London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[john mac]

just got this on my RSS feed for Met Office

I think at the moment MAF it will be south and west of london that is at risk

[Bluebreezer54]

A further downgrade this morning for most places it would seem. Some areas of higher ground in the SW and South Wales possibly seeing some snow but for the rest rain is looking more likely. Thats my take on it anyway.

[MAF]

I think at the moment MAF it will be south and west of london that is at risk

yes mate, but we can but hope...

actually i am really not so sure about this. it all depends how strong the winds are that are driving it into the SW. very marginal stuff and maybe worth a close eye on the Sat and Radar images

[juthepoo]

Amazing levels of precip showing over ROI at the moment. This system certainly looks like it will pack a punch, but I guess the million dollar question is "snow or rain?" for most of us.

Shall we flip a coin? It might be as good as any forecast we'll get from the Met or Beeb!

[Amanzi]

A further downgrade this morning for most places it would seem. Some areas of higher ground in the SW and South Wales possibly seeing some snow but for the rest rain is looking more likely. Thats my take on it anyway.

What are you basing this on? models, fax charts??? Would just like to know why you think this.

[pureasthedriven]

Morning,

My journey in from SE to SW London this morning had a different 'feel' to it. Certainly not quite as cold (though yesterday was punishingly cold) and there has been a notable thaw overnight, although many areas off the main drags remain snow covered.

Re later, that front looks like it might occlude at just the right time for us. You do have to wonder though at how much the warmer uppers will mix the surface flow and give us a wintry mix rather than snow. Having said that, plenty of energy in the system and if it hits, as progged, beyond midnight, then that may give the region the best shot of some decent snowfall, especially where elevated. On the 00z it looks as if we pull in a somewhat colder SE flow ahead of the front during the small hours, which could make weds rush hour very interesting. However, all extremely marginal.

My eye is also still firmly on that huge Scandi/W Russian block retrogressing westwards around 18th-20th timeframe, as it has done for run after run on the GFS. Long way out but definitely a trend in this model.

Edited January 12, 2010 by pureasthedriven

[Barometric]

I mentioned yesterday that advisories would be issued for our area yesterday and come this afternoon I would expect them to be issued. Nothing heavy but certainly enough to cause a little concern for the rush hour. Usual suspects will get a covering ie High Weald, N Downs and I would expect up to a couple of inches to freshen things up a bit. I would say that the SE is well placed for snow drawing on surface cold from a frozen continent and lower dew points. Area to the N of the estuary may well not fair quite so well.

Interesting nonetheless and something to keep a little interest for the next 24-36 hours before the inevitable thaw.

James

Edited January 12, 2010 by Barometric

[Downpour]

I mentioned yesterday that advisories would be issued for our area yesterday and come this afternoon I would expect them to be issued. Nothing heavy but certainly enough to cause a little concern for the rush hour. Usual suspects will get a covering ie High Weald, N Downs and I would expect up to a couple of inches to freshen things up a bit. I would say that the SE is well placed for snow drawing on surface cold from a frozen continent and lower dew points. Area to the N of the estuary may well not fair quite so well.

Interesting nonetheless and something to keep a little interest for the next 24-36 hours before the inevitable thaw.

James

well for what it's worth meteogroup weatherproof app has 2.6cm of snow for London for wednesday and a 90 percent chance of ppn. I find it is remarkably reliable at this range. Usually does much better than the BBC who always over ramp ppn in London (also annoyingly in the summer when I need rain for my garden)

Edited January 12, 2010 by Downpour

[wee]

Hi guys ,just wondered if anyone knows if Brighton will get some more snow or will it just be rain?

[Coast]

On the 00z it looks as if we pull in a somewhat colder SE flow ahead of the front during the small hours, which could make weds rush hour very interesting. However, all extremely marginal.

Nothing heavy but certainly enough to cause a little concern for the rush hour. Usual suspects will get a covering ie High Weald, N Downs and I would expect up to a couple of inches to freshen things up a bit.

I suspect you are both on the money there. I'm actually looking for a good covering down here very early in the morning hours - not sure if it will be slush or snow, but fingers crossed!

[Bluebreezer54]

What are you basing this on? models, fax charts??? Would just like to know why you think this.

It looks as though the system coming into the south west is containing milder air than models were originally suggesting, coupled with the gradual thaw thats been taking place in the south east for the last couple of days. Personally I cant see where a feed of the neccessary colder air might come from at this stage.

[MAF]

Hi guys ,just wondered if anyone knows if Brighton will get some more snow or will it just be rain?

too close to call whether it will be rain/snow for you in eary hours of wednesday. another problem with your area will be fog. it is really marginal though as to what this band of PPN will drop. i think you may need to keep an eye on the dew temps and judge if they are dropping then it may be snow

[wee]

too close to call whether it will be rain/snow for you in eary hours of wednesday. another problem with your area will be fog. it is really marginal though as to what this band of PPN will drop. i think you may need to keep an eye on the dew temps and judge if they are dropping then it may be snow

Thanks ,will keep a close eye,would be good to see some more snow now,still have a good amount on the ground though,fingers crossed.

[Barometric]

It looks as though the system coming into the south west is containing milder air than models were originally suggesting, coupled with the gradual thaw thats been taking place in the south east for the last couple of days. Personally I cant see where a feed of the neccessary colder air might come from at this stage.

From our freinds in France. All the ingredients are there for snow away from the immediate coastal strip and even here as the precip is progged to arrive around midnight/early hours, I wouldn't be suprised to see any rain or sleet turn to snow for a time as evapourative cooling takes effect. 5-10 miles in land it will ALL be snow.

Paradoxically for Central London I would expect this event will probably one of the best in our cold spell as the system arrives at the perfect time.

Whatever happens tomorrow will be raw. A biting ESE wind and light/moderate snow at times before it fizzles out.

James

[Hammer]

It looks as though the system coming into the south west is containing milder air than models were originally suggesting, coupled with the gradual thaw thats been taking place in the south east for the last couple of days. Personally I cant see where a feed of the neccessary colder air might come from at this stage.

From our friends on the continent. However if the flow is not quite right it will be marginal. If all things fall in our favour there is the potential. A case of waiting until later.

[Kent Snow]

Woke this morning to a very slight dusting on my car. Proper snow flakes.

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like a last chance Saloon and parting shot now for Tomorrow AM for London and the SE.

Models overnight now moving away from anything Cold RE-Loading, GFS Sticking to it's guns and ECM Now starting to wobble on it's blocking scenario, so this could be the last chance of anything wintry in our area for a few weeks.

Temps should be around average for the back end of the weekend with 6-8c in the South and Overnight Lows of around 4c.

Paul S

[Southender]

With the air temp already at 1c and a dewpoint of 0c here in Southend. I certainly know what I am expecting later. Sleet/cold rain at best. Not too fussed though. Want this horrible grey slush to bugger off! Those inland, enjoy your snow

Looks like a last chance Saloon and parting shot now for Tomorrow AM for London and the SE.

Models overnight now moving away from anything Cold RE-Loading, GFS Sticking to it's guns and ECM Now starting to wobble on it's blocking scenario, so this could be the last chance of anything wintry in our area for a few weeks.

Temps should be around average for the back end of the weekend with 6-8c in the South and Overnight Lows of around 4c.

Paul S

How boring!

[Paul Sherman]

Normal Mid January Mid Winter Weather LS

Roll on 25th April - Now that is SERIOUS Weather

[JamesCoop]

Looks like a last chance Saloon and parting shot now for Tomorrow AM for London and the SE.

Models overnight now moving away from anything Cold RE-Loading, GFS Sticking to it's guns and ECM Now starting to wobble on it's blocking scenario, so this could be the last chance of anything wintry in our area for a few weeks.

Temps should be around average for the back end of the weekend with 6-8c in the South and Overnight Lows of around 4c.

Paul S

You think that the Scandi/Russian block will not progress westwards?

Also I live in the guildford area, just on the edge of the N.Downs, reckon I'll see some snowfall tonight? If so, how much? Being snowed in again would be a dream!

[MAF]

Looks like a last chance Saloon and parting shot now for Tomorrow AM for London and the SE.

Models overnight now moving away from anything Cold RE-Loading, GFS Sticking to it's guns and ECM Now starting to wobble on it's blocking scenario, so this could be the last chance of anything wintry in our area for a few weeks.

Temps should be around average for the back end of the weekend with 6-8c in the South and Overnight Lows of around 4c.

Paul S

yes indeed Paul. i think it will be mostly a nuiscance factor tomorrow morning, but after that then its looking like a period of normal temps for January

[Paul Sherman]

Yesterday I thought it would around the 25th Jan but now I am about 30/70 against due to overnight Models (Esp ECM) Dont even ask me about February as it could be anything tbh

I reckon favoured spots in the SE (Eg Elevation) could see a few Inches if they luck out on any heavier Precip, just a dusting or 1-2cm for most though, Tomorrow will be a depressing day once the Band moves through and we are left with a raw wind and bits and pieces of Sleet/Rain and Snow blowing in the air.

Rough IMHO

Paul S

[Southender]

GFS 6z has downgraded the heavier PPn for most of us I feel...

Some heavier stuff in parts of Sussex, other than that, mostly light stuff.

Which in my opinion equals sleet/wet snow for most at lower levels.

Either way, it's not going to be anything to write home about, that's for sure.

Edited January 12, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[TEITS]

Normal Mid January Mid Winter Weather LS

Roll on 25th April - Now that is SERIOUS Weather

I bet even now your adrenaline is flowing in anticipation of chasing those twisters.

Looking at the NMM and it suggests light snow at first in the SE before turning to rain tomorrow.

As for the reloading E,lys. Well watch this space because I think i've spotted a trend in the ensembles and im hoping todays GFS runs continue with this. Keep your eye on the mean to drop around the 20th because the GFS OP/Control runs keeping following each other!

[Coast]

Some heavier stuff in parts of Sussex, other than that, mostly light stuff.

Away from coasts IMO, but should make an interesting journey to work!