Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[sundog]

guys is the ecm 00z any good for us?

The best we would get is frost,the second half of the run looks like there is alot of high pressure about.

[Partholon]

I'm not liking the latest uk met office extended outlook(day 6-15). Less cold further north and west with slow moving bands of rain, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally on high ground, seems to be the theme. So that probably means snow in Scotland and North of England at times, with rain for most of Ireland.

It'll be most frustrating if this turns out to be the case.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Partholon

[mountain shadow]

I think you are reading to much into it partho. The met are not going to call snow at all levels from that kind of timescale. It does appear that heights will build to the north west. If we have an east based -nao this may not favour Ireland as pressure might be to high although it would be cold, a neutral or slightly west based -nao is best for us.

[Watsy]

Well I'm just in from cutting the grass, it's been growing rightly through the winter so far, suppose that's one benefit of not getting any of the white stuff, I can keep it trimmed. I need some excuse not to get down about the lack of frost and snow this winter.

[Partholon]

I think you are reading to much into it partho. The met are not going to call snow at all levels from that kind of timescale. It does appear that heights will build to the north west. If we have an east based -nao this may not favour Ireland as pressure might be to high although it would be cold, a neutral or slightly west based -nao is best for us.

I hopes that's the case. I was told in the model thread that an east based - nao is better for our prospects, because with a west -nao the high might be located too far west, as a result the cold air is shunted into the Atlantic instead of over us?

Edited February 3, 2012 by Partholon

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Gee its a bit sleety here.... exciting..... not

[Partholon]

A very good run from the gfs 12z for some parts of Ireland by mid week of next week. Although the potential could well be gone on the next runs. They always seem to throw up eye catching charts then drop them for most modest solutions. So best to not get your hopes up till these charts are showing within 48 hours.

And then there is the more sobering ECM in the medium. Although further out in fi(t192) heights seem to build northwards.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Partholon

[Rocheydub]

I do genuinely believe we will be in a northern blocking pattern for some time, so I'd imagine we will be under a scandi block and eventually a Greenland high and I fully expect this within the next 7 to 10 days. But this is nature, the most unpredictable beast of the lot....

[sundog]

I do genuinely believe we will be in a northern blocking pattern for some time, so I'd imagine we will be under a scandi block and eventually a Greenland high and I fully expect this within the next 7 to 10 days. But this is nature, the most unpredictable beast of the lot....

Yes i think its only a matter of time before we get some kind of decent cold spell this month. We just have to continue to be patient.

[Baltic Regions]

Well I'm just in from cutting the grass, it's been growing rightly through the winter so far, suppose that's one benefit of not getting any of the white stuff, I can keep it trimmed. I need some excuse not to get down about the lack of frost and snow this winter.

Ha ha ha ha! Love it!!!!!

Watsy Yer round the corner from me dude and i want to shake your hand! Thats gotta be the norn iron humour summed up in one!

Absolutley priceless!

Dude, for that, I'll cut yer grass next time!

[The watcher]

Its coming alright. GFS and ECM where showing heights to NW at t240+ Earlier this week and last weekend and these interests have moved forward now to t168/192 in todays runs. In regards to the West/East based -NAO. Middle ground is best as too far West and we could be in cool Southerly flow, too far East and we are too dry as close to the HP. We want to be stuck between the 2 for constant Northerly stream and precipitation/fronts. Location wise we'd love to see 1000mb-996mb across Ireland, that should keep us in good middle ground. Come Monday/Tuesday we should know if it is serious suggestion from the models.

[mountain shadow]

Fingers crossed for the northerly. The teleconnections, 500mb height anomolies, models and forecasts all point towards Greenland height rises. Here's hoping for a locked in neutral -NAO with 4/5 days of heavy snow showers and polar low potential.

I can but dream........

[ronan]

There's been a but more life in this thread over the past day or two! I'm exhausted reading the model thread on a daily basis hoping that each model output will bring potential but for the past 3 weeks it's been a wild goose chase! MS a 4/5 day northerly would be the icing on the cake for us! An interesting week ahead and hopefully we will have the last laugh and our little Irish forum comes alive! Lol

[mountain shadow]

I've pencilled in the 13th of february for the cold to arrive, lets see if it gets nearer to fruition. The GFS 12z ops and most the GEFS bring the colder air in by that date, the ECM 12z Ops is a horror show bringing the opposite of what we should be expecting.

[martinj2]

Hi guys, just popped in from NW regional. Looks like Northern Ireland is right under the front according to met sat.

Any ppn yet?

[mountain shadow]

Yup, been raining all morning, uppers are to warm and surface cold as already gone.

[mickopla]

An Extremely mild 8.2c here and very damp. Hard to believe a few hundred miles away its below freezing.

[mountain shadow]

13th looking good for cold and snow on the GFS 6z, small chance of frontal snowfall next week if things back west a wee bit.

Around half the 6z GEFS bring in the colder weather for the 13th.

Roll on the 12z.

Edited February 4, 2012 by mountain shadow

[ronan]

Well if this front turns to snow accross the water then they are in for a big treat! The rain is really heavy at the minute! MS I love the way you are keeping our hopes alive for some cold and snow!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Jez thats a wet day and I have a bit of fruit tree pruning to get done today

If it turns to snow for the folks across the water then it could be very interesting.

Good man MS hope you are correct, if you are not I am organising the villagers with burning torches, pick forks etc to march on Carryduff

[gingercat]

Met office have issued a snow warning for N.I..... with a temp of 7/8c???? !

[norn iron]

I think they must feel sorry for us missing out lol!

[ronan]

Lol they must be going mad!!

[Partholon]

It's hard to understand how the ecm comes out with a run like that when all the background signals suggest the complete opposite. Still i suppose it can't be discounted. I'll not believe things will fall into place for us until these charts showing cold and snow are at t-72.

[mountain shadow]

Tremendous GFS 12z this evening. Possible frontal snow fall events next week followed by the northerly still showing as in place on the 13th. It might well be there is already snow on the ground before the northerly arrives.

Hope the ECM 12z comes back on board later.

UKMET very good as well, will be keeping an eye on those mid week FAX charts for sure.

Edited February 4, 2012 by mountain shadow