London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[MAF]

Away from coasts IMO, but should make an interesting journey to work!

yep a nano-metre of snow in London should bring it all to a halt. well Southeastern trains dont even need that much, just a sniff of the stuff and they seem to close down

[Southender]

Cor blimey guv' the 6z GFS is a total shocker, for coldies. Average/Above average temps returning for the weekend and next week at least, along with wind and rain. Unless something dramatic changes. Cannot see where the way back for cold is at all. :unsure:

Edited January 12, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[pureasthedriven]

Cor blimey guv' the 6z GFS is a total shocker, for coldies. Average temps returning for the weekend and next week at least, along with wind and rain. Unless something dramatic changes. Cannot see where the way back for cold is at all.

But the trend is still very much there for potential scandi blocking around 19-20th. Again...

[Southender]

But the trend is still very much there for potential scandi blocking around 19-20th. Again...

Yep. Did notice that. Will take a week to 10 days of normality, if it means a reload from the E/NE. Let's hope so. That Siberian HP is huuuuuge aswell...

Edited January 12, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[pureasthedriven]

Yep. Did notice that. Will take a week to 10 days of normality, if it means a reload from the E/NE. Let's hope so.

Def worth watching with each run (I'm sure people are). So often you find these features getting shunted further and further out into FI but it's remained relatively in situ for this timeframe for a number of runs over a number of days. Plenty of energy revving up in the Atlantic at the same time, too, it must be said - but a curious winter so far and that is by any standards a big old block.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

[Southender]

Def worth watching with each run (I'm sure people are). So often you find these features getting shunted further and further out into FI but it's remained relatively in situ for this timeframe for a number of runs over a number of days. Plenty of energy revving up in the Atlantic at the same time, too, it must be said - but a curious winter so far and that is by any standards a big old block.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Yes, does look beefy. Still a lurning curve for me. But we could do with that Scandi High further South & West a smidgeon?

Edited January 12, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[pureasthedriven]

Yes, does look beefy. Still a lurning curve for me. But we could do with that Scandi High further South & West a smidgeon?

Oh yes, sure, don't get me wrong, that's not in the right place - but it's not far off. Of course, the ingredients to make 'not far off' change to bang on are complex in the extreme. Ideally, you want that placed further west and north. As that chart stands, the smart money would be on it sliding south under pressure of increased cyclogenesis and energy in the Atlantic, dragging deep cold into the continent; in turn this squeezes cyclogenesis way SE - in effect the block is not 'propped up'.

The issue there is a lack of northern blocking and that's as a result of the northern arm of the jet powering up. The 19-20th is perhaps a critical juncture actually and it'll be worth watching the jet forecasts - currently, it's progged to run all over us from around the 20th. Also be interesting to see what the Azores high does around the same time. As ever though, what the jet does will dictate. Powerful jet close to or over the UK, no favourable blocking for cold, full stop.

Edited January 12, 2010 by pureasthedriven

[Southender]

Oh yes, sure, don't get me wrong, that's not in the right place - but it's not far off. Of course, the ingredients to make 'not far off' change to bang on are complex in the extreme. Ideally, you want that placed further west and north. As that chart stands, the smart money would be on it sliding south under pressure of increased cyclogenesis and energy in the Atlantic, dragging deep cold into the continent; in turn this squeezes cyclogenesis way SE - in effect the block is not 'propped up'.

The issue there is a lack of northern blocking and that's as a result of the northern arm of the jet powering up. The 19-20th is perhaps a critical juncture actually and it'll be worth watching the jet forecasts - currently, it's progged to run all over us from around the 20th. Also be interesting to see what the Azores high does around the same time. As ever though, what the jet does will dictate. Powerful jet close to or over the UK, no favourable blocking for cold, full stop.

Thanks for that. Most informative and beneficial for my learning.

[jojobut]

When is it that we in the south east can expect Rain/Sleet/Snow, what ever it falls as...Been watching the radar and looking at posts and some people say around midnight, while in the SW they are saying bristol in 6 hours ??

Confussed and sorry for being Stupid lol

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yesterday I thought it would around the 25th Jan but now I am about 30/70 against due to overnight Models (Esp ECM) Dont even ask me about February as it could be anything tbh

I reckon favoured spots in the SE (Eg Elevation) could see a few Inches if they luck out on any heavier Precip, just a dusting or 1-2cm for most though, Tomorrow will be a depressing day once the Band moves through and we are left with a raw wind and bits and pieces of Sleet/Rain and Snow blowing in the air.

Rough IMHO

Paul S

Hi Paul

Yes, the snow over the next 24hrs in the grand scheme of things doesn't really look to amount to much and what does fall isn't likely to stick around at all. Latest BBC forecast suggests a temporary new light covering for a short time first thing tomorrow - but it could already be fast disappearing after breakfast

After the pause in the thaw yesterday, this has resumed quite noticeably and was underway first thing this morning. Hard to estimate but only a few cms left from the original approx 15cms that had accumulated here by the end of Saturdays heavy snow showers. Most of the roads are pretty clear now, and my own side road has growing patches of road and pavement surface visible again. The big snowman over the road that the neighbours built on Saturday is now listing at an angle.

Edited January 12, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[dallas]

I see the Meto have shifted their warnings further East

[pureasthedriven]

Thanks for that. Most informative and beneficial for my learning.

You're welcome, Sir. I should add that the jet close to the south of the uk can be very favourable for the north. Over the uk or around Iceland, bad all round for cold. Worth seeing the jet as a polar boundary, with colder air poleside and milder air southside. This is why in the south at least, we want the jet way to the south (or well, well north to the pole, which will do), as this puts us poleside of the jet (this most recent spell has been notable for the extremely southerly track of the jet - in fact, one could argue too far south as in essence, this is partly what scuppered our Sunday snow - cyclognesis will always be most potent at the thermal boundary). You can really see the jet revving up towards the end of the working week.

Instinct leads one to think that once the jet gets going, it gets going for a while. We'll have to see how it evolves though.

[Coast]

I see the Meto have shifted their warnings further East

London & South East England: Bracknell Forest Buckinghamshire E Sussex Hampshire Kent Medway Oxfordshire Reading Slough Southampton Surrey W Berkshire W Sussex Windsor + Maidenhead Wokingham

Heavy Snow Wed 13 Jan

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of Northern Ireland, southern and central England and North Wales.

A band of snow will move slowly northeastwards overnight and into Wednesday, gradually easing through the day. Accumulations of 1-3cm are likely in many places, perhaps with 5cm locally. The strong east to southeast wind is also likely to lead to drifting of snow.

Issued at: 1109 Tue 12 Jan

Seems to stil cover the same general area to me looking at local and SW warnings. I'm still thinking sleet for my location, gradually turning to a light sprinkling of snow further North on the way to work, then rain/more sleet by the end of the day

[Brocken Spectre]

Great motion satelite video of the approaching Mild v Warm battle

European Satelite Video Last 5 Days: The Approach of the Mild Party Pooper!

[Mike Storm]

^^ yeah that is good.

[dallas]

Cheers Coast, still time for things to change with regards to PPN intensity. I will be on (or not) the first train out tomorrow am, might be a interesting journey

[Southender]

Great motion satelite video of the approaching Mild v Warm battle

European Satelite Video Last 5 Days: The Approach of the Mild Party Pooper!

Yeah great video. Shows clearly it was game over when that front pushed up from France at the weekend.

[Coast]

Great motion satelite video of the approaching Mild v Warm battle

Very interesting video HW! SatRep at 11.15 this morning:

[MAF]

Cheers Coast, still time for things to change with regards to PPN intensity. I will be on (or not) the first train out tomorrow am, might be a interesting journey

Mmm my train is 0542, or, as you say, maybe not. unfortunately i have to come to work tomorrow. so if trains are no good i will have to enjoy the comforts of a bus

[dallas]

Mmm my train is 0542, or, as you say, maybe not. unfortunately i have to come to work tomorrow. so if trains are no good i will have to enjoy the comforts of a bus

It would be a nice to have a good parting shot of winter, of course just to ease through the short (I hope) mild spell

[staplehurst]

Oh Dear, mild ramper Darren Bett is doing the forecast on BBC One, and his first line so far on News Channel has been 'it will turn milder this weekend'.

Edited January 12, 2010 by staplehurst

[Guest archiesmummy]

i keep hearing on diff places that the middle of feb could get colder again after the brief mild spell, i know is a long way off, what peoples opinion on that?

sort of mid feb time......

Edited January 12, 2010 by archiesmummy

[Mac_SE]

Yeah great video. Shows clearly it was game over when that front pushed up from France at the weekend.

LS can you explain why? I always thought entrenched cold air with a low pushing in from SE meant a good 'ol dump... was the front too warm?

Thanks!

[MAF]

i keep hearing on diff places that the middle of feb could get colder again after the brief mild spell, i know is a long way off, what peoples opinion on that?

sort of mid feb time......

unfortunaltely i have trouble knowing what the day is today. let alone 4 weeks time

sorry, but i am not a great supporter of any forecasting that goes past 5 days, as the accuracy is very minimal. thats not to say i dont respect people who attempt LRF's.

[Jimmyh]

has anyone seen the future radar for London on the BBC graphics, still showing a lump of snow on it