Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[Partholon]

I think it's safe to say it's going to get colder in Ireland, it's just a question of how cold it will get, and how long will it last. The uk met office is confident of cold air persisting for at least the first week or two of February(the longer it persists the better chances of snow coming from some direction eventually), but of course these met office forecasts do not have Ireland in mind specifically, so it could well get milder here, while the cold air persists in much of England. If this is how it plays out, at least let us have some snow before the change.

After the winter so far, it'll be a real sickner if we don't get anything out of this.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Watch out for black ice this morning folks, its cloudy here but a hard sheet of ice on the cars

[BornFromTheVoid]

Got a text from my mum back in south Tipp boasting about them getting snow this morning!

[ronan]

Very heavy sleet here at the minute!! A bit more elevation and it will be snow!! Just a pitty its next week that I'm working on the other side of the Glenshane!!

[mountain shadow]

Not convinced the "easterly" is even going to make it over the Irish Sea or even hang around in England long. If the Russian block does not push west i hope it deflates quickly eastwards and allow the PV to drop into Scandanavia and set up a northerly.

Nothing worse than being caught in the middle of a cold drizzly mess with south westerlies over Ireland and coldish air over England.

[sundog]

Looks to me atm like the atlantic will probably win the day. All this confusion i just think that this potential cold spell just isnt going to happen for us. I think back to Nov 2010 when the cold was almost a dead cert and all we had to do was wait but with this potential cold spell the longer it goes unresolved the more likely it will amount to nothing imo,its like we are just being teased. How many times have we seen russian highs flirt with us in the past only to give us hope that doesnt in the end amount to anything. With Greenland highs for example there is not as much messing about as always of course a much better chance of cold with them.

[Harps]

I don't get what all the hysteria has been about really, everyone saying the models can't agree etc but they've consistently shown cold air stalling just east of England before the atlantic wins, almost every run for the past 3 days has shown this. Pointless to discuss the following few days in any real detail but very few runs showing anything interesting amounting

[Rocheydub]

Care to review you thoughts?

[ronan]

I am no expert but in the current runs it shows the warm front further West! Would this increase our chances of a bit if frontal snow late weekend? The bbc weather forecast showed frontal snow down the spine of the UK but due to recent model changes then this should be pushed further west?? Am I wrong in what I'm saying?

[Earth Wind and Snow]

I am no expert but in the current runs it shows the warm front further West! Would this increase our chances of a bit if frontal snow late weekend? The bbc weather forecast showed frontal snow down the spine of the UK but due to recent model changes then this should be pushed further west?? Am I wrong in what I'm saying?

The BBC were showing this turning to snow if it reaches england because the colder air off the continent is digging in over there. We would need to see that colder air expanding further westwards over Ireland to see any fronts moving in from the west to fall as snow here.

Do not rule this out - too late to happen in next few days but as we go through next week the cold could become more extensive over Ireland and if this happens any fronts that approach could threaten us with snow.

In fact looking at the further outlook for February the UK Met are expecting an easterly flow to dominate the first 2-3 weeks but state that milder air may try to push in to the north and west at times - this to me highlights the risk of battleground snow occuring possibly right over Ireland - Jan '82, Feb '78 anyone?

EWS

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Lokking Cold for the eastenders next week - will it push onwards towards us though, that my friends is the question

[DaBrigg]

The continental air is now expected to brush eastern Ireland as early as Sunday Night.

As the cold is closer to the surface than we're used to, we should pay more attention to temps at the 925hPa or 950hPa level, and the 850-1000hPa thicknesses.

If the front stalls just a little further west it could get very interesting for some lucky people.

http://expert-images...013000_2712.gif

http://expert-images...013000_2712.gif

Edited January 27, 2012 by DaBrigg

[ronan]

It's really quiet in here! The chat in the model thread leads me to believe that the whole of the UK and Ireland could be under extremely cold air. Does the green line on the chart above show where the snow line could be come Sunday night??

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

It's really quiet in here! The chat in the model thread leads me to believe that the whole of the UK and Ireland could be under extremely cold air. Does the green line on the chart above show where the snow line could be come Sunday night??

I have no faith that we will see anything out of this yet Ronan, when I say we I means those of us more westerly based, but hey what do I know!!

[Rocheydub]

Keep the faith PS. This HP is going nowhere but westward, and that will mean nothing but cold for the whole island of Ireland. In fact, the general consensus is that the HP will grow over Greenland, and that will bring northerly and N'Erly winds... That will favour your neck of the woods more.

[ronan]

Aww I don't know what's going to happen Pomeroy! Latest BBC forecast shows snow over us on Monday as the cold air digs in against that front but he did stress that things are so uncertain at the minute! What I can say for certain is that things could get interesting very very quickly and there could be a few surprises in store! Something feels really different about this setup and if that major cold that's showing in FI makes its way towards us then who knows! The cold pooling over Europe at the moment looks really intense!

[mountain shadow]

Things are too close to call at the minute. Last night the warm front was over Cheshire, tonight its in Fermanagh. If the block pushes further west we will all miss out.

[Rocheydub]

Met Eireann forecast on RTE right there showed nowt of interest up to Wednesday... For any of us. They use the ECMWF model as far as I know, surprised at it to be honest. I would have thought there would have been a mention at least of colder weather....

[mountain shadow]

From reading on here I kind of assumed Met Eirann were even more cautious than the UK met?

[mountain shadow]

Monday has the cold air undercutting....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

From reading on here I kind of assumed Met Eirann were even more cautious than the UK met?

I am nearly sure theymentioned next week getting colder on Wednesday night, good to see some postivity on here, apart from sourpuss me

[BIG LAD]

i will be so left trouser leged if next week is cold and snowy here! im headin to poland on sunday and wouldnt want to miss out all the fun on here. they reckon it will be below -20c in poland next week!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

i will be so left trouser leged if next week is cold and snowy here! im headin to poland on sunday and wouldnt want to miss out all the fun on here. they reckon it will be below -20c in poland next week!

Make sure you pack the Long Johns BIG LAD

[sundog]

Well some great charts today from the GFS,the ECM not so great but still with potential. Yesterday i thought the likelyhood was that the Atlantic would probably win out but now it looks like there is a good chance the cold will win and if it does we could see some very cold air indeed. As for snow i dont think there is any point going there yet at this stage. I think its been a strange week of model watching who knows what the models will be showing next.

Edited January 27, 2012 by sundog

[Harps]

i will be so left trouser leged if next week is cold and snowy here! im headin to poland on sunday and wouldnt want to miss out all the fun on here. they reckon it will be below -20c in poland next week!

Some absolutely brutal cold in Eastern Europe next week so wrap up tight, ECMWF has 850hPa temps around -30C and it'll probably be close to -40C in the windchill on the ground, dangerous cold

Big changes today but still no clearer to whats happening, I'm still unconvinced that Ireland will get anything except maybe the east coast but far more encouraging than last night. As always though we're looking at +5 days in the future for any real cold which is total speculation at the moment, a far better set up than the rest of the winter though so hopefully we'll finally get lucky