Convective Outlook

[Marcus_surfer]

Barely a cloud in the sky here in South Wales, basking in the warm sunshine, i feel sorry for the people with torrential rain!

Edited June 8, 2010 by Marcus_surfer

[A.J]

Quite a potent cell just sprung up just to the southwest of Stourbridge, should be of interest to 'Blizzards'....Another cell building right overhead here in Penkridge, and plenty of other heavy shower/storm development over the west Midlands now

[A.J]

Don't think that's the convergence zone, more rather upper trough contributing to development of heavy showers across the south and east currently. Convergence zone looks to be around central/northern Midlands currently looking on satellite loop.

Agreed, at the moment, the strongest area of convergence is in a narrow corridor from say Stoke at its northern extent, to South of Brum, Bromsgrove/Droitwich for example, at its southern extent....I would expect rapid shower development in this area, which indeed radar & visual observations seem to indicate

[slinky1989]

Heavy rain and just heard a rumble of thunder here now

[Tim B]

Hmm, conditions just right for weak storms in my area at the mo but nothing but rain as of yet. Tomorrow looks just as good as today so heres hoping though not expecting much.

[TonyH]

I think the trough over the south Midlands is a product of the convergence of NE surface winds to its north and SW winds to its south, perhaps this is wrong though? That still looks the most likely area for showers/ storms, cant see much over the West Mids apart from that semi-static area near Coventry/ Brum thats been there several hours and also a few tiny popcorn convective ones dotted about.

[Costa Del Fal]

Agreed, at the moment, the strongest area of convergence is in a narrow corridor from say Stoke at its northern extent, to South of Brum, Bromsgrove/Droitwich for example, at its southern extent....I would expect rapid shower development in this area, which indeed radar & visual observations seem to indicate

Hmm, not much is happening for a convergence line right now. I expected more than this right now but still time left in the day.

[Coast]

If you seem to be missing a post, think about the content and see if it is/was appropriate for this thread (Convective Outlook). If you want to make a storm report there is a section for that. If you want to report that it's raining, this isn't the place, try Today's Weather or Weather banter.

[MP-R]

Have just heard a rumble of thunder to the south of here from a very dark cu-nimb. Spots of rain too. Can clearly see it on the radar: http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[kold weather]

Yep some good convergence line running SW through the S.Midlands towards eastern parts of the SW looking at the wind.

I'm watching the cells moving into W.London right now as a system that has a shot for giving me at least a shower today however the wind direction means it may just skid to my north if it makes it this far east.

[Tim B]

Yeah that convergence line looks very nice for the development of heavy showers / storms, it seems to be slowly edging northwards around that rotation in tandem with the main rain band.

[Lewis]

After the sun trying to punch through earlier its gone very cloudy again here, its currently raining quite heavily on and off this morning. Interesting it may be, the showers further south seem to be intensifying as they push North, could get rather interesting later.

I think the front was situated a little further South today than what the GFS and NAE was showing, hence why its taken so long for things to kick off, Mr Ian Fergusson was on about it kicking off early this morning, which shows how things have changed quite quickly.The projected CAPE and Lifted Index values have stayed much further South also.

Edited June 8, 2010 by Coast

[swebby]

Afternoon,

Sorry, off topic but i suspect there will be someone on this thread who may be able to answer my question. I've just has a look at a high res NOAA sat pic and i was wondering if anyone could explain the small pinwheel like feature currently out in the bristol channel? http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg it's a little blurred but i was wondering if that is the very centre of the low pressure system?

Cheers

S

Edited June 8, 2010 by swebby

[Kain]

Afternoon,

Sorry, off topic but i suspect there will be someone on this thread who may be able to answer my question. I've just has a look at a high res NOAA sat pic and i was wondering if anyone could explain the small pinwheel like feature currently out in the bristol channel? http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg it's a little blurred but i was wondering if that is the very centre of the low pressure system?

Cheers

S

yes mate thats exactly what it is.

[Guest]

When you reply like that you are doing the same, which in turn makes it 2 off topic posts Coast has to Delete.

After the sun trying to punch through earlier its gone very cloudy again here, its currently raining quite heavily on and off this morning. Interesting it may be, the showers further south seem to be intensifying as they push North, could get rather interesting later.

I think the front was situated a little further South today than what the GFS and NAE was showing, hence why its taken so long for things to kick off, Mr Ian Fergusson was on about it kicking off early this morning, which shows how things have changed quite quickly.The projected CAPE and Lifted Index values have stayed much further South also.

Hopefully yes! Still very cloudy here, I keep watching the radar but things are taking an age to move north. I suppose I should just shut it off and wait for a few hours and be pleasantly surprised later ;-)

[Lynxus]

When is this line of showers going to move north.

They seem to be taking a completely different path to what was predicted at the moment.

Any thoughts on whats going on?

[ThunderWoman]

Im sure i have heard thunder here in Swindon twice in the last few mins no lightning

Yep, my first thunder of the year so far, and just heard a couple more rumbles approaching from the S/W

[TonyH]

When is this line of showers going to move north.

They seem to be taking a completely different path to what was predicted at the moment.

Any thoughts on whats going on?

They are not moving anywhere really, just stuck along that line, however you are close to it should it decide to move your way. No doubt more showers north of it through this evening too.

Edited June 8, 2010 by Tonyh

[janetmh71]

Around 5 rumbles here just over an hour ago. Two quite close.

Have had heavy showers on and off all day. Think its only stopped raining fully once today and that was only for 5 minutes.

Janet

[Lynxus]

No surprise there lol.

Main focus for development will be along area of convergence. Upper trough has already caused numerous heavy showers (some accompanied by lightning) across south-west and parts of southern Midlands. If nothing significant has developed across the west Midlands by early evening, then you may call this a non-event. But for now, you can't call it a day at mid-afternoon- is period where development of thunderstorms are at their most likely, and they can develop in an instant.

I understand where the storms will be, whats odd is that all the models put where i was pretty much in the centre of it ( even ians forast on TV mentioned this )

I was just simply wondering if this is due to more north ( into where it was progged ) or was going to stay where it was and produce more storms for the east again.

[Lewis]

woah some big cells developing to the south of me heading towards the humber

No weather warning from the metoffice yet its been raining here non stop more or less since 5am this morning :S

[liambailey09]

If the showers building west of london stay on course i should get a direct hit. But knowing my luck they'll die or something

Feeling really muggy today and seen loads of towers go up but not one bit of convective rain here today, there's me getting all excited about the prospects of a certain storm today lol

[Serendipity]

Looking at the raintoday radar, showers are moving close to me again. Not heard any thunder and actually at the moment it is pleasant and warm with sun but lots and lots of cloud bubbling up, some quite threatening looking.

I expected something sooner that this so it will be interesting to see what happens I think. Most of the interesting activity seems to be further south and east.

[MP-R]

Well that shower I thought I heard thunder from pretty much died a death overhead. Having arrived with quite a downpour for 5 minutes, it suddenly petered out and I can't actually see where the shower went - no solid clouds or anything. Is this signs of the activity dying away already?

[NorthantsSnow]

Seems as though all the lightning activity currently is over the north sea with a thunderstorm detected.

http://www.northantsweather.org.uk/lightning/nexstorm.jpg