London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

So does anyone think we might just get something in Croydon Surrey. Seem to be right on the edge. Would be nice to go out of this cold snap with a bang ruther than a cold thaw

I think the local Borough Council representative is preparing an advisory this afternoon

[snowbob]

I think the local Borough Council representative is preparing an advisory this afternoon

Could be a good event. BBC not making much fuss about it getting further east so all to play for

[tcc]

Oooo I wonder if we are just about in the zone to get something and if so then we might be far enough in land to stay as snow! One last hurrah!

[pureasthedriven]

it might be getting warmer but its getting wetter, the weather over the next week is going to be Far from warm and pleasant.

Absolutely baltic out there this afternoon. Don't have a thermometer today but is noticeably colder than this morning, due to the moister air as much as anything else, I suspect.

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Could be a good event. BBC not making much fuss about it getting further east so all to play for

i got a mate who lives in essex and he just rang me to say how jealous he is after seeing the forecast lunchtime and i must admit bristol looks a good bet for a dumping but how far east it will get is anyones guess all im hoping for is that i dont have to go a work wednesday morning due to being snowed in lol:drinks:

[snowbob]

i got a mate who lives in essex and he just rang me to say how jealous he is after seeing the forecast lunchtime and i must admit bristol looks a good bet for a dumping but how far east it will get is anyones guess all im hoping for is that i dont have to go a work wednesday morning due to being snowed in lol:drinks:

Yeah mate good luck your well in the zone. Should get a good fall there

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Yeah mate good luck your well in the zone. Should get a good fall there

cheers mate hopefully fingers crossed

[thevalley]

Absolutely baltic out there this afternoon. Don't have a thermometer today but is noticeably colder than this morning, due to the moister air as much as anything else, I suspect.

According to BBC -its below freezing at -1c in Bromley at the moment so this is going to be a freezing day which is surprising . Colder tonight should make the snow thats lying just a little bit drier. Tuesday/Wed could be interesting. Very slow thaw which means any snow left might last until the next cold plunge:whistling:

[wee]

Away from the south coast there is a chance of more snow in the western most parts of this region. 5cms or so inland, on current estimations seems most likely

Brighton and Hove for eg is missing on the METO warning list which does indicate that rain and sleet are more likely close to the south east coast, say 5 to 10 miles or so, after perhaps some initial snow.

To be honest i will be surprised if we do get snow as i think we have had our fair share,but have noticed it is a lot colder today.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

To be honest i will be surprised if we do get snow as i think we have had our fair share,but have noticed it is a lot colder today.

I think there is a good chance that snow will fall initially as the dewpoints will be low on the coast as well. What usually always happens from my own experience before in this sort of set-up of when I lived very close to the coast is that when the precipation starts, the dewpoints rise and pull the available moisture off the channel so that it turns through sleet towards rain. An onshore flow of wind usually always does this as sea temperatures, even though they have fallen some way with the recent very cold conditions, will still be high enough to make it very marginal - especially right on the coast. You would need the sort of upper cold pool that we saw late last week and ths start of this weekend to guarantee snow right on the coast with a wind off the channel. Such cold pools don't generally arrive from that direction !

Places close to the south east coast need an offshore wind (NE'erly is best) to guarantee snow. In that sort of situation conditions are often less marginal than the North Kent coast

[Paul Sherman]

GFS 12z says game on for London and parts of the South East for Early Wednesday Morning, much more of an ESE Flow and Colder Uppers around, I wonder if the 18z will continue with the same line.

Interesting times ahead!

Paul S

[Hammer]

GFS 12z says game on for London and parts of the South East for Early Wednesday Morning, much more of an ESE Flow and Colder Uppers around, I wonder if the 18z will continue with the same line.

Interesting times ahead!

Paul S

ESE flow and quite a decent breeze as well in some areas.

[Mikel Nimbus]

A fair amount of the 06z ensemble members this morning had the ppn band making its way over London but the op run had it stalling further west. 12z operational run has now taken it a step further with some impressive ppn intensity and the front easily making it over London and beyond.

The main difference on 12z is that the front attacks at more of a ssw'erly angle.

This is obviously a very different synoptical set up from last Tuesday's event, but again it seems it is GFS versus the rest in terms of how far east the rain/snow band gets. Let's hope GFS pulls through again.

Looking at UKMO fax, although the front doesn't get as far east, it is occluding at just the right time for some heavier ppn as it hits the south coast.

[Southender]

GFS 12z says game on for London and parts of the South East for Early Wednesday Morning, much more of an ESE Flow and Colder Uppers around, I wonder if the 18z will continue with the same line.

Interesting times ahead!

Paul S

Indeed, for most. Except us!

[xentrix]

Wow I know its touch n go on this but do you guys really think London is gonna get hit with a heavy precipitation event ?? Anything positive about this ?

[Polar Bear]

Wow I know its touch n go on this but do you guys really think London is gonna get hit with a heavy precipitation event ?? Anything positive about this ?

I am a complete novice on this but as with any models it is as good as the data that it is based on. As Paul Sherman has commented and he is pretty good, my view as it stands today is that it is positive. It all depends on what the models churn out nearer the event, with more up to date data fed in.

All in all keep an eye until nearer the time........see what tomorrow will bring......

[NorthantsSnow]

Wow I know its touch n go on this but do you guys really think London is gonna get hit with a heavy precipitation event ?? Anything positive about this ?

No. I think parts of Wales, the West Midlands and Wiltshire (all the W's) will see a heavy snow event. London may see up to 2mm snowfall over 6hrs, but compared to what we saw last week it's small fry and not a heavy snow event.

[clark3r]

I am a complete novice on this but as with any models it is as good as the data that it is based on. As Paul Sherman has commented and he is pretty good, my view as it stands today is that it is positive. It all depends on what the models churn out nearer the event, with more up to date data fed in.

All in all keep an eye until nearer the time........see what tomorrow will bring......

really dont know what is going to happen on this rain/snow event tue/wed all i know is its either going to be heavy rain or heavy snow! surely places north of the downs have a really good chance of significant snow fall south of the downs will just have to wait and see!

[Polar Bear]

really dont know what is going to happen on this rain/snow event tue/wed all i know is its either going to be heavy rain or heavy snow! surely places north of the downs have a really good chance of significant snow fall south of the downs will just have to wait and see!

I reckon u could be right there ....north of the Downs that it is.. and the wait and see.....(ooh this wait and see I am no good at. Am far too impatient!)

[xentrix]

Thx for the info folks .... we'll see what transpires over next few days.

[Paul Sherman]

Wow I know its touch n go on this but do you guys really think London is gonna get hit with a heavy precipitation event ?? Anything positive about this ?

Positives and Negatives

The Euro Model is having none of this and does not really erode the Block so keeps the precip out West. Best bet is to see what it says from the 18z Update

UKMO Fax is looking good and is probably somewhere between the 2 Models atm

GFS Pushes this band all the way through but as we know that Model is far too progressive against Blocking Scenarios and naturally it's output shows the outcome with the precip way too far east if you want a sensible answer.

So the 18z's are going to be pretty Interesting tonight, although I am expecting the Middle ground to win out meaning C London being the furthest East for the precip as it stands right now.

Paul S

[Southender]

Quickie for the pro's here.

PPN looks to arrive around midnight Tues/Weds according to GFS (Which we know is progressive)

But with uppers around -3/-4, air temps of 0-2c and dp's around -1 (generally) is this favourable for snow?

I'm thinking hell yeah and game on IF the GFS materialises (Unlikely)

[Southender]

NAE says yes...

[JAWebb]

Quickie for the pro's here.

PPN looks to arrive around midnight Tues/Weds according to GFS (Which we know is progressive)

But with uppers around -3/-4, air temps of 0-2c and dp's around -1 (generally) is this favourable for snow?

I'm thinking hell yeah and game on IF the GFS materialises (Unlikely)

Try using this guide from JH and see what you think... there are a couple more factors you need to look at but you are on the right lines.

[Polar Bear]

Positives and Negatives

The Euro Model is having none of this and does not really erode the Block so keeps the precip out West. Best bet is to see what it says from the 18z Update

UKMO Fax is looking good and is probably somewhere between the 2 Models atm

GFS Pushes this band all the way through but as we know that Model is far too progressive against Blocking Scenarios and naturally it's output shows the outcome with the precip way too far east if you want a sensible answer.

So the 18z's are going to be pretty Interesting tonight, although I am expecting the Middle ground to win out meaning C London being the furthest East for the precip as it stands right now.

Paul S

On that basis as I have lost internet connection at home I am going to hang round work here to see what the 18z come up with.....come on UKMO you can do it...