North West Cold Spell Discussion

[Spurry]

Why do we still have a NW cold spell thread?...i'm a cold/snow fan but as far as i'm concerned the cold spell is dead(it's unbelievably mild here today 5.9c), and despite some straw clutching on the model Discussion thread ,there is little to suggest it's going to return in the near future...i would love to se it return but it looks to me that the big HP block to the east is being pushed further east by the Atlantic weather systems and will continue for a while yet...

i'm just waiting for spring and summer to return now

Edited January 16, 2010 by Spurry

[Cheese Rice]

Why do we still have a NW cold spell thread?...i'm a cold/snow fan but as far as i'm concerned the cold spell is dead(it's unbelievably mild here today 5.9c), and despite some straw clutching on the model Discussion thread ,there is little to suggest it's going to return in the near future...i would love to se it return but it looks to me that the big HP block to the east is being pushed further east by the Atlantic weather systems and will continue for a while yet...

i'm just waiting for spring and summer to return now

There is plenty of potential for snow coming up, there is Wednesday and Thursday which could both be major snow events. There are warings for icy roads, which proves there is cold about.

Edit: 5.9c unbelievably mild? That is below average.

Edited January 16, 2010 by 10123

[Thunder Snow]

I agree there COULD be some snow around next week, i hate people that say they cant wait for summer and that lol. Winter is winter summer is summer we cant change that lmao.

[Spurry]

There is plenty of potential for snow coming up, there is Wednesday and Thursday which could both be major snow events. There are warings for icy roads, which proves there is cold about.

Edit: 5.9c unbelievably mild? That is below average.

It's all relative , ok 5.9c may be ABOUT average(according to the 30yr average) but it's not cold , especially when you compare it to max's of -2c barely a week ago

I agree there COULD be some snow around next week, i hate people that say they cant wait for summer and that lol. Winter is winter summer is summer we cant change that lmao.

I love the cold and snow , but when the winter only promises dull/damp wet/windy weather then my thoughts start to turn to my favourite weather of all ....HOT SUN

[LiverBird]

Why do we still have a NW cold spell thread?...i'm a cold/snow fan but as far as i'm concerned the cold spell is dead(it's unbelievably mild here today 5.9c), and despite some straw clutching on the model Discussion thread ,there is little to suggest it's going to return in the near future...i would love to se it return but it looks to me that the big HP block to the east is being pushed further east by the Atlantic weather systems and will continue for a while yet...

i'm just waiting for spring and summer to return now

Spurry, do you think that's it for winter now then, staying this mild for the next few months until spring? I thought the predictions were for a cold, harsh winter but I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as some here and may have got the wrong end of the stick. I'd be disappointed not to get some more snow out of winter though instead of these boring, grey, wet days.

[Thunder Snow]

My latest forecast has been updated

[Spurry]

Spurry, do you think that's it for winter now then, staying this mild for the next few months until spring? I thought the predictions were for a cold, harsh winter but I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as some here and may have got the wrong end of the stick. I'd be disappointed not to get some more snow out of winter though instead of these boring, grey, wet days.

If i'm truthfull then i don't know !! ,

what we have had recently has been remarkable ,certainly more than in the last 21yrs combined( i moved up to the NW 21 yrs ago from B'ham)... people more knowledgable than me are saying that the signs predict that the cold weather will return , looking at the models my opinion is i'm not convinced it's gonna happen within the next couple of weeks , maybe we'll get some transient snow/cold , but the Atlantic looks as if it's powering up and the cold block is a bit too far east to benefit us (especially in the west of the country), i hope i'm wrong but unless something dramatically changes then it looks to me as if we may have seen the last of the prolonged cold, but as i said , i hope i'm wrong :o

Just to say , this is gut instinct and experience ...there's nothing scientific involved in my view (other than what the current models are showing)

Edited January 16, 2010 by Spurry

[NW_Blackburn]

Weather advisory out for Wednesday with heavy snow. accumulations up to 10cm.

Shall see what changes over the coming days.

[snowdrifter]

Weather advisory out for Wednesday with heavy snow. accumulations up to 10cm.

Shall see what changes over the coming days.

Hi guys,

I fully expected the meto to take down the advisory today, but I guess they're covering their backs. However, having read the model discussion thread, it looks like 2m temps, uppers and of course ppn will be right FOR SOME. I reckon that the more east and elevated anyone is, the greater the chances of snow from this. I rate my own at about 0% atm unless there is a significant westward movement of cold.

[iand61]

All's quiet on the North Western Front tonight folks.

Not really surprising with the weather we have now compared to what we've just had.

A bit like the first couple of days back at work after a two weeks holiday in the sun although, unlike the holiday, where it's usually followed by a year before you're back at the airport, we still have a couple of months left where proper winter can rear it's head again.

I personally can't see the severity of the cold and snow returning again this winter but that doesn't mean we are done with the seasonal stuff.

Far from it in fact: i think that we are entering a period of what could be classed as typical old fashioned winter weather.

Polar Maritime air giving coldish but not bitter temperatures with frequent weather fronts crossing from West to East.

If conditions are favourable then heavy snow rather than rain and frosts on many nights and the beauty about this set up is that the Northwest is one part of the country which would benefit.

On what do i base my views; nothing really other than a few looks at the various models on which i'm no expert and comparisons with the winters of my youth when they all seemed to follow a freeze, thaw, freeze pattern rather than the 3 months of constant mush we have experienced over the vast majority of the last 25 years.

This is probably just hopecasting but i do have a feeling that this winter could still hold a few aces up it's sleeve.

Ian

[damianslaw]

As with all snow events it is going to be a case of wait and see until the event is upon us, at this stage I feel it could go either way with snow being reserved for higher ground above about 300m only, or most of the region at low level will see some snowfall. Difficult to call how heavy, the two key factors which will determine where and how much snow the region will get is:

amount of cold uppers over the region, the longer these have time to embed the greater chance of snow increasing its longevity as well and aiding any rain to turn quickly to snow as evaporative cooling takes affect

position of the front and how long it takes to cross the region, it looks like the front will stall somewhat against the colder air, if this occurs over the region again this will enhance chances of snow.

For places above 300m almost certain snow will fall.

This could upgrade or downgrade near the time with equal chances of both happening, won't be Tuesday until things become clearer, I don't expect the Met to chance the current advisory tomorrow.

[SP1986]

Its balmy today, snow if as far away from my train of thought as it could be.. maximum so far today 10.1C so feels really mild and springlike.

[meerkat63]

6.6c here.

A fairly dark, miserable afternoon now with low cloud descending to the foot of the hills. Patches of snow still around although it has mostly disappeared.

Torrential rain and severe gales would be better than this!

[dodge]

Its balmy today, snow if as far away from my train of thought as it could be.. maximum so far today 10.1C so feels really mild and springlike.

Yep, it does seem like it would have to go through a quick change in temperatures. Feels very mild at the moment, besides I can see this front stalling, and then rapidly fizzling out, like they all seem to do when coming up against cold air, and tracking a fair bit overland.

Give me the Snowy Irish Streamers any day lol

[Mark.C]

Anyone any thoughts on tues night/weds regarding the possible snow event here in the north west?

[iand61]

Anyone any thoughts on tues night/weds regarding the possible snow event here in the north west?

Looking at the fact that the MetO have downgraded their advisory for our region and the way that they have performed during the recent wintry spell i would say that we are in for an absolute pasting - two feet of level snow, 20 feet drifts and entire towns cut off.

Sorry got my feet mixed up with millimetres and we'll probably be lucky to see that.

I can't see anyone in the region getting more that a little wet snow at best with even the higher parts, Pennines Peak District etc not having enough to cause problems.

Just can't see where the low temperatures are coming from and certainly Wednesday's precipitaion doesn't look heavy enough to cause many problems even it it was snow.

That said though, all may change with tomorrows runs and the advisory may be upgraded again.

Ian

[Weather-history]

It looks pretty much a non-event for our region.

[snowdrifter]

It looks pretty much a non-event for our region.

Totally agreed - and always thought they were covering too many bases anyway. May even be not much of an event for those who are in the remaining areas. However, today's UKMO further outlook (days 6-15) does provide potential with this statement:

"From Wednesday (27th) wintry showers are expected to ease in the east, with rain, sleet or snow developing across western and northwestern parts. Temperatures are expected to be below normal, and perhaps very cold in the east, with overnight frosts likely and an associated risk of ice in places."

Loads of variables in there, but its better than non-descript mild mush. Can't see a repeat of the last spell, but westward-bound HP and eastward bound (possibly stalling) front is always interesting. Needs several more runs yet to get excited, and whenever I hear the phrase rain, sleet or snow its like saying 'we don't know, and it depends where you live'. But, certainly watch this space time...

Edited January 19, 2010 by snowdrifter

[Thunder Snow]

Ive Updated my forecast

[cheshire snow]

Well the PPN has just reched South Cheshire and yes its RAINING...thought this was meant to miss us today?

Another fun day for Wales/Midlands/Surrey/Gloucestershire with 5-7cm snow been reported....just about our luck for

NW England..........

C.S

[meerkat63]

Cloudy and dry here today. Strong winds early morning, easing considerably during the day.

[Thunder Snow]

Forecast updated guys.

[HotCuppa]

Interestingly I am expecting temps to climb even higher before this month is done, with February being very spring like. Hope not but hey we had 2 weeks of winter and 1 week of very cold temps and now we pay the price for that lol

Just think it was only a few days ago there was real promise of nothing because that is all it was for this region.

Temps easily cracked 10C today and they will crack it again tomorrow no doubt, overnight temp 4C..hardly freezing or icy now is it lol

Edited January 21, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Weather-history]

.

Temps easily cracked 10C today

The uppers don't support such temperatures for today, infact no forecast suggest temperatures that high.

[dodge]

It's a long time since I've seen double figure temps here.

Going back to the model thread, it looks like focus will switch too the East/South East for the first part of next week, as we get some form of an easterly. However even people in those area's are not getting too overjoyed yet, as how potent this easterly will be, is still to be confirmed.

Then, maybe, just maybe there might be a hint of a northerly towards the end of next week, which could bring our area's into play. All that is a long way out though. In the immediate future, it's rain, then dry, then getting colder .... then who knows?