Cold Spell Discussion

[stephenjlynch]

<br />Right now due to the current set up the science of weather modeling is virtually impossible - If you look further than about 24 - 48 hours you are probably wasting your time cause it'll all be different on the next set!<br />

<br /><br /><br />

I know - isn't it great?!? I'm sure that most people would rather see an easterly nailed on, but if the next best thing is complete uncertainty with the models then I'd rather have that than a nailed on south-westerly.

Cheers

[Skyhi]

As a newbie, I'm still lost in all this 'flippin' and 'changing' of the models and runs, enough to mek anyone dizzy !!...do I take it that generally, we still dont know what to expect in terms of any forthcoming 'pattern' or favourable agreement of the weather? Incidentally, wet snow here in Huddersfield, then rain, then wet snow again!!..it feels cold but not sure how cold. Also, is the Meto's forcast for heavy snow on wednesday to be relied upon?

[dale leigh]

hi i don'nt normally post on here but my uncle works for the griting services and they get updates on the weather and he has said there is no sign in the next 2 weeks of any really cold weather just the odd trancient snow avent. he also said they expect feb to be quite mild and mobile. i beleive the met office supply them with the info. but having said this who knows because the weather can change so quickly. dale. manchester.

[keithlucky]

I cant see what all the doom and gloom on charts today, the signs are there for the cold spell the rain come snow isent going to reach northern scotland , surely thats earlier sign thats pressure is quiet high over the north,plus the snow tommorow is further south than forecaste ,all looking good for next week.

[igloo]

the jet is certainly back home a spell of mild wet and windy weather is not the end of the world im sure we will have a spell of cold weather before the months out but looking at the charts it looks more like november than february

[smhouston]

It's snowing here :-D

[Thunder Snow]

Well heres my forecast, seems the MET have updated there weather watch and brought down some of the totals.

Cold With Snow For Some

During the next few days we are going to see mild air try to move up from the South, and with cold air moving down from the North theres going to be a battle. Snow is going to be a concern for Northern England/Scotland/Northern Ireland and some Central and Eastern areas for a time tomorrow afternoon and into the evening hours.

Back to today and its a mixed bag of weather, with some wintry showers for Northern areas of Scotland these will be heavy at times with accumulations over the higher routes and possibly lower levels for a time.

For Southern Scotland most of this mornings cloud should have moved South, leaving a mostly bright afternoon but feeling cold. For Northern Ireland i think it will remain cloudy with some rain showers at times, these possibly wintry over the highest hills. For Northern England after a cloudy and wet start, the cloud and showers will push Southwards. These may turn wintry as the front begins to clear.

For Wales/Southern areas/The South West and the South East it will be a mostly cloudy and a damp end to the day and for the overnight period for most of these areas. As we move towards dawn a front will push in from the South West, bringing a spell of rain to Wales/Southern areas/The South West and the South East.

For Central areas of England it will be a damp/cloudy and cold end to the day, but as we move towards the overnight period the cloud and rain will keep moving towards the South.

Now for Scotland/Ireland/Central/Eastern areas of England and Northern England where rain/sleet or snow has fallen ice will be a risk through tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow a band of rain will begin to move in from the South west, this will travel towards the North East during the day and a battle between mild and cold will begin. For the South West/Southern Britain and the South East it will be a damp day through-out with the odd heavier burst possible, but i don't think snow will be any concern for these areas. For Wales it will be again mostly rain, with some snow possible over the Northern hills of Wales. However im not ruling out some wintriness to low lying areas, it all depends how for the cold air gets. For Northern Ireland there will snow at first, giving a small covering in places. However the snow will start to turn back to rain as the milder air moves in.

For Northern England and Southern Scotland it will be a cold start to the day, with an early frost. As we move through the morning and into the afternoon it will begin to cloud over, snow is likely to fall over these areas giving totals of 2-5cm to lower ground and as much as 10cm over the hills. The snow will then move over Northern Scotland turning lighter as it does, then the band of snow will cross over the mountains of Northern England and then into Eastern England overnight giving a further covering in places.

Further ahead the band of snow will move through fairly quickly during Wednesday evening leaving some clear skies, so it may turn icy for a time where snow has fallen. Then i think it will turn milder from the South West, with further band of rain moving in from the South West.

Weather Watches can be seen in my sig blog.

[Liam J]

-0.6c here now and icy after the rain and snow we had earlier, nice looking satellite images interesting the feature moving into the northern isles just now

http://www.sat24.com/gb

[keithlucky]

the jet is certainly back home a spell of mild wet and windy weather is not the end of the world im sure we will have a spell of cold weather before the months out but looking at the charts it looks more like november than february

Fair enough what you say but why do the met and other forecasters still say cold to very cold next week , how are we experts and they all naff!

[The Weather Dragon]

The 'Jay Wynne Curse' a new meteorological term

[Thunder Snow]

Hmmm on the latest bbc online forecast, it seemed most of the snow fizzled over Northern England. So i think its gonna be another hit and miss event.

[keithlucky]

Just seen latest forecaste high pressure builds from the northeast saturday turning colder and drier this weekend the met seems to be certain of a colder weather a gradual cooling down taking place.The models are all over the place but the met have been constane in there support of easterley developing this weekend.

Edited February 2, 2010 by keithlucky

[disco-barry]

Yes they are all over the place at the moment, messy picture out there but at the moment an improving picture in terms of lower temps.

[The PIT]

Well I've never had this problem before. The water in the rain guage is frozen so I can't measure this morning. Pretty sure it neve rhappened to my father when he did recordiung either.

[johnholmes]

yes that is a rare one Pit-in 40 years in Met I encountered it twice!

[dewei]

Ian Fergusson

nick2702, on 03 February 2010 - 07:52 , said:

Snow? Today? Yowm 'avin a larf aint ya?

No.

Already 2cm+ wet snow reliably reported over some uplands of Glos. The WBFL is lower than initial NAE expectations and we modified forecasts this morning accordingly to bring the (transient) snow risk further southwards in the Midlands.

This post has been edited by Ian Fergusson: 23 minutes ago

Weather Blog: www.bbc.co.uk/ianfergusson

Ian Fergusson on the midlands thread confirms snow in Glos. so transient snow is likely for most of the Midlands now. I guessed that would happen when the tenp overnight fell to 0c instead of the forecast 3c!

[Bristawl Si]

Ian Fergusson on the midlands thread confirms snow in Glos. so transient snow is likely for most of the Midlands now. I guessed that would happen when the tenp overnight fell to 0c instead of the forecast 3c!

And just to confirm that this cold air near or over the British isles is reluctant to reduce its influence, it's just started snowing here in North Bristol, after early rain - totally unexpected this far south - i reckon some of you in the Midlands and towards the East may be in for an interesting day.

[Freezius Bluebirdus]

2oC in the Forest of Dean. Just started snowing heavy now (9.00 am).

[summer blizzard]

I personally think that somewhere could get hit a lot worse than the Met Office expect, with their 2cm to 8cm prediction, because looking at the radar, precipitation across Ireland is getting heavier and heavier, precipitation is slightly further north than forecast and strengthening is working its way down the band, while not the worst snow we could see, i do think higher parts may be looking at close to 20cm out of this in localised spots.

Also, everywhere north of Birningham are still below 0C.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Will be interesting to hear reports from Belfast as the worst is to come yet, though they are reporting snow.

Flash warnings to be issued??

Edited February 3, 2010 by summer blizzard

[Snowyowl9]

Dropped to 0c last night colder than expected as it was cloudy.

And yes today has brought more snow and the 6th wednesday this winter got a slight covering only 1.1c now but with light mizzle,and a light S/SE wind.

This time last year the max was 1.1c in a much snowier and colder set-up.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090203.gif

[Liam J]

currently 1.0c now after a low of -2.5c, clouded over alot more now hoping for some snow from this band if the temp stays low and no higher than 2c...

edit: 0.8c now DP -2c

Edited February 3, 2010 by james12

[Storm Animal]

Had some snowfall last night on back edge of rainbelt, gave a slight dusting of snow which is still clinging onto grassy surfaces at present. Was colder than I expected last night (-3.8oC when I went to bed) Still pretty cold, but temp has risen to 1.7oC at present. Hope it stays cold enough for snow, that band of precipitation seems pretty heavy on met office radar & slow moving.....i'll keep you posted

[CLH the red dragon]

progged to be 9 here today.

Currently closer to 3.5.

[West Sussex Kate]

any worthwhile prognosis of what'll happen towards the second half of next week has the caveat of 'low confidence' stamped all over it in big letters.

LOW CONFIDENCE! for next week!!!! :lol:

............Anyway I think personally a cold spell will come our way and within the next 48 hours things are going to become more certain.

Edited February 3, 2010 by Westsussex1

[La Bise]

Is that date of 8th feb as the trigger date for cold fun still a possibility?