South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 8th June 2013 onwards

[NUT]

It may not come off but this would be a peach for you lot in the south east for storms next thursday: (I think)

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21611.png

[lottiekent]

Evening SE'ies

Up to 19.2c here today despite persistent gloom and hill fog for much of the day. Brightened a while ago and saw a glimpse of the sun before it clouded over again!

I see SkyWarn have a watch in place for most of the UK tomorrow: http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

"THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ELEVATED, DAYTIME HEATING AND A LONGER OVERLAND FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS ALL PARTS OF ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SCOTLAND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK WILL BE AT GREATER RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. ALL AREAS HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF TORNADOES, THOUGH AGAIN THIS RISK IS GREATER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. "

Can't see any storms sparking off in the SE though? (Sorry about the shouty caps on the quote, I'm on the iPad and I can't undo it!)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I take it you weren't in Portsmouth last Friday then ??

Funny you say that, I actually was !!! Now thats the best thing thats happened since 2006! I got woken up by that really early storm that hit the IOW, such awesome thunder it was and loved every minute of it. Two hours later seeing the sky to the South turn jet black from the main storm system that pushed out of France was incredible too, it really brought a nostalgic 90's feel with it ! 

I'm back in Peterborough now though, and as far as I know, EA, E Midlands and the South East have still not seen anything remotely interesting yet al all. These 90's plumes hit our areas slap bang on and were so violent too, its just got to be lower solar activity and melting arctic ice combined I reckon, thats causing such low storm activity over the UK, but other areas across Europe will no doubt see more storms on the other side of the coin. I have patience still for this summer as the main prime time normally comes towards the end of June and all of July and August as well. 

I'm praying hard for some decent imports this summer, and if one does happen, I will watch every second of it ! A lesson has been learnt, never take a storm in the UK for granted, because at the rate we are seeing them, it may well be one of the last ones you see! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

You and me both. Love a decent summer storm, especially those coming up from the SW-SE. The night time ones are the best. Love the weather beforehand too, days of sun and heat.....very 90s weather. Good memories! Lets hope these last few years are just a 'blip'.

I really hope it is mate. 2007-2012 have been years to forget big time stormwise, except 28th June 2012 for the East Midlands which perhaps hit the record for how huge some of that hail was, it really was quite astonishing. Plus that Sleaford tornado as well.

That was a kind of very rare formation with a high to the East just managing to squeeze up some very hot air to meet the jet above that would normally bring the same old wet and cooler weather. Basically a narrowed down version of what happens in tornado alley over the Midlands happened that day. 

[Arid Acle]

Ah, that's more like it! Temp still reading 20C when I got home at 6.30pm. Balmy south westerly wind and dry as a bone. Liking this "Atlantic dominated weather"!

[Neilsouth]

Ah, that's more like it! Temp still reading 20C when I got home at 6.30pm. Balmy south westerly wind and dry as a bone. Liking this "Atlantic dominated weather"!

 

Same

[Snowangel-MK]

I quite like the sound of something robust destabilising my warm front tomorrow...here's hoping    

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #019
ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 11TH JUNE 2013

 

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS - ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND
LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - ENGLAND, WALES
TORNADOES - EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH JUNE 2013

 

A ROBUST WARM AIRMASS WILL BE ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD FROM THE BISCAY AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHARPLY OVERSPREADING UPPER JETSTREAM AND STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS. DESTABILISATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT, TRIPLE POINT AND SOUTH OF THE JET NOSE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY SATURATED PROFILE.

DISCUSSION: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND, AS A WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS SURGES NORTHEAST. THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THIS PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, WITH FURTHER INITIATION FROM THE RESURGENT JETSTREAM AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WALES AND ENGLAND. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ELEVATED, DAYTIME HEATING AND A LONGER OVERLAND FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS ALL PARTS OF ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SCOTLAND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK WILL BE AT GREATER RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. ALL AREAS HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF TORNADOES, THOUGH AGAIN THIS RISK IS GREATER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Jezzer]

Annoyingly the nicest part of the day, feels lovely in the sun. Shame it's 8pm!

[Snowangel-MK]

Annoyingly the nicest part of the day, feels lovely in the sun. Shame it's 8pm!

 

It's been like that a lot here recently .... it's perfect for an evening walking the dogs and a sneaky drink in the pub garden though

[lottiekent]

Great minds think alike MK (as per my post, no.202!)

I quite like the sound of something robust destabilising my warm front tomorrow...here's hoping

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #019

ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 11TH JUNE 2013

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS - ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - ENGLAND, WALES

TORNADOES - EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH JUNE 2013

A ROBUST WARM AIRMASS WILL BE ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD FROM THE BISCAY AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHARPLY OVERSPREADING UPPER JETSTREAM AND STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS. DESTABILISATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT, TRIPLE POINT AND SOUTH OF THE JET NOSE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY SATURATED PROFILE.

DISCUSSION: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND, AS A WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS SURGES NORTHEAST. THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THIS PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, WITH FURTHER INITIATION FROM THE RESURGENT JETSTREAM AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WALES AND ENGLAND. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ELEVATED, DAYTIME HEATING AND A LONGER OVERLAND FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS ALL PARTS OF ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SCOTLAND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK WILL BE AT GREATER RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. ALL AREAS HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF TORNADOES, THOUGH AGAIN THIS RISK IS GREATER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Edited June 11, 2013 by lottiekent

[Bluebreezer54]

Funny you say that, I actually was !!! Now thats the best thing thats happened since 2006! I got woken up by that really early storm that hit the IOW, such awesome thunder it was and loved every minute of it. Two hours later seeing the sky to the South turn jet black from the main storm system that pushed out of France was incredible too, it really brought a nostalgic 90's feel with it ! 

 

There ya go then, you didn't even have to chase it, so why the moan earlier It was quite an epic storm by all accounts, and pretty much unpredicted.

[Bluebreezer54]

Seems rather odd that Skywarn are the only ones predicting such a widespread outbreak.........no-one else seems to have anything of note in store for the southern half of the country tomorrow ?

[Snowangel-MK]

Great minds think alike MK (as per my post, no.202!)

 

 

Didn't see that Lottie, I'm only just catching up with this afternoon's posts....isn't it annoying when work gets in the way of play 

 

 

Knowing my luck if we get anything here it will be when I'm inside the theatre tomorrow evening !

[abruzzi spur]

It's been like that a lot here recently .... it's perfect for an evening walking the dogs and a sneaky drink in the pub garden though

Hi Ali, wish I'd thought of that!

 

Just nipped outside to find a mild, damp, still evening with plenty of daylight around.  I'm becoming increasingly delusional as I get older, convincing myself that summer nights get dark later and that the sun rises earlier.  Either I am right and the world is shifting on its axis, or I am still, at the age of 47, full of wishful thinking.....  the big dilemma for me is whether my love of snow, the longing for which has sustained me through all sorts of winters, is now something that I would trade for all year warmth and real summer heat.  Tricky introspective question, but for the first time this year I have pictured November but only with a heavy heart.  Interesting (for me at least)

 

AS

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ Are you sure you haven't already spent most of this evening in the pub garden AS ??

[abruzzi spur]

^^ Are you sure you haven't already spent most of this evening in the pub garden AS ??

 No BB, but with wishful thinking I can pretend! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

There ya go then, you didn't even have to chase it, so why the moan earlier It was quite an epic storm by all accounts, and pretty much unpredicted.

It was the most unpredicted storm Ive ever witnessed tbh. Apart from when I was a kid in the 90's! Looked around, and all it was, was blue skies from horizon to horizon. Saw forecasts from the previous day showing cloudless NE'erlies like what we had seen all week long, only to be awakened by thunder at 5AM, I just checked netweather as soon as I heard it, as I was like what the hell is going on here!! Then just saw all them strikes on lightning detector. It was awesome and a real surprise! 

The thing is, closer to home we have seen very little activity at all, normally over the decades, London northwards over the home counties towards Peterborough, Norwich and places such as Northampton and Leicester see their fair share of decent storms. Its only the South coast last Friday that has seen anything in the last 5+ years. Im just worried that this will be a continuing trend, which I hope it isn't!

[Keraunic]

According to the 'will it thunder' charts...there is a 32% risk for Norwich tomorrow. Oh well, it's better than nowt. I'm a tad fed up so I could do with some thunder.

[stainesbloke]

Hi Ali, wish I'd thought of that!Just nipped outside to find a mild, damp, still evening with plenty of daylight around. I'm becoming increasingly delusional as I get older, convincing myself that summer nights get dark later and that the sun rises earlier. Either I am right and the world is shifting on its axis, or I am still, at the age of 47, full of wishful thinking..... the big dilemma for me is whether my love of snow, the longing for which has sustained me through all sorts of winters, is now something that I would trade for all year warmth and real summer heat. Tricky introspective question, but for the first time this year I have pictured November but only with a heavy heart. Interesting (for me at least)AS

I'd trade cold/snow for a lovely hot summer anytime, and I love snow! Just detest cool, grey days at this time of year. We get enough in winter where they belong.

[Charltonkerry]

Another dull, damp,dark and dreary day in a dismally disappointing dirty Dartford.

Edited June 12, 2013 by Charltonkerry

[Coast]

Good morning.

 

Extremely dull and dark this morning and nothing really to commend the day to you all so far, sorry.

[lottiekent]

Morning

Same here Coast - damp, drizzly and overcast. Mild though, currently 14.4c after a low of 13.4c.

Have a good day everyone.

[Coast]

Same here Coast - damp, drizzly and overcast. Mild though, currently 14.4c after a low of 13.4c.

 

It's hardly weather at all! (well, the very worst kind) and in June as well. Luckily there are other things to concentrate on and sometimes being darker helps.....

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

 

There is defiantly weather here...of the damp and windy variety unfortunately 

 

Never mind we are half way through the week already so it's all down hill to the weekend....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

Have a look at the period from the 18th June onwards regards convection - is this where we will start to see a good thunderstorm??