London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

[clark3r]

NAE says yes...

look at the fax chart up to 48 hr looks like we could be in for a pasting with the snow maybe turning to rain in the south late morning onwards?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=48&carte=2000

[Discombobulation Man]

Quickie for the pro's here.

PPN looks to arrive around midnight Tues/Weds according to GFS (Which we know is progressive)

But with uppers around -3/-4, air temps of 0-2c and dp's around -1 (generally) is this favourable for snow?

I'm thinking hell yeah and game on IF the GFS materialises (Unlikely)

Yeah it should be in this setup because we'll still be drawing a continental feed. . . unless it all goes tits up.

Very interestingly the 6z this morning stalled the precipitation over London and SE for an extra few hours but it was a massive outlier - but now the 12z has sort of followed the trend by bringing us over here more into play, will be definitely game on if we can carry on trending towards the 06z outlier this morning and then maybe add a little bit more of an Easterly shunt to the precip band on top of that

It's all about the shortwave that develops up the channel as the Low comes into the SW approaches, need to see how it gets progged if it shows up on future runs. . .

EDIT - just seen the NAE chart you posted - defo game on now

Edited January 11, 2010 by Gulf Stream Hate Campaign Leader

[Rajeev Samant]

Met office shows heavy snow for tuesday night in NW london (Harrow) where i live. Do you think its true?

[Polar Bear]

Met office shows heavy snow for tuesday night in NW london (Harrow) where i live. Do you think its true?

based on this weeks events and none happening I would say no... but I am no expert at all and let the pro's on here advise as i trust them 100 million times more than the met office or BBC.

[Neilsouth]

based on this weeks events and none happening I would say no... but I am no expert at all and let the pro's on here advise as i trust them 100 million times more than the met office or BBC.

, probably a light dusting or sleet... remember kids don't always trust the met office

[xentrix]

Positives and Negatives

The Euro Model is having none of this and does not really erode the Block so keeps the precip out West. Best bet is to see what it says from the 18z Update

UKMO Fax is looking good and is probably somewhere between the 2 Models atm

GFS Pushes this band all the way through but as we know that Model is far too progressive against Blocking Scenarios and naturally it's output shows the outcome with the precip way too far east if you want a sensible answer.

So the 18z's are going to be pretty Interesting tonight, although I am expecting the Middle ground to win out meaning C London being the furthest East for the precip as it stands right now.

Paul S

Thx for the explanation ...

[Polar Bear]

, probably a light dusting or sleet... remember kids don't always trust the met office

...can you tell I am sulking ...?

.when is the 18z out?.....

Edited January 11, 2010 by Polar Bear

[West Sussex Kate]

:lol: It's a waiting game!

Edited January 11, 2010 by Westsussex1

[Southender]

...can you tell I am sulking ...?

.when is the 18z out?.....

About 21:30 hrs.

[Polar Bear]

About 21:30 hrs.

Thanks leighshrimper you star. ...I shall sign off and come back and see what is happenin. lovely.

[<<Ryan>>]

THIS IS AN ADVANCED WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR WALES AND SW ENGLAND IN PARTICULAR FROM TUESDAY PM AND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING

During Tuesday afternoon, an Atlantic frontal system will move slowly northeast bringing heavy snow inland across SW England and southern half of Wales then spreading further NE across the rest of Wales, N. Ireland and across the parts of Midlands and central southern England overnight into Wednesday morning before slowly dying out in the afternoon/evening, up to 5-15cm of fresh snowfall can be expected widely, over higher ground of SW England and Wales further fresh snowfall accumulations of 15-25cm are possible. The northern and eastern extent of the heaviest snow during Wednesday is still a little uncertain, but at the moment areas south and west of a line roughly from Liverpool to Eastbourne are likely to see the heaviest of snowfall. Outside of this area maybe a couple of cm of fresh snow can be expected during Wednesday as the front continues slowly northeast across central and eastern areas. Away from these areas, further snowfall is possible across the Highlands of Scotland and over the mountains of N England and N. Ireland bringing further accumulations.

Hmmmmmmmmmm

[Discombobulation Man]

Things have changed a bit since this morning when it was issued,I bet they expand the warnings for Wednesday if things firm up this evening.

BTW excellent ECM

Even though a couple of mildish days at the weekend, the block strikes back with a hint of a proper reload of cold into FI

[rmc1987]

I'm not too sure about this snow for Tuesday night/Wednesday. It seems FI enough the day before......as a lot of us saw the other day!

Edit; Although there's an advisory covering over here. I'd expect us to get a sleet/rain mix! Further North/West more likely to see any snow.

Edited January 11, 2010 by rmc1987

[Discombobulation Man]

Just read Nick F's update regarding Wednesday and maybe it doesn't look so good for us after all

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59644-new-year-cold-spell/page__st__17#entry1738646

Still lots to play for but dont fancy sleet

[<<Ryan>>]

Well.......been so quiet today been checking things on n off all day and its basically dead hope a few more people get involved tommorow

[Yellow Army]

A matter of waiting once again, think it'll be down to a lot of Now Casting to see how much we get and in what form. Should be interesting and hopefully a good end to this 'Freeze'.

[Bluebreezer54]

based on this weeks events and none happening I would say no... but I am no expert at all and let the pro's on here advise as i trust them 100 million times more than the met office or BBC.

In fairness the forecasts werent a million miles out. In this area ( 5 miles from Harrow ) we had almost continuous precipitation from late morning Sunday til 0330am Monday morning. Admittedly it was mostly light, and veered between very light snow, sleet, and rain at times, but there was a also a spell of prolonged moderate snow from about 0030-0330am Monday morning. We had a further covering of 2cms despite temps hovering just above 0c throughout. All the predictions I saw were for a possible 2-5 cms so pretty much spot on.

It was always a difficult 'event' to call, as many on NW had been saying for some time. Anyone expecting 20cms of snow would of course be dissapointed, but I dont think that was really ever forecast for most parts of London and the South East, apart from one or two hyped up newspaper headlines.

I think overnight Tuesday/Wednesday will be pretty similar tbh, though the further east the less likeliehood of snow imo. London may see a dusting, though of course, things can ( and often do ) change in a very short space of time.

[yamkin]

So does anyone think we might just get something in Croydon Surrey. Seem to be right on the edge. Would be nice to go out of this cold snap with a bang ruther than a cold thaw

Yes :lol:

[Dave Clarke]

Paul Blight on UKww reckons we could get a few cm's, with a few isolated places like Surrey getting some more. (Up on our front end)

[staplehurst]

18z NAE suggests 1-3cm widely across most of our region, maybe as much as 4-5cm over Hampshire.

[rmc1987]

Oh so could I expect something here in East Berkshire then? Other than sleet....? I'd have thought I was too far East!!

[staplehurst]

Oh so could I expect something here in East Berkshire then? Other than sleet....? I'd have thought I was too far East!!

Depends on the complicated setup I guess, as explained by Nick F earlier. I should rephrase, the NAE suggests 1-3 mm widely, whether that falls entirely as snow or not is up for debate...

[Bluebreezer54]

Yes

Needless to say the extraordinary snowfall which has apparently concentrated very much on Croydon in the last few weeks and all but buried it under a mountain of snow.....despite the gritters being out in force around the clock.....will again deliver the goods this Wednesday. Probably around 10.15am, but possibly 5 minutes either side of that. Immediately surrounding areas can look forward to........at best a dusting.

[Great Plum]

Well, this has to be the slowest thaw in history... the temps around here didn't get above 0.6c today and we still have a lot of lying snow - any thaw seems to be mostly restricted still to roofs, cars and roads atm...

It would be nice to see some more snow to help top up the reserves tomorrow night! If it carries on like this, we may still have some snow after the mild 'blip' at the weekend!

[snowray]

If the occlusion was to stall at all, some lucky areas could see way more than a couple of cms, more like 10-15cms on the Eastern boundary, maybe more!

By the way, its certainly the sort of set up that could produce a stalling front with the block holding on and maybe even fighting back.

Edited January 11, 2010 by snowray