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London & The South East Regional Discussion - Part 11

kold weather

By kold weather
in Regional

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snowfish Newbie

snowfish

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent
Posted

BBC not keen on it getting east of London

It then drops down south and west

Still time for some change yet

Perhaps but even thought the latest GFS run isn't anything to get overly excited about, I have looked at the precip type charts and it shows SE getting plenty thursday into friday - not sure how to link to this forum but you can see this in charts section - so all to play for!

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

Are we talking a 1 or 2 cms accumalation here or a bit more than that Friday pm?? Someone travelling down from Oxford asked me. Also what will be the situation Saturday?? Lying snow or falling snow. Ta in advance.

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)

Yep totally agree snowfish

The latest charts look far better than the latest BBC forecasts

Completely different

Edited by snowbob
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Nick.F Apprentice

Nick.F

Posted
  • Location: Nr Colchester Essex
  • Location: Nr Colchester Essex
Posted

Nobody knows yet, Thursday evening there should be more of a clue. Accumulations are difficult to forecast this far ahead - it would be guessing.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

Some models brinhging in some light snow, the ECM and UKMO raw model not so much, though the west of the region would be better. I think Kent may struggle full stop to get anything.

I don't think any should complain, we had a good event last weekend, its probasbly to be expected that somewhere else will get the bullseye...

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Brightlight Newbie

Brightlight

Posted
  • Location: Brighton - 67m
  • Location: Brighton - 67m
Posted

charts show snow "risk" dont they, lots more dependant to get actual snow :-) Small white grains been falling on and off all morning here and its very very cold with grey grey sky - bring on the blue sky and all will be well in my world

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Some models brinhging in some light snow, the ECM and UKMO raw model not so much, though the west of the region would be better. I think Kent may struggle full stop to get anything.

I don't think any should complain, we had a good event last weekend, its probasbly to be expected that somewhere else will get the bullseye...

The current short range models do put the Midlands in the bulls eye, but do you reckon the system could shift SE?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The thickness levels and the 850 temps currently forecast look a tad on the high side for snow for my area of West Herts, or is this going to change?

irrelevant mike in an undercutting situation. dew points, surface wind direction and 850/1000mb thicknesses are what you need to be looking at. also, need to be careful that there isnt a 'melt layer' high up which could lead to freezing rain or sleet at the surface

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Will Padz Enthusiast

Will Padz

Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire, 310m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire, 310m asl
Posted

I reckon met will put up a watch at lunchtime for relevant areas.... Interest building.... -0.5c with more flakey type flurrying....

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

I don't know about the 850hpa profiles, if you've got uppers above 0C then you really increase the risk of freezing rain...

Anyway I don't think there is going to be that much snow in our region, maybe 2-4cms for most bar perhaps the NW of this region which may get more. With this type of set-up unless we were to get a shift eastwards I think the main attention will be to our north.

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

It's still a little way away yet..Lot's can change..I am in the west of this region so maybe I could be in Luck...

I don't know about the 850hpa profiles, if you've got uppers above 0C then you really increase the risk of freezing rain...

Anyway I don't think there is going to be that much snow in our region, maybe 2-4cms for most bar perhaps the NW of this region which may get more. With this type of set-up unless we were to get a shift eastwards I think the main attention will be to our north.

Never ever witnessed freezing rain..Would love to though :)

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Brightlight Newbie

Brightlight

Posted
  • Location: Brighton - 67m
  • Location: Brighton - 67m
Posted

no sign of wintery weather in the latest METO 6-15day

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 22 Feb 2012:

A cloudy, murky but less cold start, with some stubborn fog patches as well as outbreaks of rain. However, brighter but windier conditions look set to become quickly established across the UK, with blustery wintry showers, particularly across northern and eastern areas. Towards the end of the week southern and more especially, southwestern areas look set to be fairly settled and largely dry, with wetter and more unsettled weather largely affecting the north of the UK. As February progresses these more unsettled conditions look likely to become dominant across the UK, with the risk of some very windy days. However, it could take some time for the far south to turn more unsettled, the best of any drier conditions here, but also a higher risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1144 on Wed 8 Feb 2012

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

Temperatures have soared to 0.1c here.

No snow, hardly any lying snow left too.

Models suggesting the heavy snow (Thursday night/Friday event) will fall in the Midlands - probably get a dusting in this region especially the western half.

Edited by mulzy
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

NAE has snow right down to the SE coast as does UKMO. GFS has it only clipping the region. Lots of changes to come but expect METO warings to be issued soon. DOubt there will much in the city due to the heat effect as it will be marginal

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Floatylight Aficionado

Floatylight

Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
Posted

No met o doesnt in 6-15 dayer.

But we talking about friday's possibilities?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
  • Author
Posted

NAE has snow right down to the SE coast as does UKMO. GFS has it only clipping the region. Lots of changes to come but expect METO warings to be issued soon. DOubt there will much in the city due to the heat effect as it will be marginal

NAE has very lighty snow for our region, probably 1-2cms away from maybe the NW of this region. I don't think this will be anything close to last weekends event simply because the front isn't as strong nor as far east. GDS actually gives nearly the exact same amount as the NAE...

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

It's still a little way away yet..Lot's can change..I am in the west of this region so maybe I could be in Luck...

Never ever witnessed freezing rain..Would love to though :)

It's interesting, but truly nasty stuff if it persists.

Edited by Speed67
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

I just googled the freezing rain event of January 1940 in the UK and saw that Coast posted about it on this site a few years back! :lol:

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arni Newbie

arni

Posted
  • Location: LONDON
  • Location: LONDON
Posted

In my opinion, this front is too weak, it won't bring any disruptive snowfall. The midlands might get a covering. As for London, the ridiculous 5cm we got last week end is probably it really for this winter...

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

In my opinion, this front is too weak, it won't bring any disruptive snowfall. The midlands might get a covering. As for London, the ridiculous 5cm we got last week end is probably it really for this winter...

Don't know what area of London you're in, but many areas of London got over 10cm's. A lot has melted, but we still have a fair amount lying, particularly on the grass.

It's not often that London has snow lying for 4 days, as it has so far...

Edited by danm
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