Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[mountain shadow]

We will know in the next 45 minutes whether winter is over for Ireland even though it has never began.

[ronan]

I am holding my breath waiting MS! Lol

[mountain shadow]

Well there is certainly enough this afternoon to keep me interested. GFS was 5/10, Ukmet 7/10. Hopefully the ECM will back further west and deliver a 10/10.

Remember how I pencilled in the 13th which disappeared for a couple of days? Strange how it appeared again.

Edited February 8, 2012 by mountain shadow

[Partholon]

The ukmo looks good, but still far from perfect. Let's hope the ECM backs it up tonight. So we can all get a couple of days of a northerly blast!

Edited February 8, 2012 by Partholon

[The watcher]

Well there is certainly enough this afternoon to keep me interested. GFS was 5/10, Ukmet 7/10. Hopefully the ECM will back further west and deliver a 10/10.

Remember how I pencilled in the 13th which disappeared for a couple of days? Strange how it appeared again.

yes models sometimes return to something that was 10-14days away and show it 5-7days away. Maybe it is just when a difficult pattern in close range fiddles around the variables in the latter increase but then that wouldn't explain why it was consistant with it a week ago. Something in the short must have had an adverse effect, then again this is only Greenland ridging rather than a full on High.

[STORMWATER]

It's depressing lads, we're so close we can nearly taste the snow, this winter has been so poor, any money it will rain most of the summer and for those who love mild muck I hope it does. LOL

[mountain shadow]

0/10 for the ECM ops run. I guess we will get some kind of half way house between the Ukmet run and the ECM which means the north east might catch something. For those further south and west the winter is indeed over, and I may well be joining you in the morning.

I will have a look at the ECM ensembles later and see how many support the Ukmet run and the FAX chart tonight will be interesting to see what the pro's think.

Edited February 8, 2012 by mountain shadow

[Partholon]

We just have to hope the ukmo is correct and the other models follow suit. Although it seems some UK met forecasters don't back their own model output for next week. So we may well have to make do with spring wintry showers. I just have a feeling we are going to get a cold March.

[ronan]

We just have to hope the ukmo is correct and the other models follow suit. Although it seems some UK met forecasters don't back their own model output for next week. So we may well have to make do with spring wintry showers. I just have a feeling we are going to get a cold March.

Don't think i could go another month hoping and wishing and clutching to an endless amount of straws!!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Right sesame seeds to this winter malarky, I am offically breaking the sun tan lotion out, the only question is who wants to rub it on me

Edited February 12, 2012 by The watcher

[Baltic Regions]

Right sesame seeds to this winter malarky, I am offically breaking the sun tan lotion out, the only question is who wants to rub it on me

Ive the budgie smugglers dug out for the morning!

Edited February 12, 2012 by The watcher

[BFS/BHD]

Snow in June at this rate. Why not!

[mountain shadow]

Well the GFS 18z is slightly better than it's 12z and the Met office have gone with their raw output which brings arctic air down during Monday. I would be happier if it backs west another 300-500 miles and the ECM come on board.

What will we see in the morning?

[mountain shadow]

8/10 for the GFS Oz ops run. 6/10 for the met and a better ECM at 5/10.

Unfortunately unless things back further west, Ireland will be too close to the high pressure resulting in less instability and less snow. The further north and east the better. Unless the models back west i cannot see any snow the further south and west you are.

[Partholon]

I think the fat lady is singing. A settled spell for a few days then back to cool zonality per the UK met office extended outlook looks most likely now.

[Rocheydub]

I wouldn't be using the GFS 06 run as anything to go by, renowned to be a poor and overly progressive run.... Lets see what the 12z's bring. I wouldn't be surprised to see it all shift 100/200 miles westward. UKMO styleeee! (he said in hope) I'm also at pains not to look too far past 96 hrs on the runs at the moment as they have all been poor enough of late beyond that.

[Partholon]

There has been model uncertainty for the last few weeks beyond day 3 and 4, but one certainty has been we've never tapped into the cold despite all the promise.

What a reality check this winter has been after December 2010 ): I hope the solar physicists are right about colder winters to come in the years ahead.

[sundog]

There has been model uncertainty for the last few weeks beyond day 3 and 4, but one certainty has been we've never tapped into the cold despite all the promise.

What a reality check this winter has been after December 2010 ): I hope the solar physicists are right about colder winters to come in the years ahead.

I suppose though getting 3 winters in a row delivering a prolonged cold spell is rare in this country,maybe it was too much to ask of this winter,though at the same time i am surprised this winter has been as mild as it has.

[mountain shadow]

Bar a big change in the short term it looks like this will be my worst winter for snow and frost in my seven years living in Ireland.

Edited February 11, 2012 by The watcher

[gingercat]

Offending posts deleted.

Chris

Edited February 11, 2012 by The watcher

[Partholon]

GFS showing a good northerly in 10 days time.

Sadly, I've more faith in Andy C bagging a hat trick at the weekend than that GFS northerly coming off at day 10.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

GFS showing a good northerly in 10 days time.

Sadly, I've more faith in Andy C bagging a hat trick at the weekend than that GFS northerly coming off at day 10.

Anhdy Cap?? who does he play for?

[sundog]

Another miserable day here,dull and rather misty with some rain at times and of course mild . Max temp 9.9c

This winter is doing my head in.

[Partholon]

Anhdy Cap?? who does he play for?

You forgot the r in his surname

[Partholon]

Another miserable day here,dull and rather misty with some rain at times and of course mild . Max temp 9.9c

This winter is doing my head in.

Tell me about it! Any chance we can get the Earth to spin in the opposite direction for next winter? It might help preserve our sanity