Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[mountain shadow]

Well Roger J Smith's - M.T. Cranium's - latest forecast rules out us benefiting from any reload - the cold is over eastern England and Scotland. If his forecast verifies it could be the end of February before we see any snow(if at all). He worryingly seems quite confident that this is what will happen. It would be a real kick in teeth to have this dramatic pattern change and then not get any snow out of it at all!

Roger J Smiths January forecast was completely wrong so I wouldn't worry about it.

Glacier Points forecast, the Meto Long ranger, the teleconnections and 500mb height anamolies charts as well as the models are all now pointing to finally getting a Greenland high. Hopefully the easterly will be pushed away quicker to allow the heights to move to Greenland quicker as well.

The 12z GFS, 12z ECM and now the 18z GFS have brought in the Greenie High in around 7-10 days time. Roll on tomorrow for some more firming up.

Edited January 31, 2012 by mountain shadow

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

So anything exciting going to happen for our neck of the woods or am I safe to go ahead and order some more bare roots for planting over the next week or two??

[mountain shadow]

Probably still 10 days or so from any snowy cold and the month is expected to get colder as it goes on so no I wouldn't be planting yet.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Probably still 10 days or so from any snowy cold and the month is expected to get colder as it goes on so no I wouldn't be planting yet.

Cheers MS at least its sunny today, I can live with that!!

[Matty M]

What is this south of the Isle of Man?

Probably an anarap but been there on last few slides of the radar snap.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Edited February 1, 2012 by Matty M

[Rocheydub]

What is this south of the Isle of Man?

Probably an anarap but been there on last few slides of the radar snap.

http://www.met.ie/la...nfall_radar.asp

Nothing on sats though. Interference?? I dunno, I just wouldn't imagine much precipitation in this set up.... Edited February 1, 2012 by Rocheydub

[ronan]

It's bitter cold out tonight!! Just wish there was some snow to go along with it! I'm not writing winter off but this has been a serious waiting game! It's been 3 long months coming on to this forum, clutching at straws and hoping that the next model will show something more positive! Our wee Irish forum has died of death when it should be buzzing at this time of year!! Still plenty of time for things to change! We shall see!

[mountain shadow]

Aye Ronan the waiting game continues. Doesn't help when the south east of England is going to get pasted either. :-(

Greenland height rises still showing in ten days time, we need that to start moving forward.

[ronan]

Tell me this MS! All this chat of things shifting west, does this mean that if things keep progressing then we have more of a chance to see some frontal snow at the weekend? From what I can tell is that no one can tell what's going to happen from 48 hours out? Maybe I'm just clutching at straws again! Lol

[The watcher]

From this range I can't see it moving West enough to effect us, even in the East, at this range the faxes out to t72 are usually fairly spot on. Steve Murr has been bigging up nearly every run that moves anything even an inch further West. This spell was always going to be mainly an East England spell and its a shame that not many in Model Discussion will admit that or indicate it. If the cold reload is indeed from the North in 7-10days time then it will be our shot at the glory and no doubt those in the SE will either complain or still want it to progress into an Easterly. Lol

Had a few light flurries here on Tuesday though, but thats the most Wintry precipitation so far this Winter.

[Juuyoku]

Seriously, the ground is in a lovely condition for some snow and there's not one wee flake to be seen anywhere . I'm trying to remain optimistic for the rest of the month though. This might just be things starting to move now- or at least I hope so .

[sundog]

From this range I can't see it moving West enough to effect us, even in the East, at this range the faxes out to t72 are usually fairly spot on. Steve Murr has been bigging up nearly every run that moves anything even an inch further West. This spell was always going to be mainly an East England spell and its a shame that not many in Model Discussion will admit that or indicate it. If the cold reload is indeed from the North in 7-10days time then it will be our shot at the glory and no doubt those in the SE will either complain or still want it to progress into an Easterly. Lol

Had a few light flurries here on Tuesday though, but thats the most Wintry precipitation so far this Winter.

Yes i would think we need a minor miricle at this stage for us to be effected,although the coming weekend might not be as mild over Ireland as previously thought well according to the ECM. I can see the MOD thread becoming a SE england thread over the next few days. Any front that moves over us could well fizzle out by the time it reaches SE england so they might end up with very little snow anyway although they do look like staying cold certainly colder then us of course.

[danm]

From this range I can't see it moving West enough to effect us, even in the East, at this range the faxes out to t72 are usually fairly spot on. Steve Murr has been bigging up nearly every run that moves anything even an inch further West. This spell was always going to be mainly an East England spell and its a shame that not many in Model Discussion will admit that or indicate it. If the cold reload is indeed from the North in 7-10days time then it will be our shot at the glory and no doubt those in the SE will either complain or still want it to progress into an Easterly. Lol

Had a few light flurries here on Tuesday though, but thats the most Wintry precipitation so far this Winter.

Just had a look in here, and whilst I understand your frustration, the SE often misses out on snow most winters as easterlies are so rare - northerlies rarely do it for us. There's not even any guarantee that the east will see any significant snow. If the front stalls further west we could miss out altogether. Any convective snow off the North Sea also looks a bit hit and miss due to the high pressure.

[Harps]

The east of England is definitely best placed at the moment for the front at the weekend but even there there's no certainty, not too bothered anyway as even if it does snow here the Atlantic would quickly take over and I'm not too fond of slushy muck. Clearly the Azores high is our main influence next week, pointless to hope otherwise, whether we get mainly settled weather or endless Atlantic fronts is the main point up for discussion tomorrow. A high sat over us would give some decent cool settled weather and keep the potential for a later easterly alive, the high stuck to the west would feed in constant atlantic crap, needless to say which I'd prefer!

[mountain shadow]

Dire runs this morning for Ireland, zero chance of snow as the front moves in tomorrow and the tentative signs of a Greenland high remain tentative and are no nearer fruition.

[Partholon]

The Azores high has really messed us around so far this winter.

I just have the fear it's going to continue that way. If we don't see strong indications of height rises to the north west of us by the middle of next week, then it might be time to give up on the idea of a prolonged cold period.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Partholon

[sundog]

The Azores high has really messed us around so far this winter.

I just have the fear it's going to continue that way. If we don't see strong indications of height rises to the north west of us by the middle of next week, then it might be time to give up on the idea of a prolonged cold period.

Yes the Azores high has killed this winter,pressure to the south has been high in general since september,so it kind of killed the Autumn too imo. I still think though that maybe we will get another shot at cold weather this winter and if we do i hope it doesnt end in disaster like this one. I would not be surprised if we get strong northern blocking in March which could lead to a cold spring,i bet in other words the northern blocking will set up at the wrong time just as winter bloody ends that would be typical lol.

[mountain shadow]

It's not the Azores High its the continued remnants of the PV which have remained around Greenland for 3 months, With low pressure to the north west the Azores High has no where to go.

Going to be a another miserable weekend whilst parts of England get buried.

An awful 12z GFS for Ireland with decent Greenland height rises still in deepest FI. Hopefully see a good ECM tonight, if not we could still be at least 14 days away from a snow event.

Edited February 2, 2012 by mountain shadow

[Partholon]

It's not the Azores High its the continued remnants of the PV which have remained around Greenland for 3 months, With low pressure to the north west the Azores High has no where to go.

Yep sickening alright that we miss out again. I have a brother in London who doesn't care if it's snow or not.

I understand that low heights in Greenland effectively lock the Azores high in place. Although I must admit I do not fully under the interactions between low pressure and high pressure. Why is it that the more amplified the trough is in eastern USA is crucial in determining whether the Azores high will eventually move north west?. If you have time to explain why I would appreciate it. Thanks.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Partholon

[sundog]

It's not the Azores High its the continued remnants of the PV which have remained around Greenland for 3 months, With low pressure to the north west the Azores High has no where to go.

The PV prevents the Azores high from moving northwards towards Greenland and so between the two of them we remain stuck in a rut.

[mountain shadow]

Yep sickening alright that we miss out again. I have a brother in London who doesn't care if it's snow or not.

I understand that low heights in Greenland effectively lock the Azores high in place. Although I must admit I do not fully under the interactions between low pressure and high pressure. Why is it that the more amplified the trough is in eastern USA is crucial in determining whether the Azores high will eventually move north west?. If you have time to explain why I would appreciate it. Thanks.

If you have a trough on the east coast of America which stalls, the warmer air on it southern flank gets sent north up the west coast of Greenland, this is the amplification or Warm Air Advection (WAA), Ireland would then be on the cold side of the Greenland High.

[sundog]

The latest ukmo run etc looks alot more promising for ireland or am i just clutching at straws?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

The latest ukmo run etc looks alot more promising for ireland or am i just clutching at straws?

Well this winter has always been a bit of straw clutching so hey why not!!

[mountain shadow]

The latest ukmo run etc looks alot more promising for ireland or am i just clutching at straws?

Hard to tell without looking at the uppers.

Personally I'm looking north west, getting a wee bit closer.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Classic WAA here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Edited February 2, 2012 by mountain shadow

[geoffw]

guys is the ecm 00z any good for us?