Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[mountain shadow]

As always though we're looking at +5 days in the future for any real cold which is total speculation at the moment, a far better set up than the rest of the winter though so hopefully we'll finally get lucky

Latest GFS run has snow in the east from 3 DAYS from now.

[Harps]

Very much a marginal situation though which could go either way, only going to be wet sleety snow for most if it does materialise

GFS has zero credibility of late with the 18z op again a major cold outlier, the mean 850hpa doesn't even go below -5C for the entire run over eastern Ireland. Not trying to be negative here, just giving a realistic view of what I see, I'd gladly be proven wrong tomorrow!

[The watcher]

No point looking for snow until we see how far West the Easterly will progress. Once we get agreement on at least -6 uppers over Ireland we can start to look at that potential for precipitation which will more than likely be of snow (-8 for Eastern coasts). To me it looks too close for comfort to call, however what is interesting is the quite constant idea of HP moving towards greenland from some of the runs. The power of the jet over towards the NW has constantly downgraded and this would help in making this model idea a reality. An interesting few days coming up.

[Partholon]

Interestingly HP moving to Greenland is what GP indicated might happen. Since he has got the overall picture correct, hopefully he'll be right about this little piece of the jigsaw. If those of us further west are to see any snow we need this to happen.

[The watcher]

Generally when the N hemisphere is HP dominated we see HP bouncing between Scandi and Greenland, this is a common occurence during prolonged cold spells. December 10 was very similar but I think it started with a greenie high as far as I can remember. Meto outlook was promising with only a smaller mild blip mid month.

[Partholon]

Generally when the N hemisphere is HP dominated we see HP bouncing between Scandi and Greenland, this is a common occurence during prolonged cold spells. December 10 was very similar but I think it started with a greenie high as far as I can remember. Meto outlook was promising with only a smaller mild blip mid month.

Unfortunately, I think they've changed their longer term outlook again today, though): December 2011 was indeed a greenie high. I remember it fondly, because the amount of snow that accumulated was more than I'd ever seen before in Ireland.

[mountain shadow]

A few runs hinting at the Atlantic pushing in later in the week coming up against the cold block and delivering large snowfall events to the Island. Low confidence though.

As for today, cold wet and miserable.

[ronan]

I hope your right Shadow! As for today it really is a stinking day out! Perfect for a blazing fire and loads of hangover munchies!

[ronan]

This must be very difficult for the forecasters as any of the BBC forecasts aren't going past 3pm tomorrow! Will probably go a bit further once the models update later today.

[mountain shadow]

GFS and ECM showing snow for Tuesday evening in eastern NI, not a whiff on the Meto forecasts though, mostly dry according to them. In my experience the Meto are always playing catch up in these circumstances.

Possible 12 hours of snowfall as the atlantic trys to push back in later in the week.

We shall see,

Edited January 29, 2012 by mountain shadow

[sundog]

A cloudy wet day here with heavy rain at times,miserable sums it up. Max temp 8.1c,current temp 4.2c

[Partholon]

GFS and ECM showing snow for Tuesday evening in eastern NI, not a whiff on the Meto forecasts though, mostly dry according to them. In my experience the Meto are always playing catch up in these circumstances.

Possible 12 hours of snowfall as the atlantic trys to push back in later in the week.

We shall see,

The lastest met eireann update is as follows:

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will each be very cold a largely dry days with sunny spells. Temperatures will only range from 3 to 6 degrees by day and will fall as low as -5 degrees in places at night. Winds will be mostly light to moderate and east to southeast in direction. Current indication suggest that next weekend will continue very cold with a risk of wintry showers on east and south coasts.

Although that could have all changed again by tomorrow!

[sundog]

Another miserable day here,dull and cloudy with light rain at times. Rather chilly especially out in any wind. Current temp 4.3c

[Baltic Regions]

Nippy day today! 2.2 c out there now and dropping off.

[gingercat]

Just watched the weather, snow forecast for Tyrone tonight and parts of the East tomorrow!

[mountain shadow]

Awful charts for us in the west other than a few cold days and frosty nights, maybe a little snow tomorrow evening. The latest ECM hardly even brings the -5oC isotherm on the 850's from the "easterly".

Edited January 30, 2012 by mountain shadow

[sundog]

Doesnt look great for us in ireland it has to be said atm with regards to this upcoming cold spell. Well if things go the way the models are showing it will just be a half hearted brief enough cold snap. This winter is really starting to get on my wick now.

[ronan]

So yet again the models have flipped and pushed everything further West again! I haven't left the model thread the past week!! It really is getting stressful! I really hope that something comes of this but it just seems to be dragging out big time! When will the ups and downs end? When will we start to see some agreement! Something has to happen soon and i think it will be the weekend before we know for sure what's going to happen!

[Rocheydub]

It's a case of look out your windows folks. The models are all over the kip!

We do know we have a distinct cool down, maybe even proper cold on the way for the next 3 days maybe 4/5/6 or more, but nobody knows for sure.

I am confident though, that any mild interlude, will be just that. A blip. The background signals are strong for more northern blocking. Be it a reload of the Scandi high or a Greenie HP... Time will tell. But I am confident of a decent cold spell before February's end...

[mountain shadow]

The UK Met FAX has us in the westerlies again by Saturday, unbelievable.

Tomorrow we may know for sure, however I'm looking for more signals on a Greenland High. Getting that in place is a sure sign of more prolonged cold spell.

Edited January 30, 2012 by mountain shadow

[Harps]

Dry and cold until Friday, that much we're pretty sure of and that'll do nicely for now, maybe light snow in the east but hard frosts and nice crisp dry weather for most. No need to be fretting over the weekend yet, almost certain the Atlantic is going to come into play for us but whether it'll be a glancing blow, a knockout or even heavy snow, its too far away to know. Enjoy a bit of winter while we have it first

[mountain shadow]

Awful runs for snow for Ireland, either dry and cold or rainy and cold. Dire.

[minus86BriJ]

A non-event for us this easterly. The orientation of the high was beginning to look dubious in terms of cold potential for us over the last few days and it pretty much certainly seems to have settled on bringing back the atlantic mild muck. As much as I enjoy cold and snowy conditions I never tend to fret while model watching because it has to be a seriously fortuitous synoptical set-up for us to get properly beasterlied anyway, c'est la vie. The Feb 1991 easterly brought over a foot of snow in my area so it can actually deliver the goods, I swear it did happen!!

There is of course still a possiblity of a reload and a more favourably positioned block over the coming weeks if GP the Genius's retrogressing high forecast is anything to go by. This winters waiting game gets ever more tedious all the same.

[minus86BriJ]

Irish Met office forecast this morning,

'During Friday, outbreaks of rain will spread eastwards across the country and, coming up against very cold air, will turn to freezing rain, sleet or snow in places further east for a time. However, with southerly winds freshening generally, temperatures will rise sufficiently by the end of the day to melt any snow which might briefly accumulate. Rain will clear for a time early Friday night and, with winds easing, temperatures may dip low enough for frost to occur. However, southerly winds will pick up again later in the night, with cloud increasing and outbreaks of rain spreading to the west and north once more. Saturday will be a much milder day countrywide, with extensive cloud, spells of rain or drizzle and moderate to fresh, south to southwest winds; however, the rain will clear away on Saturday night, winds will ease and frost is likely to develop in many places causing damp surfaces to ice over. Sunday should start dry and bright but rain will spread east later and it will turn considerably milder. This rather mild theme will continue into the early days of next week, with occasional spells of rain or drizzle and predominantly southerly winds which will strengthen at times.'

Inspiring stuff!

[Partholon]

Well Roger J Smith's - M.T. Cranium's - latest forecast rules out us benefiting from any reload - the cold is over eastern England and Scotland. If his forecast verifies it could be the end of February before we see any snow(if at all). He worryingly seems quite confident that this is what will happen. It would be a real kick in teeth to have this dramatic pattern change and then not get any snow out of it at all!