North West Cold Spell Discussion

[damianslaw]

Surprised there have been no posts in this thread today given the potential that exists for some snowfall later in the week.

Keep an eye on developments to the NW as we get to Thursday. Signs that a shortwave of sorts will develop in the polar maritime flow and signs of a shallow low developing and trough/front feature pushing down to the west of the region. Places to the east of this feature could see some snowfall, ECM and UKMO are showing signs of such a feature developing. Thereafter it is looking like a NNW flow as opposed to direct N flow at least initially, convection is likely over the Irish Sea with some snow showers I imagine.

[cheshire snow]

Surprised there have been no posts in this thread today given the potential that exists for some snowfall later in the week.

Keep an eye on developments to the NW as we get to Thursday. Signs that a shortwave of sorts will develop in the polar maritime flow and signs of a shallow low developing and trough/front feature pushing down to the west of the region. Places to the east of this feature could see some snowfall, ECM and UKMO are showing signs of such a feature developing. Thereafter it is looking like a NNW flow as opposed to direct N flow at least initially, convection is likely over the Irish Sea with some snow showers I imagine.

Indeed

A very intresting development again on the 0z Fri night into Sat Morning giving a snow event in NW

England,my only worry is that the way the models are perforing atm Fri/Sat is probably FI thats why there

is no one posting atm.

C.S

[LiverBird]

Indeed

A very intresting development again on the 0z Fri night into Sat Morning giving a snow event in NW

England,my only worry is that the way the models are perforing atm Fri/Sat is probably FI thats why there

is no one posting atm.

C.S

Did someone mention snow????

What parts of our region does it look likely to be crossing?

[les1234]

Surprised there have been no posts in this thread today given the potential that exists for some snowfall later in the week.

Keep an eye on developments to the NW as we get to Thursday. Signs that a shortwave of sorts will develop in the polar maritime flow and signs of a shallow low developing and trough/front feature pushing down to the west of the region. Places to the east of this feature could see some snowfall, ECM and UKMO are showing signs of such a feature developing. Thereafter it is looking like a NNW flow as opposed to direct N flow at least initially, convection is likely over the Irish Sea with some snow showers I imagine.

I'm not getting to excited about it yet ,all tho it would be nice,am fed up at looking at all the green fields and hills.

[stoke weather watch]

Is it not too warm for any Snow?

I cant see it coming to be Honest.

[Backtrack]

Well it hasnt gone above 3c here today, it certainly feels cold enough for snow. 2.8c here atm.

[greybing]

3 degrees celcius here in eccles manchester at16.50............does anyone have any thoughts on the severity and legnth of the coming forecast cold spell.......i and i'm sure many others would like a return to the cold we experienced earlier in the month and the second half of december

[cheshire snow]

3 degrees celcius here in eccles manchester at16.50............does anyone have any thoughts on the severity and legnth of the coming forecast cold spell.......i and i'm sure many others would like a return to the cold we experienced earlier in the month and the second half of december

Going of tonights 18z keep a look out for the feature Thurs Night/Fri morning if you believe the GFS it is

going to give us a snow event,obviously at this stage PPN amounts locataions etc will be firmed up in the

next24-48hrs,looking at the models tonight to my untrained eye it would appear this brief northerly could

deliver to more locations than the normal cosatal areas which is the norm with this kind of setup,looks like

quite a few disturbances could give some locations surprise snowfall,maybe someone more experienced

than me will be able to confirm my post.

C.S

[snowdrifter]

Going of tonights 18z keep a look out for the feature Thurs Night/Fri morning if you believe the GFS it is

going to give us a snow event,obviously at this stage PPN amounts locataions etc will be firmed up in the

next24-48hrs,looking at the models tonight to my untrained eye it would appear this brief northerly could

deliver to more locations than the normal cosatal areas which is the norm with this kind of setup,looks like

quite a few disturbances could give some locations surprise snowfall,maybe someone more experienced

than me will be able to confirm my post.

C.S

Wouldn't say I'm more experienced than you CS, but i can't help being reminded of the 5th January event. Disturbances in the flow and troughs are likely. I will be renewing my radar subs tomorrow I think. Exciting times it would seem.

[trickydicky]

The usual shenanigans unfolding in the Model Discussion thread. On one hand you have GP saying that a block to our west/north west and north west winds are what the back ground global weather thingys are saying is most likely. On the other you have everyone else dismissing this and saying that 'instict' points to a more likely easterly - with the resulting snow being most likely around the East Midlands, East Anglia and certain parts of Suffolk, Essex and Kent (i.e where they live). This has been a recurring theme this winter, with widespread predictions of incessant snow for Englands Eastern & Southern counties before and just after the New Year. We all know what happened then, the North and West got loads of snow, so I see this as a good sign.

Edited January 26, 2010 by trickydicky

[Iceaxecrampon]

Snow flurry here in Preston - lasted about 30 seconds

[les1234]

Just cold and gray here today,but after tomorrow things should start looking interesting .Lets hope the nly does us proud and gives us a good dumping and leaves nothing for them greedy southerns.

[Backtrack]

4.0c - I want some snow!

Sick of the green. :unsure:

Can we expect the upcoming cold spell to be anything like the last?

[les1234]

Meto just issued a warning to police and other emergency services about possible wintry weather for Thursday Friday in the north west affecting most areas for a time.

[LiverBird]

Just cold and gray here today,but after tomorrow things should start looking interesting .Lets hope the nly does us proud and gives us a good dumping and leaves nothing for them greedy southerns.

I hope you're right Les - I'm sick of these misty, grey, nondescript days. Over the weeked the NetWeather forecast for today showed a slim chance of snow showers but it's back to 0% now. It certainly feels colder today so I hope that northerly you're talking about delivers!

[snowdrifter]

Come on fellow north-westerners - we stand just as much a chance of getting something decent from this coming northerly (maybe more than the last one??) - I feeling like ramping this up but don't want to jinx it! Anyone got some thoughts? Got to go out now, but looking fwd to sharing in some snow crossing our region again soon.

[Thunder Snow]

Just updated my forecast, rain for some and then some snow for some. Details are still uncertain, but it could be good for our area.

[damianslaw]

Just updated my forecast, rain for some and then some snow for some. Details are still uncertain, but it could be good for our area.

Yes I'm watching this feature for Thursday overnight, good chance much of Cumbria could see some general snowfall, how heavy who knows, but great timing, BBC showed the snow just now on the forecast but also said it could be cold rain. Fingers crossed we wake up to a lovely blanket of snow on Friday morning... Saturday could be a special winters day with snow crisp and even on the ground and clear sparkling skies with sunshine, my ideal winter Saturday... before heavy snow later on Sunday hopefully!

[snowdrifter]

Yes I'm watching this feature for Thursday overnight, good chance much of Cumbria could see some general snowfall, how heavy who knows, but great timing, BBC showed the snow just now on the forecast but also said it could be cold rain. Fingers crossed we wake up to a lovely blanket of snow on Friday morning... Saturday could be a special winters day with snow crisp and even on the ground and clear sparkling skies with sunshine, my ideal winter Saturday... before heavy snow later on Sunday hopefully!

The BBC local NW forecast was v poor for snow potential - mentioned wintry showers only, but I don't think they know what's going to happen and are almost nowcasting. Slight wind variations and trough development will change their forecast with maybe half a day to go. This isn't wishful thinking - I think its where its at atm.

[Snow free zone]

Morning, i'm posting again so the weather must be getting colder again

Not really getting overly excited about anything yet. Heard the NW forecast on radio Lancs this morning, rain with a bit of snow over high ground, then for the weekend mostly dry with the odd wintry shower on the coast. What I did notice though was that she did not even mention the temperatures.

[chris78]

sounds like only minor risk for us in the region at the mo .....sound abiut riight

[snowdrifter]

sounds like only minor risk for us in the region at the mo .....sound about right

Hi Chris, I may be wrong but I am confident of an upgrade for our region. There will be unforecastable situations such as troughs.

See the sat24 pic that I saved from the night before the last heavy fall that I have annotated... These summarise my current thoughts/hopes!!

Edited January 27, 2010 by snowdrifter

[damianslaw]

After yesterdays BBC forecasts showing high snow potential for this part of the NW, now it just looks like rain below about 600m, uppers are going to be too high, its a shame, I was looking forward to a white wonderland over the weekend. I sort of wish the BBC hadn't given us such false hopes.

Snow prospects for the foreseeable future in the region are low, chance of a snow shower near the coast possibly and probably one or two showers over the Lakeland Fells and Pennines, but it looks a predominantly dry northerly. Still some nice sunny days are on the way, the past 2 weeks have been abysmal for sunshine.

[Thunder Snow]

Forecast updated, and i dont think snow is going to be of cause for concern.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think we could see some snow showers this weekend because it looks like conditions would be right for snow unless it is mainly dry over at least part of this weekend (uppers etc.) - correct me if I am wrong. Also if we don't get snow will there be some hard frosts over this weekend what sort of temperatures could we expect (I am from South Liverpool btw) - could -4 or -5 be possible this weekend for us because if those skies are going to be clear it is going to go very cold isn't it? Also a question to the guys who live in my vicinity (like HC and Stephen Prudence etc.) - when did you last have an air frost and how long have you been "frost free" for as I haven't noticed one for over a week). Anyway I would expect a run of frost free night to broken this weekend. Anyway further down the line would you expect another major snow even for the North West in February, and with some predicting a cold February from model signals etc at the moment does anyone see the potential for a February 1996 style event this month? - that would be a great finale to a great winter if it where to happen!

Luke