Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 24

[LomondSnowstorm]

If we were to split in two, why not just the Highlands and Islands / Lowlands and Souther Uplands? Approximately half and half, topography separated out quite well too

Very nice geographically, but in terms of population it would be very uneven. Still, I doubt that really matters when weather forecasting!

[Gilly]

Another very cold morning......8am and temps -8C

As Kold Weather said previously still too much scatter and nothing reliable outside the 48hour time frame. My guess is, it will remain cold for the next week.

[Guest]

Freezing fog, yet again. -6C at Glasgow Airport, Tulloch Bridge reached -16C which is not half bad for the third week of February.

I am liking the look of the overnight GFS run for Sunday into Monday. Local forecast is for "Torrential" snow at one point early on Monday. Unlikely to verify but nice to see

Very nice geographically, but in terms of population it would be very uneven. Still, I doubt that really matters when weather forecasting!

I would go further than Mondy suggests and split it into 3 or 4 parts and I suppose it could be split up in line with what the prevelant weather type is rather than population or strict geography.

For example, does Aberdeen ever have similar weather to what we would experience in the far west of the central belt??

The Met-O split Scotland into three for their mapped climate averages:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/regmapavge.html#

Also, the region sizes used by the Met-O above split Scotland and England into roughly the same sized units with a ratio of 3 Scotland regions to 5 England regions matching land size of 0.6 Scotlands to every 1 England. Surely not a co-incidence!!

Edited February 19, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Gilly]

Agreed the climate in Scotland is as varied as it is between North of England, Kent and Cornwall. Scotland would need to be divided into preferably four sectors for forecasting.

A few beefy showers around our coastlines Some approaching Moray now.

[Blizzardo]

Up an hour ago to de ice the car and it was -7c, clear and frosty. Freezing fog now rolling in with visibility down to about 100 metres.

[Hiya]

Well after a week of this dry low pressure things are starting to look up for the late weekend. I'll even allow myself to get marginally excited.

If we were to split in two, why not just the Highlands and Islands / Lowlands and Souther Uplands? Approximately half and half, topography separated out quite well too

That isn't a good map for geography!

Look at that imaginary loch where Blairgowrie is that apparently the Tay flows through! Glè mhaslach. (on the maker of the map)

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well after a week of this dry low pressure things are starting to look up for the late weekend. I'll even allow myself to get marginally excited.

That isn't a good map for geography!

Look at that imaginary loch where Blairgowrie is that apparently the Tay flows through! Glè mhaslach. (on the maker of the map)

Aye, and you could sail the QE2 all the way up the Firth of Forth to Stirling....

-1.2 C. Frosty and sunny.

Is that some heavy showers off the forth just edging slightly eastwards?

[blitzen]

Morning. Some quite impressive low temps for some areas overnight I see. The lowest we reached was -3.6c. Currently -2.6c dewpoints -4.2c with a north westerly wind. There does look, still, as if there could be a snow event on Sunday through Tuesday. Keeping everything crossed!

[blitzen]

Interesting. That's the second run with a snow risk for this area today. Looks like afternoon through to midnight. If anything, it has slightly increased in intensity: Sorry, for some reason my browser wont let me upload the precipitation chart!

[GraemeB]

Wow - that was a cold one in Stirling last night - I think it peaked at about -7/-8..

There seems to be pretty good confidence over the snow event on Sunday - so we'll see if it pans out, I note though that it's all been brought forward by 24hours or so, so there will probably be more change/downgrade/upgrade...

If I'm right, the last SWly at this time of year brought a major dumping a couple of years ago, coincidentally, that was on a Sunday as well...

Fingers crossed - one last decent dumping here, would make me a happy bunny.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Interesting. That's the second run with a snow risk for this area today. Looks like afternoon through to midnight. If anything, it has slightly increased in intensity: Sorry, for some reason my browser wont let me upload the precipitation chart!

There are some beefy showers out there heading towards the fife coast according to the radar. Will make it to you before me if they do come ashore. Fingers crossed.

edit: fax charts show this as an occluded front stalling along the east coast this afternoon into tonight. If it stalls a bit more overland, could be fun later on.

Edited February 19, 2010 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Fingers crossed - one last decent dumping here, would make me a happy bunny.

Ditto! It does look promising doesn't it? Do you think the GFS could have it wrong this close? (of course it can! )

[Guest]

Interesting. That's the second run with a snow risk for this area today. Looks like afternoon through to midnight. If anything, it has slightly increased in intensity: Sorry, for some reason my browser wont let me upload the precipitation chart!

Fingers crossed - one last decent dumping here, would make me a happy bunny.

I think this line sums up how we all feel. Although for me it's a case of one decent dumping, rather than a "last" dumping

Weather forecast from Traffic Scotland:

Weather Forecast for Central, Tayside and Fife

Wintry showers will affect the coastal periphery, these merging to give a longer spell of sleet or snow through the evening and overnight. Otherwise, bright after the clearance of mist or fog, this forming again overnight. Cold with a sharp frost first thing and again after dusk. Light winds.

There is an identical forecast for Grampian too

http://www.trafficscotland.org/weather/index.aspx

Edited February 19, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I think this line sums up how we all feel. Although for me it's a case of one decent dumping, rather than a "last" dumping

Weather forecast from Traffic Scotland:

There is an identical forecast for Grampian too

http://www.trafficsc...ther/index.aspx

Lothian and Borders:

Tonight:

Frost will become widespread with fog forming in some glens. Wintry showers will develop across Lothian and the Borders, more so after midnight, leading to difficult driving conditions inland. Minimum temperature -7 °C.

Now that's what I like to hear.

Edited February 19, 2010 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

I don't think those south of the border will be liking this run. 850s aren't so good and their projected 40cms on the 18zs last night has disappeared! and they get zilch on this run. Goes to show that although precipitation looks good for us at the moment, nothing is nailded on that's for sure!

[GraemeB]

Typisch..

The 6z gfs has completely downgraded the snow for Sunday through the Central belt.

[Guest]

Typisch..

The 6z gfs has completely downgraded the snow for Sunday through the Central belt.

Downgrade?? There's still 6-12 hours of snow showing there. I wouldn't get too hung up on the detail at this stage :)

[GraemeB]

Downgrade?? There's still 6-12 hours of snow showing there. I wouldn't get too hung up on the detail at this stage :)

Toorp alert !!

Toorp alert !!

Bah.

[Stuart]

Lothian and Borders:

Tonight:

Frost will become widespread with fog forming in some glens. Wintry showers will develop across Lothian and the Borders, more so after midnight, leading to difficult driving conditions inland. Minimum temperature -7 °C.

Now that's what I like to hear.

Good we could see some at last

Lothian and Borders:

Tonight:

Frost will become widespread with fog forming in some glens. Wintry showers will develop across Lothian and the Borders, more so after midnight, leading to difficult driving conditions inland. Minimum temperature -7 °C.

Now that's what I like to hear.

Good we could see some at last

[Guest]

Toorp alert !!

Toorp alert !!

Bah.

TOORPing allowed if you laugh at yourself along the way :)

[blitzen]

I quite like this run. Let's face it, there is finally some snow showing for us. Last night's 18z was absolutely ridiculous! Obviously off on one. Today will be a good guide as to how accurate it's snow predictions are and we can take it (or leave it) from there.

Feeling better Catch? Bronchitis is a rotten ailment, absolutely draining.

Edited February 19, 2010 by Blitzen

[Guest]

Feeling better Catch? Bronchitis is a rotten ailment, absolutely draining.

Thanks Blitzen, I think I feel better but I haven't done much recently to test how I feel. Off out for a walk with the wee one later so I will find out how well I am. I can more or less breathe properly again, so that's a nice feeling :unsure:

06z GFS not bad for snow for much of Scotland on Sunday/Monday. Soon within NMM range but nothing on the FAX charts suggests much snow, yet.

Edit: From some back of the envelope calculations the mean temperature locally to me for the last four days is under 0C. That's pretty impressive for this time of year I would imagine in some spots of Scotland the mean temp is -5C or less :unsure:

Edited February 19, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[sandstorm2]

Still -2c here and foggy, looking forward to the coming days as there is a good possibility of some snow. The GFS puts quite a deep low pressure moving NE over Scotland Monday into Tuesday with what looks like some strong winds and if there is heavy snow well anything can happen.

The fax charts are a bit different with the low a lot further SE.

Got everything crossed.

SS2

[LadyPakal]

Snowing nicely here in Aberdeen - settling too, if a little slushily in the city centre.

[sandstorm2]

Could somebody point me in the right direction for Tulloch Bridge, Geography is a bit suspect!

Is the proper name Tulloch Roy Bridge. Put it into Google Earth and that is what it came up with.

SS2