completely white!

[snowuse]

Probably because no snow is forecast to fall until tomorrow!

Without wishing to be pedantic, the forecast on the 7-16 day states snow almost every hour today AND tomorrow. I was pointing out that this is at major odds with the met office forecast, sadly. Here's hoping.

[simon65]

Anyone available for advice - am supposed to drive from Essex to Loughborough tomorrow, to take my daughter back to college (not allowed on site before 6pm, but must be back by 9pm) - would normally leave home 3pm ish for a leisurely drive, am I going to have problems tomorrow?

i just see the reply you got i would also like to add you will have to travel on the M1 and thats going thro the worst spot ,i think college can wait a few day maybe if you tell them

[Me & angel fiance]

How up to date is the Sky news?

On now and said the areas at risk is extending and it showed on the graphics it seeming to hit Essex overnight and stalling.

[Downpour]

I don't see Greater London in the red zone?

It isn't. It's still orange!

[Southender]

Yep, I'll be in constant contact with my gf to see just whats happening over Guildford way, I can imagine they are going to get a pretty good whack, 7-9 inches in that region...

I suspect looking at the evolution of this pattern means its quite possible a very wide region of the south could see 10cms+, at the moment the bullseye is EXACTLY where I was thinking last night, quite impressed with that call if I say so myself

MM, yep I did raise this last night that Kent and Sussex away from the coasts could well see some decent falls, if anything the 12z suite now extends the threat further NE as well into London and Essex thanks to the slow motion of the second front and its clearence.

Still concerned about these progged onshore winds Kold...

[BucksSnow]

its not snowing in high wycombe at the moment

I hope to get a few cms what do you think

[Upgrade]

And last feb it was cold enough to settle in central london. I cant tell you how many times when the temp has hovered around zero/just above and its snowing in central london and not settling, then i go home half an hour on the tube, and there is some snow on the ground.

this often happens with me too. 6 miles south of the centre with even only 50m+ elevation and the temp can have fallen a couple of degrees or ocassionally even more in certain conditions it does make a difference to settling snow.

ideally we need a bit of wind to mix away the heat island effect. 15- 20mph often enough.

[Mark Burton]

If you are right it will test the St Ives snow shield to the limit, but think it will hold

I think we will see some snow in St Ives over the next 24 hours - I agree with 'Eye In The Sky'

[Tom D]

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Current pressure readings are right in line with the 12z GFS. This is going nowhere fast and some areas are going to see a once-in-30 year event tonight and tomorrow.

[essex coast matt]

nw radar starting to look good over north east hampshire looks like the start of it, essex turn from thurs and over the weekend the wind chill will be nasty too

[Southender]

How up to date is the Sky news?

On now and said the areas at risk is extending and it showed on the graphics it seeming to hit Essex overnight and stalling. :unsure:

Really?

Interesting.

I would say Sky is better than the BBC to be honest. May have to switch it on..

[Hammer]

Yep, I'll be in constant contact with my gf to see just whats happening over Guildford way, I can imagine they are going to get a pretty good whack, 7-9 inches in that region...

I suspect looking at the evolution of this pattern means its quite possible a very wide region of the south could see 10cms+, at the moment the bullseye is EXACTLY where I was thinking last night, quite impressed with that call if I say so myself

MM, yep I did raise this last night that Kent and Sussex away from the coasts could well see some decent falls, if anything the 12z suite now extends the threat further NE as well into London and Essex thanks to the slow motion of the second front and its clearence.

You have a thing against East Hertfordshire, I just know it. :unsure:

Edited January 5, 2010 by Hammer

[fatyido]

Yep, I'll be in constant contact with my gf to see just whats happening over Guildford way, I can imagine they are going to get a pretty good whack, 7-9 inches in that region...

I suspect looking at the evolution of this pattern means its quite possible a very wide region of the south could see 10cms+, at the moment the bullseye is EXACTLY where I was thinking last night, quite impressed with that call if I say so myself :unsure:

MM, yep I did raise this last night that Kent and Sussex away from the coasts could well see some decent falls, if anything the 12z suite now extends the threat further NE as well into London and Essex thanks to the slow motion of the second front and its clearence.

As expected - not a single flake for Cambridgeshire - it always misses us. All I can hope for is showers drifting inland from the wash area.....boo..!