South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 7th 2012>

[Methuselah]

strange thing up in sky its hot!!

I noticed that, too. Any idea what it is?

[tinybill]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

how far north it the rain coming to-day loads of heavy stuff now leaveing france heading south of U.K. way at the moment

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning, Met office mentions possibility of thunder for south of London tonight and tomorrow.

Afternoon, yep - only just had chance to play catch up but here is the warning;

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey & West Sussex

Issued at - 10 Jun 2012, 12:16

Valid from - 10 Jun 2012, 18:00

Valid to - 10 Jun 2012, 23:55

Outbreaks of rain are likely to become heavy and possibly thundery on Sunday evening over parts of southern England, particularly the southeast. The public should be aware that this could lead to localised surface water flooding.

​It's been a beautiful day so far here, just what I needed to get plenty of fresh air and exercise in after a little too much food and wine last night ! It's starting to cloud over a bit now but as MK isn't mentioned in the above I'm hoping we miss the worst of it...at least until my conservatory roof repairs have been carried out tomorrow !

[abruzzi spur]

Afternoon, yep - only just had chance to play catch up but here is the warning;

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey & West Sussex

Issued at - 10 Jun 2012, 12:16

Valid from - 10 Jun 2012, 18:00

Valid to - 10 Jun 2012, 23:55

Outbreaks of rain are likely to become heavy and possibly thundery on Sunday evening over parts of southern England, particularly the southeast. The public should be aware that this could lead to localised surface water flooding.

​It's been a beautiful day so far here, just what I needed to get plenty of fresh air and exercise in after a little too much food and wine last night ! It's starting to cloud over a bit now but as MK isn't mentioned in the above I'm hoping we miss the worst of it...at least until my conservatory roof repairs have been carried out tomorrow !

Hello MK

Been very still and quite muggy here in Reigate today. In the last hour there has been the odd light shower, barely enough to register. Slightly more breeze around now, but no hint of sunshine. Maybe the mugginess will contribute to the thunder potential later on. My daughter set off with junior school for Snowdonia today, where they will be until Saturday and, unusually for Wales, the weather may well be better there than it is going to be here.

AS

[Snowangel-MK]

And another one for Monday.....

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

Essex, Hertfordshire, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

valid from 0005 Mon 11 Jun to 2355 Mon 11 Jun

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

valid from 0005 Mon 11 Jun to 2355 Mon 11 Jun

Rain is likely to be heavy and persistent at times on Monday across parts of southern England, particularly the southeast where thundery downpours are possible. The public should be aware of the risk of surface water flooding and perhaps some localized river flooding.

Issued at - 10 Jun 2012, 12:42

Don't shoot the messenger...but as Milton Keynes is no longer in Buckinghamshire I'm expecting to stay dry - lol

[Snowangel-MK]

Hello MK

Been very still and quite muggy here in Reigate today. In the last hour there has been the odd light shower, barely enough to register. Slightly more breeze around now, but no hint of sunshine. Maybe the mugginess will contribute to the thunder potential later on. My daughter set off with junior school for Snowdonia today, where they will be until Saturday and, unusually for Wales, the weather may well be better there than it is going to be here.

AS

Hi AS,

Lovely here, I've really enjoyed some warm sunshine - it's got upto 20 °C and also feels quite still and muggy but no showers as yet - not that I'm worried now, my plans after lunch are for kitten cuddles on the sofa in the conservatory and no doubt a nap !

I bet your daughter will have a great time in Wales, I hope the weather is good enough for her to reach the summit of Snowdon, it's wonderful !

Edited June 10, 2012 by MKsnowangel

[abruzzi spur]

Hi AS,

Lovely here, I've really enjoyed some warm sunshine - it's got upto 20 °C and also feels quite still and muggy but no showers as yet - not that I'm worried now, my plans after lunch are for kitten cuddles on the sofa in the conservatory and no doubt a nap !

I bet your daughter will have a great time in Wales, I hope the weather is good enough for her to reach the summit of Snowdon, it's wonderful !

Thanks MK. Yes, I've been up there several times but not for a few years now. Must get back. Seeing all the buses head off today with the kids on board was very uplifting. The school has been running this trip for about 20 years now - it's the final one for the children before they all move on to senior school. Tuesday is scheduled summit day - forecast looks ok, sunny early thunderstorms later on. Which for Snowdonia counts as a heatwave!

AS

Edited June 10, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[tinybill]

And another one for Monday.....

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

Essex, Hertfordshire, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock

valid from 0005 Mon 11 Jun to 2355 Mon 11 Jun

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

valid from 0005 Mon 11 Jun to 2355 Mon 11 Jun

Rain is likely to be heavy and persistent at times on Monday across parts of southern England, particularly the southeast where thundery downpours are possible. The public should be aware of the risk of surface water flooding and perhaps some localized river flooding.

Issued at - 10 Jun 2012, 12:42

Don't shoot the messenger...but as Milton Keynes is no longer in Buckinghamshire I'm expecting to stay dry - lol

just watched the bbc weather on the red button any were to-night can expect over a month worth of rain, plus hes saying its staying like this for the next 2 weeks

[john pike]

this will be why the weather warnings are out

low slap bang over the south east

monday 12hrs

not moved much

slim chance of the odd rumble of thunder

flooding again is the main issue again though

[tinybill]

this will be why the weather warnings are out

low slap bang over the south east

monday 12hrs

not moved much

slim chance of the odd rumble of thunder

flooding again is the main issue again though

still cant use our hose pipes!!

[camiscool]

where is this rain coming from? no heavy rain in france at the mo?

[tinybill]

where is this rain coming from? no heavy rain in france at the mo?

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

looking at the radar there a low in the bay of biscay

[john pike]

channel low

if only it was winter

sorry someone had to say it

[camiscool]

whens it meant to arrive then?

[tinybill]

http://europa.buienradar.nl/gmap.aspx?soort=loop3uur&zoom=7&lat=50.4888&lon=4.4192

looking on here there heavy stuff [thunder storms] on the french coast

[abruzzi spur]

whens it meant to arrive then?

Latest video forecast can be seen on this page:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

Sounds like somehwere around our region is going to get a whole heap of rain in the next 24 hours.

Forecaster sticking his neck out saying no sign of any settled and warm weather for the next 2 weeks

Feels like September today - a sort of end of season, melancholic air to it (maybe that's just me!)

AS

[tinybill]

Latest video forecast can be seen on this page:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

Sounds like somehwere around our region is going to get a whole heap of rain in the next 24 hours.

Forecaster sticking his neck out saying no sign of any settled and warm weather for the next 2 weeks

Feels like September today - a sort of end of season, melancholic air to it (maybe that's just me!)

AS

i know what you mean im a winter lover ,im never on here in summer!!!

[john pike]

https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/public_images/MEURAP048.GIF

yuk

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like the worst of the rain and any t-storms will miss me thankfully as that rain has a very slight North-East movement to it

[abruzzi spur]

Looking at the radar the heavier rain seems to be making a beeline for here. Been raining lightly for the last hour or so. Looks like another under 9s cricket match may be scuppered tomorrow...

AS

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=1

met office warning

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

[bluearmy]

this looks like it could be a notable rainfall event for this region. seriously, 2"+ of rain in 6 to 9 hours is no joke. take care.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lets have a look at what the models are doing..

NAE...Anyone got some some wood and nails? Ill bring the tools and we might jsut have time to build a boat..More people the quicker..53MM is some places ?!?!

GFS...Slightly less wet and maybe pushing a little further east and North than the NAE...

One thing to note..I think or maybe being stupid but...The area of low pressure is set to develop and the centre of the low is starting to show now..The developing line I have indicated below...

Key:

Blue line: Direction of rainfall it is expected (looking at the charts)

Red box: IMO the higest total of rainfall somwhere in that box..

Yellow box: Possible highest risk depending on when the Rain begins a more North moment than North east...

Im no expert lol so this could be alll wrong

Anyone notice how "wet" the air feels...Incoming

Not only is going to be ALOT of rainfall...Last night I watched the BBC forcast and looking at it I knew it was wrong..I didn't spot this till this morning this is just popped up..And that's what makes the weather GREAT! it's full of surprises..Just not good ones sometimes :S

Edited June 10, 2012 by Surrey

[vortex_liam]

Lets have a look at what the models are doing..

NAE...Anyone got some some wood and nails? Ill bring the tools and we might jsut have time to build a boat..More people the quicker..53MM is some places ?!?!

GFS...Slightly less wet and maybe pushing a little further east and North than the NAE...

One thing to note..I think or maybe being stupid but...The area of low pressure is set to develop and the centre of the low is starting to show now..The developing line I have indicated below...

Key:

Blue line: Direction of rainfall it is expected (looking at the charts)

Red box: IMO the higest total of rainfall somwhere in that box..

Yellow box: Possible highest risk depending on when the Rain begins a more North moment than North east...

Im no expert lol so this could be alll wrong

Anyone notice how "wet" the air feels...Incoming

Not only is going to be ALOT of rainfall...Last night I watched the BBC forcast and looking at it I knew it was wrong..I didn't spot this till this morning this is just popped up..And that's what makes the weather GREAT! it's full of surprises..Just not good ones sometimes :S

I agree with the rough direction of the rain. Although a little to the west. It'll slow too before it curve's. I can see some localized if not WIDESPREAD flooding into the early hours of the morning.

[john pike]

hi surrey

thanks for the info

i think the biggest risk for heavy rain starts early monday morning onwards

the fax charts show a low stall over the south east at 06hr monday

and not moved very much by 1200hr monday

the low could anchor in a slightly different position as shown but at present

this is showing as a whole south east event