Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[weatherobsuk]

Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa....l/101456.shtml?

48H 12/1200Z 57.5N 11.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Edited September 10, 2011 by SNOW_JOKE

[A Winter's Tale]

Has anyone got a recent satellite of Katia as I would be interested to see if it still has that distinctive tropical storm feature?

I would imagine it will be very windy on Monday aswell as pretty warm.

I would like to know what is the closest a proper Hurricane has ever come to the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

An Amber warning for much of Central, Western and Souther Scotland aswell as parts of Northern Ireland.

Met Office Warning:"The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds, The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures."

With an extra/ex tropical storm over the UK, I expect there must be a risk of some tornadic weather. With low pressure, wind and warm, moist air, I really wouldn't be surprised if there were to be a rise in Funnel Clouds over the UK and perhaps I may just see my first proper Tornado

[stingrays4]

Hi not sure how bad it will be down south here in Berkshire,but all the local forecasters are saying it will be bad? Saying that a 'Yellow' alert is in place for Sunday night/Monday?Been windy today and very muggy with a nice spell of precipitation for a couple of hours {12 am - 2 pm}now clear an breezy. Fingers crossed for a good show but that every one stays safe

[Geordiesnow]

Update of Ian's twitter

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

Very latest frm MetO Ops Centre slows ex-Katia & shifts centre further NW. So strongest winds (i.e., in NW) not till late Mon into Mon night

Which is what the UKMO and GFS models are showing however whether they will be right on that we will soon find out in 48 hours time!

I think the added interest and significance onto this low is the fact its an ex hurricane but also the time of year regarding leaves being in full leaf, If we do get battered, then don't be surprised to see many uprooted trees in NW Scotland as it looks like it will be a truely miserable day over there with persistant heavy rain. Flooding is also a real possibility but perhaps nothing too major hopefully.

Imo, I think we could very well face more damaging lows but not quite as deep in terms of air pressure as we head through the Autumn/Winter seasons especially if the Atlantic is active.

[Iceberg]

Just in case anybody isn't aware of the other thread. Katia is currently nearly 20mb lower than was thought when the models were ran as well as a possible lowering on strength there is also a good chance that it will be much worst than thought my very worst zone would be west central scotland where winds could be anything from 80 to 115mph still IMO (gusts)

[pyrotech]

Has anyone got a recent satellite of Katia as I would be interested to see if it still has that distinctive tropical storm feature?

I would imagine it will be very windy on Monday aswell as pretty warm.

I would like to know what is the closest a proper Hurricane has ever come to the UK.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

An Amber warning for much of Central, Western and Souther Scotland aswell as parts of Northern Ireland.

Met Office Warning:"The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds, The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures."

With an extra/ex tropical storm over the UK, I expect there must be a risk of some tornadic weather. With low pressure, wind and warm, moist air, I really wouldn't be surprised if there were to be a rise in Funnel Clouds over the UK and perhaps I may just see my first proper Tornado

This is best i can get,http://www.globalweathersystems.com/Weather/Europe/satellite_images.htm its the latest full northern europe and only shown in first image (ir) as storm comes closer the other images will pick it up. It looks like its lost alot of its structure,but still looks good for a deep depression. The eye has completely collapsed as expected. Hope that helps

Just in case anybody isn't aware of the other thread. Katia is currently nearly 20mb lower than was thought when the models were ran as well as a possible lowering on strength there is also a good chance that it will be much worst than thought my very worst zone would be west central scotland where winds could be anything from 80 to 115mph still IMO (gusts)

Hi Iceberg, has anyone done a forecast v actual forum, if not can you set one up and i will contruibute tomorrow as off out now, infact im late.

[Iceberg]

Already out and just on phone sorry

[bodysnatcher]

A history lesson.

http://www.weatheron...LE=extra_ne.tit

I was there - bloody scary stuff. Glass windows bowing in the face of the wind. A bin flying along the street at head heigh - at 30+ mph I guess. A prefab "Marley" garage toppling like dominos - the roof flying free, no trace to ever be seen again. As boys though we were jealous of a neighbour that got a tree through his roof and into the bedroom.

But, there were 20 killed - just keep a sense of perspective those wishing for higher wind speeds in their area.

Any similarities with this upcoming event? Then we had a low of 956mB across the North of Scotland.

Edited September 10, 2011 by bodysnatcher

[NO LONGER POSTING]

God..I don't know where I stand..All I know is it will be a bit breezy here in the south..It's guite blowy out there now..Now Weather online have the whole country in yellow warnings..shizzzz Weather eh?

[Matty M]

You can follow Katia here, probably not for long though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[bodysnatcher]

using a search engine for the 68 hurricane ( as we called it then)

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61837-the-great-storm-of-january-1968/page__view__findpost__p__1788690

link to the synoptic of that night, thanks netweather history

[The PIT]

The sheffield gale http://www.chrishobbs.com/sheffieldgale1962.htm we recorded 90 mph before any further wind measurement was possible the instrument was removed by err the wind.

[NickyB]

is anyone else looking at this? http://www.stormpulse.com/

As a complete novice, I'm finding this site really interesting.

[Shadow]

is anyone else looking at this? http://www.stormpulse.com/

As a complete novice, I'm finding this site really interesting.

Yes I have been watching this site as well, looks very interesting.

[Guest Quantumsnow]

is anyone else looking at this? http://www.stormpulse.com/

As a complete novice, I'm finding this site really interesting.

Yep me too. Nicely visual.

[Liam J]

is anyone else looking at this? http://www.stormpulse.com/

As a complete novice, I'm finding this site really interesting.

As has been mentioned The depression is some 20mb lower than the models have progged and is closer to 954mb, certainly flying over the Atalantic moving at 53mph ENE!!

[NickyB]

Yes I have been watching this site as well, looks very interesting.

eeek ! just looked at your location :-> Hope this dosnt turn out too bad for you all up there.

[Liam J]

The 12z runs predict she should be around 965-970mb at present, a large difference to the actual central pressure recorded.

One would expect an upgrade on the 18Z runs?

[NickyB]

The 12z runs predict she should be around 965-970mb at present, a large difference to the actual central pressure recorded.

One would expect an upgrade on the 18Z runs?

Do you know what time will the18Z come through?

[lorenzo]

Just in case anybody isn't aware of the other thread. Katia is currently nearly 20mb lower than was thought when the models were ran as well as a possible lowering on strength there is also a good chance that it will be much worst than thought my very worst zone would be west central scotland where winds could be anything from 80 to 115mph still IMO (gusts)

FAX charts on the pub run are going to resemble a plate of spaghetti

[Stormeh]

Found this video when searching twitter

[Matty M]

The 12z runs predict she should be around 965-970mb at present, a large difference to the actual central pressure recorded.

One would expect an upgrade on the 18Z runs?

Well you would really have to take a number of things into consideration before saying that.

Would a decrease in pressure result in the storm taking a left turn sooner?

Is the storm going to fill and then re-intensify.

Where is the jet going to interact with the storm - The later the further south the storm will be.

[Liam J]

Do you know what time will the18Z come through?

GFS 18z start coming out about 22.35 - 23.45 finish.

I think a degree of uncertainty was likely as Katia started her transition and her interaction with the jet stream, obviously this has aided rapid cyclogenesis for her to be some 20mb lower in pressure than the 12z progged

[Matty M]

GFS 18z start coming out about 22.35 - 23.45 finish.

I think a degree of uncertainty was likely as Katia started her transition and her interaction with the jet stream, obviously this has aided rapid cyclogenesis for her to be some 20mb lower in pressure than the 12z progged

Ex Katia has no undergone rapid cyclongensis.

If this does happen it will happen near T30hrs

[gottolovethisweather]

Out of interest guys n gals, before I take off to watch Andy Murray take on Nadal, I think some of us folk should be keeping our eyes on tonight's potential too. Sorry for hijacking this thread but I'm not sure the convection thread is up and running.

As has been mentioned by SnowJoke and possibly others, as well as the BBC there could well be some T&L about tonight.

Latest radar image looks interesting to say the least.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited September 10, 2011 by gottolovethisweather