South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[BARRY]

Spotlight forecast still going for heavy snow on Sunday

hopefully we will get more than 1cm that we got today

[WESTERN SNOWS]

It really started to get heavy at about 3am, we had an inch in 30 mins! and was still going when I crawled to bed.

Yeah, I saw the advisories about sunday into monday, could be another good amount!

ive been looking at this for sunday monday but cant see any LP or anything around then just high pressure is there somthing im not seeing there?

[dogs32]

Spotlight forecast still going for heavy snow on Sunday

hi mate..how far west

[Dartmoor_Matt]

hi mate..how far west

Spotlight covers Devon/Cornwall parts of Dorset and parts of Somerset, so that far west I guess. Not sure how far north, I think the general gist was that its picking up moisture over the English channel, which would suggest Southerly regions, but the MO has advisories out for alot of places, infact the whole of the SW region.

Looking at the UKMO the wind is coming from the Urals straight to us... so strong winds dragging in lots of snow... hopefully.

Edited January 6, 2010 by Dartmoor_Matt

[twister2005]

points west said about heavy snow for this area on sunday :)

[Wynn D Woo]

hi mate..how far west

Richard on Points West made mention of it.

[rbw]

5 inches of lying snow here now and temp now -4.5c

Edited January 6, 2010 by rbw

[rockhopper]

ive been looking at this for sunday monday but cant see any LP or anything around then just high pressure is there somthing im not seeing there?

Sorry, I ment the advisories on the tv forecast.

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi all

Very sorry for lack of input here today- was working from 0330 and only now logging on back at home ahead of another early tomorrow (and emulation of Lewis Hamilton driving skills on very treacherous roads here in S Glos tomorrow AM)....

Anyway, glad - in at least some respects - that our forecast bore fruit for most if not all of you with expectations of snow; as the last NAE frames I had an opportunity to post here yesterday indicated, it was always going to become an overnight story about the wraparound PPN, intensity and areal spread, but i guess it didn't disappoint in the general sense.

Different version of 'disappoint', of course, for those who have been badly affected by this even and wil continue to feel profound impacts in the days ahead - spare a thought for those to whom this sort of weather is anything but a yahoo.

Aside from the extreme cold and ice, next problems brew into the late weekend. This could get a good deal worse before it gets better.

Best

Ian

Edited January 6, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Sorry, I ment the advisories on the tv forecast.

well fingers crossed we see some more i mean this is turning out to be a real stonker of a winter so far but just somthing to add as well my cousin rang me up to with happy new year from canada toronto and he said they have had nothing yet which is very very unsual and yet were getting quite a bit maybe this global warming got something to do with it but personally i think its all a load of tosh just another way to make money out of us. anyways roll on sunday/monday:drinks:

[yipikiaye]

I know its early days but i heard rumour its going to go mild next week

[khodds]

Hi all

Very sorry for lack of input here today- was working from 0330 and only now logging on back at home ahead of another early tomorrow (and emulation of Lewis Hamilton driving skills on very treacherous roads here in S Glos tomorrow AM)....

Anyway, glad - in at least some respects - that our forecast bore fruit for most if not all of you with expectations of snow; as the last NAE frames I had an opportunity to post here yesterday indicated, it was always going to become an overnight story about the wraparound PPN, intensity and areal spread, but i guess it didn't disappoint in the general sense.

Different version of 'disappoint', of course, for those who have been badly affected by this even and wil continue to feel profound impacts in the days ahead - spare a thought for those to whom this sort of weather is anything but a yahoo.

Aside from the extreme cold and ice, next problems brew into the late weekend. This could get a good deal worse before it gets better.

Best

Ian

Tease! I know.. I know to early for details yet! Can't wait tho.. another night radar watching! Thanks for taking the time to post yesterday tho - must have been manic

Kate

[dogs32]

beautiful

edit thanks for the heads up Ian for a possibility this weekend

Edited January 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Hi all

Very sorry for lack of input here today- was working from 0330 and only now logging on back at home ahead of another early tomorrow (and emulation of Lewis Hamilton driving skills on very treacherous roads here in S Glos tomorrow AM)....

Anyway, glad - in at least some respects - that our forecast bore fruit for most if not all of you with expectations of snow; as the last NAE frames I had an opportunity to post here yesterday indicated, it was always going to become an overnight story about the wraparound PPN, intensity and areal spread, but i guess it didn't disappoint in the general sense.

Different version of 'disappoint', of course, for those who have been badly affected by this even and wil continue to feel profound impacts in the days ahead - spare a thought for those to whom this sort of weather is anything but a yahoo.

Aside from the extreme cold and ice, next problems brew into the late weekend. This could get a good deal worse before it gets better.

Best

Ian

Good Evening Ian,

Yes, it has certainly been 'good' here, but with temps down at -3.4C already it could be tricky tomorrow!

Drive safe!

Got any snippets of info regarding Saturday into Sunday?

I know its early days but i heard rumour its going to go mild next week

Depends if you jump on the GFS roller coaster I guess.

No one else seems to be taking the idea of that yet, even the MO update for the very end of the forecast is for low confidence in a less cold scenario. Enjoy what we have at the moment is the best advice!

[Ian Fergusson]

I know its early days but i heard rumour its going to go mild next week

No.

The UKMO Medium-range guys are consistently telling in briefings through the past 48hrs us of a small, consistently-present but very low confidence signal for a gradual transition to a milder SW/S type later in the 10-15 day period but it's miles away frankly and effectively irrelevant. Between now and then, the cold signal is profoundly strong and potentially colder than now.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Aside from the extreme cold and ice, next problems brew into the late weekend. This could get a good deal worse before it gets better.

Thanks Ian, where is the sign of snow for Sunday coming from?

[yipikiaye]

Thanks very much

Its always nice to know that the snow will stick around for a few days though.Already looking towards sunday/monday event already.Very tired today after walking 6 mile to work and home again on my mountain bike this morning was a real struggle.Only to then have to shovel deep snow off the forecourt at work took hrs lol

[Ian Fergusson]

Tease! I know.. I know to early for details yet! Can't wait tho.. another night radar watching! Thanks for taking the time to post yesterday tho - must have been manic

Kate

Hi Kate

I was manic. 4 hrs sleep and trudged back through deserted Clifton into work ot 0330 this morning, then watched the snow intensify. To say me and Rich Angwin shared some combined sigh of relief later this morning discussing it would be an understatement. Neither of us managed much sleep due to out-of-window checks throughout the night. Sad, but such is the nature of our profession!!

Don't bother radar watching tonight - thermometer watching another matter. Minima around -10 wholly possible in rural spots for our area, maybe less. UKMO model calls for -7 even in central Brissle.

Will afford details for weekend in due course. It could be spectacular but then I'm bereft of energy to ramp anything after the saga of the past 24hrs.....

Edited January 6, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[yipikiaye]

No.

The UKMO Medium-range guys are consistently telling in briefings through the past 48hrs us of a small, consistently-present but very low confidence signal for a gradual transition to a milder SW/S type later in the 10-15 day period but it's miles away frankly and effectively irrelevant. Between now and then, the cold signal is profoundly strong and potentially colder than now.

Thanks very much

Its some off those peeps over in the model discussion thread which started me wondering tut lol

My area even featured on points west this evening which was a nice suprise

Edited January 6, 2010 by yipikiaye

[dancing daisy]

Thanks for your help and patience. I feel this is something that is going to take me a long time to learn.

It is very pink around me at the moment, but only like a pebbledash type of thing.

Ian. Thank you for all your advice these past few days. It has enabled me to warn my elderly parents and to show off to my friends

[khodds]

Hi Kate

I was manic. 4 hrs sleep and trudged back through deserted Clifton into work ot 0330 this morning, then watched the snow intensify. To say me and Rich Angwin shared some combined sigh of relief later this morning discussing it would be an understatement. Neither of us managed much sleep due to out-of-window checks throughout the night. Sad, but such is the nature of our profession!!

Don't bother radar watching tonight - thermometer watching another matter. Minima around -10 wholly possible in rural spots for our area, maybe less. UKMO model calls for -7 even in central Brissle.

Will afford details for weekend in due course. It could be spectacular but then I'm bereft of energy to ramp anything after the saga of the past 24hrs.....

I'm def. too tired to radar watch tonight, (well - if there was the promise of snow it would be a different matter ) I'll will make sure my energy levels are restored for the weekend then.. sounds interesting!

Be interesting to see what and where the coldest place in our region is tonight, though Richard hinted Marlborough way? Glad you and him are the same as me - window watching! I'm not the only one!

Kate

Edited January 6, 2010 by khodds

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks Ian, where is the sign of snow for Sunday coming from?

Where from? Russia, Poland, you name it - anywhere east of Belgium and with southern British Isles in crosshairs!! But seriously, it has potential to be a very troubling event, if ibecame reality. Hence UKMO advisory up good and early, Obviously, the sub-regional detail not even worth discussing this far off so don;t ask!

[dogs32]

Ian you have become celebrity status on here.

Mr Richard Angwin also did a superb forecast on BBC Glos last night..

I for the first time appreciate that you don't get a lot of time in the TV slot for any great detail..

well done guy's

Edited January 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Ian Fergusson]

I'm def. too tired to radar watch tonight, (well - if there was the promise of snow it would be a different matter ) I'll will make sure my energy levels are restored for the weekend then.. sounds interesting!

Be interesting to see what and where the coldest place in our region is tonight, though Richard hinted Marlborough way? Glad you and him are the same as me - window watching! I'm not the only one!

Kate

Yeah, wherever those snowfields are most widespread inland, it will be extreme minima. I suuggested more conservative -9 but Rich with later guidance suggests even less and very plausibly. I will discover all tomorrow morning!!

You are not only window watcher / twitcher (solely for WEATHER watching in my case, I do stress!!!!)

[03jtrickey]

Hi Kate

I was manic. 4 hrs sleep and trudged back through deserted Clifton into work ot 0330 this morning, then watched the snow intensify. To say me and Rich Angwin shared some combined sigh of relief later this morning discussing it would be an understatement. Neither of us managed much sleep due to out-of-window checks throughout the night. Sad, but such is the nature of our profession!!

Don't bother radar watching tonight - thermometer watching another matter. Minima around -10 wholly possible in rural spots for our area, maybe less. UKMO model calls for -7 even in central Brissle.

Will afford details for weekend in due course. It could be spectacular but then I'm bereft of energy to ramp anything after the saga of the past 24hrs.....

Thanks so much Ian! This snow watching is tiring me out (not least because I walked 15 miles today) though I can't imagine how you must feel with those early shifts!

When you talk of out-of-window checks, are they in the hope that the event will come off as forecast? I think the forecasters handled it pretty well, after the ppt. materialised on the NAE a couple of days ago. PS yes I'm looking forward to tonight's low minima - I'm already recording -2.1C.

Got some good karma earlier - helped to push a car out of a snow drift near Leckhampton

Dogs32 - Shelburne Rd there!! So close to my house!

Edited January 6, 2010 by 03jtrickey