March 2013 CET (2012/13 CET Competition)

[Summer Sun]

A chart from the Met office showing how this march compares to others since 1960

[Coast]

So, will it be colder this March than in 1969?

Since the media are so sure March 2013 will be the coldest “for 50 years†(meaning 51), let’s have another look. The first point to note is that the average so far this month, up to and including the 21st, is 3.6C. As I mentioned, it was only 3.7C to the 19th and the 20th. In terms of record-breaking, this could be enough to make a difference.

The second point is arithmetical. If one of the remaining 10 days this month (22nd-31st) is 2-3C below the current average (3.6C), the mean for the month will decrease by 0.1C; if a day is 2-3C above the average so far the mean will increase by 0.1C. This is admittedly a crude reckoning system, but simple and effective.

Third, taking the Heathrow temperature as typical of the Central England region as a whole, the medium term forecast has been deteriorating. This was the main theme of my previous post – perhaps I didn’t take enough account of it when discussing the monthly record temperatures.

The balance of probabilities does seem now to suggest that March 2013 will be the coldest in the CET since 1962. Most likely, the Metro, the Mail and John Hammond of the BBC will be proved right.

http://unchartedterritory.wordpress.com/2013/03/22/march-2013-coldest-uk-winter-in-51-44-or-just-43-years/

[Optimus Prime]

It's likely March 2013 will beat 1962 for the CET at the very least. It will however probably be the coldest by mean maxima on record, beating March 1888 which recorded 5.8c. I suspect mean maxima will finish off around 5.6c as it's currently at 6.2c. Thrashing 1916 which was the lowest of the 20th century at 5.9c. 1962 wasn't as exceptional at 6.7c (but had way lower mean minimum)

If this month by mean maxima finishes off at 5.6c the anomaly will be 3.4c below 61-90, 4.0c below 71-2000 norm and 4.5c below 81-10 average.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Optimus Prime

[damianslaw]

The very low maxima this month has been largely due to lack of sunshine, combined with winds off a colder than normal north sea. Clear skies right now whilst they would produce v cold nights, would no doubt help push maxima into High single digit figures thanks to higher solar energy. This month is turning into an exceptional month for optimum cold northern blocking, the end of march 13 is the equivalent of late nov

10, which brought exceptional degree of early winter cold. If anyone back in say march 08 would have said we would experience 5 rotten wet chilly summers, one of the coldest winters of the 20 century in

09/10, the coldest end to november in recorded history, the coldest dec in over 100 years and now possibly coldest march in 50 years, would have taken them seriously, given how at the time we had endured 20 years of ever increasing warmth.

How many colder than average months have we had in the last 12 months, i think it is about 8.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Can anyone tell me how cold the last 2 weeks of March are looking and how far back we would have to go to find an equivalent end to March as we are having/forecast to have?

Edited March 25, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Roger J Smith]

Just read back a couple of pages, this has been extensively documented. Most of the similar cases are way back before any of us were born. 1799 had a very cold spell at the end of March and beginning of April. More recently, 1917 had a major snowfall event in the first two days of April. In "modern" times there have been few cases that even approximate what's being seen this week, at this time of year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Aye, colder than average months seem to be coming thick and fast at the minute. I wonder if in time we'll see the running average (that the Metoffice use) drop against its predecessor in years to come? An interesting thought.

[Weather-history]

10th January - 24th March 2013: 2.8C

4 of the last 5 winters or the coldest period of the seasonal cycle contained at least a 10 week period that was sub 3C

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2012-13

[stewfox]

Just read back a couple of pages, this has been extensively documented. Most of the similar cases are way back before any of us were born. 1799 had a very cold spell at the end of March and beginning of April. More recently, 1917 had a major snowfall event in the first two days of April. In "modern" times there have been few cases that even approximate what's being seen this week, at this time of year.

[stewfox]

There was a major early April snow event i think it was 1989 but it had all gone within 24hrs. we have a snowman that has lasted 9 days and counting now that is amazing for the time of year. got to be coldest week for whole CET period surely.

[Weather-history]

What has been so unusual about this March is that it did not start off that cold and that the cold is going to persist to the end of the month. Even March 1962 last few days were milder than the rest of the month, March 1969's last two days were much milder and also for March 1883.

The way things are going, the last 8 days of March 2013 could turn out 3C colder than the first 8 days.

[AderynCoch]

An exceptional month it has to be said. I've just seen some of the photos and even Liverpool's had decent snow in recent days.

I could do with some of that snow where I am (where it's been stupidly hot).

[SomeLikeItHot]

An exceptional month it has to be said. I've just seen some of the photos and even Liverpool's had decent snow in recent days.

I could do with some of that snow where I am (where it's been stupidly hot).

Stupidly hot is just "normal" in Kununurra!

[Summer Sun]

3.2c to the 25th

[Weather-history]

The last 6 days need a CET mean of......to get to.......

19.2 --------> 6.3

16.1 --------> 5.7

12.5 --------> 5.0

9.4 ---------> 4.4

6.8 ---------> 3.9

5.3 ---------> 3.6

0.7 ----------> 2.7

We are not going to beat March 1883 value of 1.9C

So it looks a cert now of the first sub 4C March since 1970

[Radiating Dendrite]

The last 6 days need a CET mean of......to get to.......

19.2 --------> 6.3

16.1 --------> 5.7

12.5 --------> 5.0

9.4 ---------> 4.4

6.8 ---------> 3.9

5.3 ---------> 3.6

0.7 ----------> 2.7

We are not going to beat March 1883 value of 1.9C

So it looks a cert now of the first sub 4C March since 1970

I like the 19.2c to get to 6.3c.

So basically we need the last five days to be a repeat of August 1995!

Hopefully we will get a downward correction. I am thinking 2.8c as the likely figure at the moment.

[Weather-history]

23rd-25th March 2012: 11.3C

23rd-25th March 2013: 0.5C

Bit of a difference!

[Radiating Dendrite]

23rd-25th March 2012: 11.3C

23rd-25th March 2013: 0.5C

Bit of a difference!

Indeed.

Is this quite rare or are there many cases of a 11c difference between the same period over two consecutive years?

I could see winter recording something like -3c and 7c etc?

[March Blizzard]

23rd-25th March 2012: 11.3C

23rd-25th March 2013: 0.5C

Bit of a difference!

Chalk and Cheese. Could easily end up with a difference in the final CET between March 2012 and March 2013 of 6C, maybe as much as 6.5C! One of the warmest Marches on record followed by one of the coldest.

[Roger J Smith]

Not sure what's worse, this weather or the national anthem of Montenegro.

[DAVID SNOW]

The very low maxima this month has been largely due to lack of sunshine, combined with winds off a colder than normal north sea. Clear skies right now whilst they would produce v cold nights, would no doubt help push maxima into High single digit figures thanks to higher solar energy. This month is turning into an exceptional month for optimum cold northern blocking, the end of march 13 is the equivalent of late nov

10, which brought exceptional degree of early winter cold. If anyone back in say march 08 would have said we would experience 5 rotten wet chilly summers, one of the coldest winters of the 20 century in

09/10, the coldest end to november in recorded history, the coldest dec in over 100 years and now possibly coldest march in 50 years, would have taken them seriously, given how at the time we had endured 20 years of ever increasing warmth.

How many colder than average months have we had in the last 12 months, i think it is about 8.

Yes indeed,and now the coldest march since Victorian times................

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 18z GFS would have the CET on 2.7C for the 31st.

2.5 to 3.0C the likely landing zone after corrections methinks

[DAVID SNOW]

Yes indeed,and now the coldest march since Victorian times................

Edit, ok second to March 1962 then,and what followed was a cool year, then winter 1963

[Summer Sun]

3.1c to the 26th

[SomeLikeItHot]

3.1 to the 26ths.

Before adjustments 2.7-2.8 looks like a very likely outcome, after adjustments then I agree with BFTV that 2.5-3.0 would seem likely.