Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[Harps]

Tremendous GFS 12z this evening. Possible frontal snow fall events next week followed by the northerly still showing as in place on the 13th. It might well be there is already snow on the ground before the northerly arrives.

Hope the ECM 12z comes back on board later.

UKMET very good as well, will be keeping an eye on those mid week FAX charts for sure.

Seen the 12Z GEM? Wednesday would be great if that came off! Seems too progressive in building the cold over Britain but it doesn't take much for things to go our way

All the 12Z runs are good so far with GFS still going for a north easterly afterwards as well, still looking for the ECMWF to come on board before any real excitement though

[sundog]

Some great charts today. I really hope the Ecm comes on board so i am holding off my excitement for the time being.

Meanwhile a dull and mostly wet day here although becoming dry now,max temp 8.1c,current temp 6.7c

[mountain shadow]

70% of the GFS 12z ensembles have the colder air on the 13th. Getting there.

ECM 12z back on board tonight also.

Edited February 4, 2012 by mountain shadow

[Partholon]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png

An interesting fax chart for Tuesday. The front seems to stall. On the earlier fax chart the fronts were much further east.

Could there be frontal snow in the east of Ireland from this?

[The Cashel Cockney]

Tonights one night I wish I was back in London!

[glorious12th]

No thanks cashal cockney rush green was enough in Feb 1991 !

[The Cashel Cockney]

We were in the Freezer!!

[The watcher]

No matter where you are this winter has been nothing special, so you aren't missing out on much, yet.

[Partholon]

No matter where you are this winter has been nothing special, so you aren't missing out on much, yet.

Serbia is buried under 8 foot of snow! Oh you mean anywhere in the British Isles:) Well hopefully yet is the keyword!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I hope the folks across the water are enjoying the snow, any more thoughts on how things are looking for our wee isle?

Why the telephone box was there a yellow warning for snow for NI yesterday :80:

[mountain shadow]

A step back this morning for Ireland. Neither GFS ops or ECM ops bring in a northerly by the 13th. No real support on the GFS ensembles either. As a plus though, Todays ECM is 100% better than yesterdays.

[Partholon]

The ECM is very good if you live in the north east and east of Ireland, not so for those in other locations. It's puzzling how it has suddenly dropped the Greenland high idea. I suppose the ecm is also better for prolonging the cold, but from an imby perspective, the GFS looks better to me.

Met Eireann are talking about somewhat milder weather again next weekend. Well there probably will be changes in their outlook over the week. However if the cold and snowy scenario is constantly pushed back it's not a good sign.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Partholon

[The watcher]

Yes, models dropping the GL high idea again but they did this before, even with the Easterly then brought it back at a nearer time. I'd rather have the Northerly than the Easterly. I will plum for the GL high to come back to the models by tuesday and be 6/7 days away. 500mb anomaly charts favoured it in the 7-15 day timeframe just yesterday morning.

[Partholon]

Yes, models dropping the GL high idea again but they did this before, even with the Easterly then brought it back at a nearer time. I'd rather have the Northerly than the Easterly. I will plum for the GL high to come back to the models by tuesday and be 6/7 days away. 500mb anomaly charts favoured it in the 7-15 day timeframe just yesterday morning.

Yes hopefully that's the case. However the uk met office extended outlook have now gone with the idea of a scandi high/icelandic high. They also are of the view the Atlantic takes over during the last week of February. With a Scandi high it's nearly always easier for the Atlantic to get back in. I'm just worried a new trend is taking shape.

[Partholon]

Not great charts tonight from the ECM it has to be said- unless of course you live in the south east of England.

[The watcher]

Countryfile forecast and fax charts showed mid atlantic high already stretching towards greenland by Friday/Saturday next weekend. Looked like Northerly winds blasting down but no confirmation from them as to a general mild/cool pattern, probably due to the uncertainty. But nice to see they favoured the HP to the West for their faxes.

[mountain shadow]

If we believe the models there is little chance of a northerly by the 13th or even beyond. Our winter snow hopes rest on the teleconnections coming good in 7-10 days time.

[Partholon]

I 'm beginning to think it could be hopecasting relying on the teleconnections. You have to ask yourself why did the UK met office suddenly switch their outlook today. They must surely take into account these teleconnections. The fact they and two of the major models have ditched a Greenland High is a very bad sign.

I guess we'll know by Tuesday or Wednesday. You'd have to say if the idea of a Greenland high hasn't shown up again on the models by then, and a resurgent pv is shown, we can forget about a prolonged cold spell till next winter.

Edited February 5, 2012 by Partholon

[mountain shadow]

Never mind a prolonged cold spell Partholon, I would take a 10 minute snowfall as this winter has been so bad.

GFS 18z brings in a northerly...................in two weeks!!!

With regards the teleconnections, if the northerly doesn't come off we'll know to ignore them next winter.

[Partholon]

Same here. A northern toppler would do at this stage.

I suppose after the last two years, we should have prepared for the worst. lol

[STORMWATER]

It's getting desperate for snow lovers at this point, I personally think we won't get any. Mild mild muck.

[mountain shadow]

Suffice to say if we don't see a return to some signs of a Greenland High on the 12's then for Ireland it's a case of "For You Ze Vinter is over".

Not that it ever began.

[sundog]

Suffice to say if we don't see a return to some signs of a Greenland High on the 12's then for Ireland it's a case of "For You Ze Vinter is over".

Not that it ever began.

I agree IF we dont get a Greenland high thats our winter overi would think although i would not be surprised to get a cold spring. Maybe the very cold weather in Europe was our real chance this winter for something special and with it not arriving to Ireland we missed a good chance and maybe thats winter done for this year.

[mountain shadow]

Well the GFS 12z was awful although it had a stab at the Greenie High. I would go as far to say that if we don't see a switch to a Greenie High on the ECM tonight then it's goodbye winter.

Yes, we may get cold in March but that;s Spring.

[geoffw]

im really looking forward to spring and warmth and sun, whos with me?